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ADVANCED MIC.DEV. DL-,01

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AMD trade ideas

1/10/25 - $amd - Opening 2.5% position as of open1/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AMD Opening 2.5% position as of open copy/pasting my chat w D on the USSA's day off for dead prez. bc situation fluid, but want to do this timely. AMD is a buy here in a YE context. will size up closer to $100 is TL;DR V the short answer is we're probably much closer to a floor than where stock will be in a 1-2Y context. interestingly they spend a massive amt of $ on a relative basis (e.g. as a % of revenue) vs. peers on R&D. for perspective NVDA is ~7-8 bn last year, amd is approaching 6 bn. so optically this "hurts" EBITDA mgn, cf generation etc. etc. and stock looks relatively more expensive. but given su's ties to jensen (cousins i believe), what she's done w the biz, their now will-be leadership in x86 and move into more interesting applications (datacenter)... the GM should begin to flex sooner than later - so the right bogey (if there's confidence here in leadership) is probably not a '25 # but a '26 figure. should we not see any ST hiccups in 25 the stock will be a double between here and YE '26. it's objectively cheap considering execution risk. this is a tough one for me - i've been trading AMD since the late '90s (albeit with less experience vs. today) and caused me to ultimately short it on that meteoric rise it had in the last 5-10y only to realize... something was different. zooming out - it's hard to deny execution has been good (they've basically dethroned intc from a technical advantage going back several years, and they have a capable team attacking new surfaces). given trump, china, high 10Y rates etc. etc. nevermind it's been a weaker semi into year end '24 and to start this year... it's unclear beyond a broader sector reversal what fundamental factors/ announcements will move the stock decisively and effectively putting a true floor on the stock. if your downside is say 20% or maybe at most 25% here, but upside (from same pt here ~$120) is also 20-25% with decent degree of confidence given cash gen, not expensive etc. etc. but where upside scenario is 100% in 2Y and downside scenario still might only be 35-40%... it's clearly a "buy". now what size is critical. do you run a concentrated book ( NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA will lead), can you rotate out of winners into laggards these are all portfolio decisions that depend on factors, mostly personal. but if you asked me point black "is it a buy, yes or no". the answer is, yes. i might copy this answer b/c i've gotten this question from like 5 ppl in the last 5 days lol but haven't spelled it out in so much detail. i'd also like to understand if anyone has a real information edge here , or where we should be looking. i'd guess gross margin (and by extension gross profit) will be the main driver of stock as it portends successful use of R&D spend and CF flex w/ growth. in that vein, you could probably put this at 3% fcf and with such high growth "re-rate 30-50%" into year end (from current levels). near $100 the stock is a 5% position, esp if it's only market related beta sell off e.g. trump comes in and everything gets whacked immediately on some tariff news or anti-china blah blah etc. that's an ez size up. my guess is it's probably worth a 1% spot here with a wait and see approach to take it to 1.5% (even higher nevermind lower) and if we do get some 10-15% further pullback, 3% makes sense and any additional 5% probably should add 1% per 5%. in other words you're at 5% at close to $100 give or take with great risk reward for that capital to remain patient for the year. hope that helps give my POV.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by VROCKSTAR
1
AMD Weekly Chart Support and Resistance Levels: Key Support: AMD has found strong support around the $115-$120 zone, as marked on the chart. Resistance Target: The upside target is set at $177, representing a potential 46% gain if the stock reclaims higher levels. Indicators: SMA 20 and SMA 50: The price is currently below both the SMA 20 ($143.19) and SMA 50 ($136.60), indicating a bearish trend in the medium term. However, this could shift if AMD breaks above these levels in the coming weeks. RSI (14): RSI is at 38.41, indicating the stock is approaching oversold territory. This could signal a potential reversal if buyers step in. Volume: The volume has remained steady, but any significant breakout or breakdown would need to be confirmed by higher-than-average trading volume. Risk/Reward: Risk: The stop loss is set just below the $115 support level to minimize downside exposure. Reward: The target price of $177 offers a favorable risk/reward ratio of over 2:1. Market Context: AMD is currently consolidating after a substantial decline from its peak. This setup might attract buyers looking for a technical bounce or a reversal pattern.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Missmoyeu
1
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD): Bearish Momentum Testing Key 🔥 Potential Price Targets (Next Month): 🩸 Near-term Goal: $116.00 🩸 Long-term Goal: $110.00 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy: 🩸 Long: Above $124.64, targeting $130.00 and $135.00. Bulls need a strong reversal backed by volume to regain momentum. 🩸 Short: Below $120.12, aiming for $116.00 and $110.00. Weak MACD and declining sentiment point to further downside risks. 🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands: 🩸 Resistance: $124.64 – Clearing this level could signal a potential recovery. 🩸 Support: $120.12 – A breakdown here would confirm bearish continuation. Analysis: AMD is trading in a prolonged downtrend, with MACD firmly in negative territory. The stock is struggling below both the 9-day EMA ($124.64) and the 200-day EMA ($145.20), confirming bearish sentiment. Volume is declining, reflecting weak buyer interest. Traders should closely monitor support and resistance levels for the next decisive move. 👑 "Opportunities lie in disciplined execution during uncertain times." — LucanInvestor
NASDAQ:AMD
by LucanInvestor
AMD Bullish break-out above the 3-month Resistance.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) opened (and closed) yesterday above the 3-month Channel Down pattern that started after the October 09 2024 High and that is technically a strong bullish break-out signal. The previous break-out in August 2024, eventually reached the 0.786 Fibonacci extension, which was the October 09 2024 High, before declining again. Even though we are long-term bullish on AMD, as it even kept clear the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is its multi-month Support, we expect it to reach at least $160.00 (just below the 0.786 Fib) on the short-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by TradingShot
2
Market Close Update: AMD Continuation Long PlayAMD continued pushing higher today, alongside NVDA, after gaining $28+ per share over the past 2 trading sessions. The partnership with StradVision on providing chips to support their Perception Based Autonomous AI Systems with the goal of delivering high-performance perception solutions for automated driving systems. Looking for a potential entry around $128.90 with at least a $133.42 Short-Term Price Target, but retesting $144.36, it's most recent High that it tested at the beginning of December 2024. Will setting our Stop Loss around $127.40 moving forward if we're able to obtain a slight pullback to get that $128 entry. Follow us for more to connect and stay tuned with more at MyMI Wallet. @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by MyMIWallet
AMD for STRONG buyWhy Buy AMD Stock? Market Leadership in Semiconductor Industry AMD is a globally recognized leader in the semiconductor industry, producing high-performance CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing technologies. Its innovative products cater to a wide range of markets, including gaming, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and embedded systems. Strong Financial Performance AMD has consistently demonstrated robust financial growth, driven by strong product demand, strategic acquisitions, and efficient cost management. Its competitive product lineup continues to drive revenue growth and profitability. Growing Market Opportunities The increasing adoption of AI, machine learning, cloud computing, and 5G technology creates a substantial growth opportunity for AMD's advanced processors and GPUs. The company is well-positioned to capture market share in these rapidly growing sectors. Innovation and Product Pipeline AMD’s commitment to innovation is evident in its cutting-edge product releases, such as the Ryzen series CPUs, Radeon GPUs, and EPYC processors. These products provide industry-leading performance and efficiency, making them highly sought-after in the technology market. Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx and strategic partnerships with industry leaders like Microsoft, Sony, and Amazon strengthen its product portfolio and expand its reach into new markets like JUST BUY AND HOLD.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by Herkous
AMD = The Trader Slayer!NASDAQ:AMD We got a lot going on here with AMD! - In the volume gap and could fall down to the shelf at $108 or we could have just hit a double bottom with a breakout spot at $174ish. -H5 Indicator is RED and they are in a downtrend while also forming a Bull Flag (barely). -Sitting on the bottom of the Wr% and could form a downtrend box or start running to the upside. It all makes sense to me. This name is an extremely difficult name to trade and has eaten the best traders whole, myself included. One thing is clear to me! trying to trade this name right now with all of these mixed signals is risky-business! I'm steering clear until we get some certainty! No price targets because who knows whats gonna happen. 🤣 Not financial advice.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by RonnieV29
9
Long AMDFundamentally, AMD maintains a strong position in the semiconductor industry, with a consensus among 31 Wall Street analysts rating the stock as a 'Moderate Buy.' The average price target is $191.96, indicating a potential upside of approximately 59% from the current price. Recent developments, such as increased demand for AI-driven technologies, have positively impacted AMD's stock performance. AMD's current price of $124.27 places it near the lower boundary of its regression channel, approximately two standard deviations below the mean. Statistically, prices this far from the mean represent extreme movements, occurring only about 5% of the time under normal distribution assumptions. This significant deviation suggests a high probability of mean reversion, particularly for a well-established stock like AMD, which operates in a cyclical yet fundamentally robust sector like semiconductors. Given AMD's strong fundamentals, including its leadership in high-performance computing and AI-driven solutions, there is a reasonable expectation for its stock price to move back toward the mean during 2025. Historically, stocks that deviate this significantly often see a correction as market sentiment stabilizes. Combined with Wall Street's consensus price target of $191.96, indicating substantial upside potential, and the broader semiconductor industry's expected growth, this setup suggests a favorable risk-reward profile for long-term investors considering AMD at its current levels.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by tynichols
2
$AMD - things could be betterNASDAQ:AMD has been an absolute pain-trade for me. I committed the sin of not waiting for the bottom signal and not managing risks when the trade didn't work. But things might be looking a little better. Both MACD and RSI are turning up, signaling that we may have at least found the bottom and there's a possibility of a potential reversal. 👀 See support and targets in the chart. As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
NASDAQ:AMD
by PaperBozz
AMD Analysis: Navigating Historical Trends 2025.01.01Hello, this is Greedy All-Day. Today’s analysis focuses on AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). Weekly Chart Analysis Looking at AMD's weekly chart, the stock has followed a historical long-term trendline since the 1970s. Over the years, there have been four major trendline breaks, each followed by substantial corrections: 87%, 75%, 93%, and 54% corrections from the trendline break points, with an average correction of approximately 77%. Importantly, these corrections are measured from the trendline break, not the stock's all-time high. Recently, AMD has broken below its long-term trendline again. This suggests we should be prepared for the possibility of a 77% correction from this point. Where Would a 77% Correction Lead? A 77% correction from the trendline break would bring AMD to approximately $35. The $35 Zone: Why It’s Significant The $35 level is particularly noteworthy because: It aligns with the green box zone, which acted as a resistance area before AMD’s breakout to all-time highs in 2018–2019. It coincides with a retest zone in the white box, where historical support was tested. It also matches historical resistance dating back to the 2000s, making it a logical retest zone. If AMD were to rebound, $35 would be a strong candidate for a turnaround point. Bearish Indicators Several factors point to a continued bearish trend: AMD appears to have completed a symmetrical triangle pattern with a downside breakout. It has broken below the August 5, 2024 weekly low, a key support level. The only remaining support is at $116.37, marked by the green box. If $116.37 breaks, and the pattern turns out to be a descending triangle, the target could exceed 85%, reaching levels even lower than $35. Currently, AMD is trading within the white box supply zone. A break below $116.37 opens the door to $93, the lower boundary of the white box. However, if AMD moves like it did in the red box supply zone in the past, we could see an expanded downward pattern. Historically, AMD has experienced declines of up to 67% from its highs, which supports the possibility of further downside. When to Buy? Based on AMD’s historical behavior: Optimal Buy Zone: If AMD drops approximately 70%, reaching $35, it could represent a long-term investment opportunity. This level aligns with key historical support zones and could serve as an excellent entry for investors looking to capitalize on AMD's growth potential. Conservative Buy Levels for Upside Momentum: First Entry: When AMD breaks above the weekly 20 EMA, currently at $140.35. This level is still far from the current price. Second Entry: Upon a breakout above the yellow box supply zone, which marks the upper boundary of the descending triangle pattern. While the pattern and resistance trendline are broken, overhead supply zones remain significant obstacles. Third Entry: If the purple box (Ichimoku Cloud) on the weekly chart provides support, this could also indicate a potential entry point. Conclusion AMD is a unique stock that may not be well-suited for gradual accumulation due to its high volatility and tendency for deep corrections. While it has been a market leader during bullish periods, the stock’s history shows frequent, severe pullbacks of 70% or more. This makes timing critical for successful trades. Bearish Outlook: The current trend is downward, and there’s potential for the stock to drop further, possibly to the $35 zone. Bullish Outlook: For buyers, $35 could represent a once-in-a-decade opportunity to accumulate shares if AMD’s long-term growth narrative remains intact. Alternatively, entering on clear breakout levels with a cautious approach is advised. Investors must remain patient and disciplined, waiting for either a deep correction or a confirmed trend reversal. Only then can AMD offer the high reward-to-risk opportunities it’s historically known for. Let’s stay sharp and trade wisely. 🚀
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by Greedy_allday
2
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES $AMD | CHIP STOCKS FALL DOWN Dec11'24ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES NASDAQ:AMD | CHIP STOCKS FALL Dec11'24 NASDAQ:AMD BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $141.50 - $166.50 NASDAQ:AMD DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $134.50 - $141.50 NASDAQ:AMD SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $110.00 - $134.50 NASDAQ:AMD Trends: NASDAQ:AMD Weekly Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:AMD Daily Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:AMD 4H Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:AMD 1H Trend: Bearish NASDAQ:AMD Oct29 earnings release started bearish trend. Bears should start targeting the previous quarter's lows. Price is currently breaking my indicator's range to the downside, and all display indicators are pointing to a bearish trend for $amd. Recently, bearish momentum breaks down from the DNT range this week. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! trendanalysis, trendtrading, priceaction, priceactiontrading, technicalindicators, supportandresistance, rangebreakout, rangebreakdown, rangetrading, chartpatterntrading, chartpatterns, advancedmicrodevices, amd, NASDAQ:AMD , chipstocks, microchips, microchipdevices, google, googledrive, googlechip, googlesupercomputer, smci, supermicro, nvda, nvidia, nasdaq, ndq, qqq, techstocks,
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by TonyAiello
4