ALLIANZ ALV Divstock Maybe I get some at the marked area.
I think about entering market at the marked area and later add more to my position when price crosses SMA(89) after broken out of the downward trend line.
Feel free to like and comment.
ALV trade ideas
Allianz SE to correct 40% in 2024?On the above 12 day chart price action has appreciated 70% since late 2022. The outlook for future growth maybe about to change as the flood waters threaten to submerge the performance of this Munich based institution.
Why the bearish outlook?
1) Price action and RSI support breakouts.
2) Volume is exiting the market following overbought conditions. See 2 week chart below and look left. The Money flow index now informs the outward flow.
3) The rising wedge and breakout confirms. A forecast to 155 is estimated.
Is it possible price action continues increasing? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
2-week MFI
Correction Not Yet FinishedIt is a little bit difficult to describe what I see.
2 different VWAPs(a rising and a having turned downward) indicate a bottom and on Friday we have re-entered a 3rd VWAP which is following the downtrend since 15th September.
In my opinion this says that we shall test the upper lines of the price band.
I know that this seems to be a bit strange but due to my experience this is the more likely outcome.
Good stock to keep into your portfolio long termAllianz has started 2023 very positively. First quarter results are solid, shares buyback has been announced, together with a good 5% ish dividend and further investments. I am looking at entering a long position for the long-term. In case of short-term downfall (1 or 2 years from now), there will be possibility of cost-averaging the position.
If you want to swing trade this stock, I would wait for confirmation of a breakout of the 230 level, or wait for a possible retracement to 180. Keep your risk management in check.
Allianz Germany Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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Allianz (ALVD) Breaking All-Time High – Stocks - DailyCAPITALCOM:ALVD
Taking a look at Allianz (ALVD) on the daily chart, we can see that it's reached an all-time high that it hasn't seen since February 2020.
Once reaching its peak in February (at the price of approximately 231), it reversed and dropped straight down to 116 in a matter of days. It took two years to recover, and now it is hovering at 231 once again.
The analysis shows the extended downward trendline from the high point in February, moving across the peaks in June 2021. If the price was still below this line, I would be inclined to consider it still in a downtrend. But using the 1-2-3 change method and having the price close above this line of resistance, we can assume that it is in an uptrend now.
An upward trendline marks the movement from the falling price back in 2020 along the valley of the price through September and December of 2021.
Currently, the price is on a massive incline uptrend, which is enhanced by an upward tightening wedge. Using the Fibonacci retracement, we can also see that there seems to be a partial rise indicating that an upward breakout is imminent.
If the price breaks through this barrier, then there are no resistance levels standing in its way. This could mean that price will climb to a new all-time high but determining where that is could be difficult.
The long option here would be to set your stop loss below the Fibonacci retracement level of 38% and then go for a solid 5% increase in price from the breakout point (which is 232 about). This would yield you a reward ratio of 2 to 1. It might not be the most considerable trade, but you could run with the breakout and see where it goes.
One of the negative factors I would consider is that selling pressure on the previous valleys has been very high compared to the averages. Moreover, the last time the price reached this level, it plummeted. Thus I would wait for the price to close above 232 before going long.
ALV long postition openedHello traders,
Yesterday I opened up a postition in XETR:ALV opening at 179. We did this because the support line was tested for the third time and held it once more.
ALV will be announcing earnings on the 5th of august. It will be interesting to see what happens here.
Our stop loss is currently sitting at 171.7.
If you would like to see more of my trades in more detail I recently started an account on Etoro.
www.etoro.com
PS: I'm in no way an experienced trader, nor is this investing advice. I't is mainly just for me to keep a record of my charts and review them at a later time. Feel free to use the information as you like :)
Overbought to Oversold: The Crucial Addition!Here's why most algorithms fail. They don't take into account the context you needed it to.
Here's why it's hard to correct that: you need something OUTSIDE of the raw number-crunching that you're doing in order to understand what's happening. If you're very good at that, you're already a profitable trader to begin with! In that case, it can be discouraging to move to a different platform where, at least to begin with, you don't see yourself making any move into profitable territory any time soon.
In this example, I used a raw "overbought to oversold" strategy that looks at RSI crossing from overbought/oversold to fair value to time exits and entries. The problem is, results vary widely. Sometimes, it is right 95% of the time for hundreds and hundreds of bars. Other times, it stops you out thirty times in a row. Whenever you see this type of erratic behavior, you know something outside of the stochastic nature of asset prices is playing its part.
This is why you need to understand what you're doing; what you're coding, and why the results are what they are. What kind of indicator is RSI? When does it work, and when does it fail? When you realize RSI is an oscillating momentum indicator, it's not hard to figure out it does well when a stock is ranging, and does poorly if it's strongly trending. RSI can be seen hitting overbought a dozen times during a strong bull run without the price action showing more than a few small pull-backs along the way. Makes sense: it is essentially built to analyze what it thinks of price action if you'd assume that the price will stay within the same range, or is given time to consolidate after having broken out of a previous range. When you understand this, the answer to our erratic algorithm becomes clear.
We need a trend indicator that stays flat enough when a stock is showing certain types of ranging behavior, but steep enough when it rallies for long enough or ranges so wildly during an erratic time that RSI won't measure it correctly. If we try to do this with a simple moving average, the problem you'll encounter is that it's either too reactive or too sluggish. You want to have some indication on the slope of the moving average, which indicates trend rather than momentum. The difference in slopes in the near term could be read as a form of "MACD", which is obviously momentum, but if you take it day-over-day, it more or less indicates the general trend direction.
Now, we can see on the chart below how we're not trading when RSI is misrepresenting the "overbought" and "oversold" states because it failed to take into account price action and trend, while trading very accurately when the stock is ranging. That's a home run algorithm waiting to enter the next stages: adding optional functionalities, optimization, and a battery of backtests.
Whether you want to build an algo, or trade manually, simply understanding how indicators can complement one another and how you can quantify your pre-existing intuition for "ranging" and "trending" without using complex variables and indicators beyond simple differences of moving averages can be hugely beneficial to your development as a trader.
Hope you learned something and happy trading!
ALLIANZ STOCK : Maintain in your walletAfter the breaking recent of 200 SMA, There is a high probability that QLLIANZ STOCKS continue to up and gets to a level of 212,74 EUR,
Push like if you think this is a useful idea! Before to trade my ideas make your own analysis. Write your comments and questions here! Thanks for your support!
Allianz SE (ALV - Xetra) - ABC zigzag wave patternAllianz SE (ALV - Xetra) is in ABC zigzag wave pattern from major top made in Daily time frame. It already completed B wave in complex correction and after completion of B wave, it started under-performing DAX index and moving down in C wave. Now 3rd of 3rd wave starts moving down, which should be much sharper.
