CHV trade ideas
Chevron Corp (CVX - NYSE) - ABC wave pattern Chevron Corp (CVX - NYSE) has completed WXY in double zigzag pattern from bottom as indicated in chart. It dropped in impulse as wave A and correcting up in wave B, which might take 2-3 days to complete. Thereafter C wave will resume the fall in price action. CVX and XOM are about 22 - 22 % holding value of XLE etf, which drag it down as both has C wave down within 2-4 trading sessions. XOM & CVX have same pattern for C down sell after wave B over.
Bearish CVX Analysis
This look like a nice bearish setup. Price broke structure, then rallied to test the previous low. Price did not make any higher lows, it meet resistance at the 50.0 fib level. A double top was created which is a bearish candlestick formation pattern. The previous daly candle look to have formed a bearish candlestick.
Chevron downside targetsThanks for viewing,
After record (and very profitable) drops in Crude in the last few days, Chevron will be put under significant profitability pressure. Well, now we have dipped well below that due to:
- as yet unknown, but likely double digit reductions in global demand for crude oil,
- Russia not going along with the OPEC plan, which resulted in,
- Saudi Arabia (for some reason) discounting up to $6 per barrel and markedly INCREASING production,
- The stated aim of all this is to put higher US shale producers underwater - which may already be working.
It looks like there will be major pressure on all high cost oil producers (Saudi Arabia has an all in cost basis around $10 per barrel) for some time. I am not picking on Chevron especially - but considering their situation in light of their (and recently) likely break-even price above $40.
Where to from here? Probably a gap down when the markets open targeting below $72 in the short term, potentially much lower ($30 / share) if the price hangs around present (sub $30 per barrel) levels for any length of time. If Chevron gets that low, they make a lot of sense to pick up.
Any catalysts for a major price increase? Not while Iran is busy fighting their COVID-19 outbreak - they are likely too busy at the moment to continue their work destabilising oil refining and shipping in the middle east with drones and cruise missiles.