CAT bear call spread
CAT bear call spread
CAT rally up into an 1h liquidity shelf 232-234 RBD origin supply zone.
At the time, it looked good as I got the alert.
Sold 237.50 calls with 240 bought.
3 DTE, 22% ROI
Now that I look at it doing this write up, the Apr 29 opening candle was a liquidity spike search up at the open.
I should've waited until above 234.70 and sold the 240 strike.
I did my best to structure the trade behind all the March and April spike highs.
So market must break the range and hold it up there to get me.
Hopefully buyers run out of steam in the 233 range and sellers start to exert again to give me a push lower into Friday
CAT1 trade ideas
CAT Price MovementBased on the chart, we see there is a support level of $227 and a resistance of $238. The Bollinger Band (45D) suggests that the price is about drop being that it is above the midline, pushing the upper band. Furthermore, Andrew’s Pitchfork is yet another confirmation of a falling price. Some other key indicators are the RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, and MACD, which are all signaling a sell off in the near term. Below are the numerical values for those. Also, look at the value. There is a depletion of customer sentiment and buying so the price will continue to drop to the support range.
What I foresee happening is a price drop to around $225 to $227, which will require entry confirmation to maximize profits. Furthermore, I foresee the long-term value of this firm to be $284 based on both fundamental values, historical chart trends, and enterprise value. Keep an eye on their earning as well. Based on what they reported last earnings call, they were above 2.12 but had to make adjustments and it was standardized at 1.42, falling short but their price still surged. I foresee this happening again. They are expected at 1.94 but I believe it will be 2 based on what they are doing at the moment. Again, I see the price dropping to around $225 from most recent data then increasing to $245-250 (8.88% to 10%) but ultimately hitting $284 for long term investors.
Here are the fundamental and technical data highlights:
- Sector: Industrials
- Industry: Machinery
- Market Cap: $127.25B
- Volume: 1.61M
- Revenue Growth Rate (Avg): 11.5%
- Net Income Growth Rate (Avg): 7%
- Cash-On-Hand: $8.8B
- 1-YR Returns: 115%
- EV: $155M -> Puts (PT) price target at ~$284 – intrinsically)
- ROE: ~22%
- Altman Z-Score: 2.3
- Bollinger Band (30) in contraction with price accumulation
- RSI: 62, minor sell signal
- Oscillator: 66, slightly overbought, confirming sell-off soon
- Andrew’s Pitchfork: Lower band broken
- MACD: Sell off with decreased volume
News around CAT:
- Energy & transportation segment back online and fully operational according to February 10K Annual Report
- Discontinued EIP shares repurchase plan 2nd half of 2020 but continued in 2021 Q1
- Brought in Gerald Johnson, Executive VP of Global Manufacturing of GM on March 1 – to target automotive production
- Energy include oil and natural gas
According to (EIA) U.S Energy Information Agency, WTI crude oil is at $63.46 per barrel, over doubled from last yr. Natural gas is at $2.658 MMBtu, over doubled from last year. Oil & natural gas inventories are down 11.2M barrels from a year earlier and 242 bcf from a year earlier. Current = 492M barrels and 1,845 Bcf. This means that demand is high and with continuation of operations and CAT being industry leader with a large volume of government contracts, they are going to see a large spike in revenue with major increases in overall stock value.
Happy Investing!
$CAT Short-term swingCAT looks bullish again on the daily chart. Looks ready in the indicators as they've turned bullish yet again. Both the RSI and Stoch RSI had a crossover last week. We put in an inside day last week after being below the recent pullback's VWAP and reclaimed demand on the upside. Looking closely at price action to confirm a bullish trend to continue higher or to reverse below the highs' anchored VWAP. It is also looking like a short-term flag that could break out from.
$CAT Daily Head And Shoulders 4/12 (Healthy Pullback)Video breakdown on $CAT going into 4/12-16
CAT has Rejected New highs and set up a head and shoulders. It seems to be sitting on top of its 20 EMA and best respects the 50EMA which is my target if the H&S plays out. More videos on my tradingview page $220 P for 4/16 closed at .34 not a bad risk to reward.
$CAT with a Neutral outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Neutral outlook for $CAT after a Negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C
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Caterpillar (CAT) is flashing sell on this chart, Thoughts?Based on the closing price for the past 3 days, CAT is lighting up my trading indicators like a Christmas Tree--a red Christmas tree. The RSI algorithm fired the first sell signal. 5 algorithms agreed it was time to sell based on Friday's close which means this coming week could get more nasty than the market was last week.
I have plotted all of the potential delays to the actual sell off followed by the potential target bottoms. All of these targets and days are based off of historical median and average price action when each signal triggers a SELL on the Daily chart. I received many major SELLs on Friday which is quite the confluence of future activities. I selected NOK, CAT, and AXP as there was a large amount of agreement across the timeframes. Last week was rough and preceded by a bearish MACD cross on the S&P 500 index. All of these signals taken together could spell a 20% correction in the near future.
The historical figures and reasons for each target are posted as always on my website in the signature block. Feel free to follow as we post new articles nearly everyday.
The Year of the Cat - Go Long CaterpillarHas has good relative strength during the recent market volatility. Check out the trendiness by looking at the tight price pattern following the turning line. The price is above a rising cloud pattern. Stay with it until the price falls below the Cloud. The Choppiness indicator is currently showing a strong trend, confirmed by the ADX/DMI. Look for the Year of the Cat.
CAT bullish flag rangeAs long as we are in this range CAT will continue its bullish accumulation and could go as far down as testing 100.
There is strong support there which gave us a great impulse up. There are many situations this can create right now.
Short pressure holds at 150...a clear expanding flat setup could be at play or bullish buttery extending
The long term move is UP...lots will be waiting for that breakout of this range! But where will it be??? will we tap 100 first before trying 200?? Ya I think so... we got close but not close enough!
manufacturing in the USA is ramping up. I would assume profits will come to CAT from many sources over the next 10 years.
Caterpillar LT (January 29th 2021)Caterpillar (CAT) (January 29th 2021 through 2022)
Low: $126
High: $378
Longer term idea based on some attempted Elliott wave stuff. Could be very wrong but just speculating here.
Shorter term zoom in related idea below:
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