Does History Repeat Itself? Weed Giant Tilray Pharmaceuticals is certainly an interesting stock to pay attention to as it hits a key long-term support level of around $2.48 a share. In the past, the stock has shown its ability to have absolutely ridiculous spikes in price.
By dividing the chart's history into time cycles, one can see that there are clear similarities between the movements of prices between 2018 to 2021 and 2021 to 2023. In times 1 and 2 of the cycle, the stock has fallen, and then in part 3 of the cycle, the stock has fallen to and rebounded off a key support level. Finally, in time 4 of the cycle, the stock rebounded off a higher swing low and had an incredible rally of 1434.57% over 140 days. Now the stock is in time 4 of the cycle again, and so if the stock rebounds off a high swing low, it could have another strong rally if history repeats.
Right now, this is a low-conviction trade since the stock could very well fall through support and not repeat history, but since it is near its support level, this trade has a very high potential reward compared to the risk, and I will be trading this with a small portfolio allocation by either waiting for a clear bullish reversal pattern of a higher swing low or by buying at the support level, with a stop loss slightly below the support level.
