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How Prospect Theory and the Disposition Effect Influence Prices█ Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices In the research paper "Prospect Theory, the Disposition Effect, and Asset Prices," authors Yan Li and Liyan Yang delve into the implications of prospect theory on asset pricing and trading volume through the lens of the disposition effect. The disposition effect, a tendency to sell assets that have increased in value while holding onto assets that have declined, is a well-documented behavioral bias among investors. Results: The study finds that diminishing sensitivity predicts a disposition effect, price momentum, reduced return volatility, and a positive return-volume correlation. Conversely, loss aversion generally predicts opposite outcomes. █ Background and Theory ⚪ Agency theory examines the relationship between principals (owners) and agents (managers), focusing on aligning their interests through contracts and incentives. ⚪ Prospect theory , introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), is a behavioral model that describes how people make decisions involving risk and uncertainty. Unlike traditional utility theory, prospect theory suggests that people value gains and losses differently, leading to risk-averse behavior for gains and risk-seeking behavior for losses. Explanation of Risk Aversion and Loss Aversion Risk aversion is the tendency to prefer certainty over a gamble with a higher or equal expected value. In contrast, loss aversion implies that losses loom larger than gains, making individuals more sensitive to potential losses than to equivalent gains. This phenomenon is captured by the S-shaped value function in prospect theory, which is concave for gains and convex for losses. █ Methodology The research uses a comprehensive model to understand how psychological factors like fear of losses and changing sensitivity to gains and losses affect trading and market behavior. This model looks at both diminishing sensitivity (caring less about bigger changes) and loss aversion (fear of losing money) together. The study's data comes from traders and managers at four big investment banks, including people with different levels of experience and jobs. This gives a broad view of how trading behavior works at these banks. █ Findings Disposition Effect What's Happening: Investors tend to sell stocks that have gone up in value and hold onto stocks that have gone down. Why: Because they are highly sensitive to gains but less sensitive to losses. Evidence: The study shows that people are about 15% more likely to sell stocks that have gone up than those that have gone down. Price Momentum What's Happening: Because of the disposition effect, stock prices keep moving in the same direction for a while before correcting. Why: Investors sell winning stocks quickly and hold onto losing ones, so prices don’t adjust immediately to new information. Evidence: Stocks that performed well continue to do better than those that performed poorly, by about 1% per month over six months to a year. Higher Equity Premium What's Happening: Investors demand higher returns for holding riskier stocks due to fear of losses. Why: Loss aversion makes them want more return to compensate for the risk. Evidence: Historically, stocks have returned about 6% more per year than risk-free assets, which is known as the equity premium puzzle. █ Practical Implications for Retail Traders Retail traders can derive several practical applications from these findings to improve their trading strategies: Risk Management: Understanding that loss aversion may lead to holding losing stocks longer, traders should implement strict stop-loss policies to mitigate this bias. Profit-Taking Strategies: Recognizing the reversed disposition effect, traders should establish clear profit-taking rules to avoid prematurely selling winning stocks. Market Volatility Awareness: Being aware that market volatility can exacerbate loss aversion effects, traders should seek higher returns to compensate for perceived risks. █ Applying Knowledge from the Study Retail traders can apply the knowledge from this study in several effective ways: Implementing Stop-Loss Orders: Setting automatic stop-loss orders helps circumvent the emotional impact of loss aversion, ensuring losses are capped at predetermined levels. Regular Review of Holdings: Periodic reassessment of stock holdings can help overcome the inertia caused by loss aversion, enabling more rational decision-making. Diversification: Diversifying the portfolio can mitigate the impact of loss aversion on individual stock performance, reducing overall portfolio risk. Education on Cognitive Biases: Educating themselves about cognitive biases like loss aversion and the disposition effect can help traders recognize and counteract these biases in their trading behavior. █ Reference Li, Y., & Yang, L. (2013). Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 107(3), 715-739. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.11.002 ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by Zeiierman
Bearish drop?DAX40 is rising towards a resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 18,275.79 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 18,386.59 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 17,931.01 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GShort
by VantageMarkets
Could this be a reversal ? Us30: Us30 seemed to have a good rally and took highs from its previous week and has seemed to stall there. As the week has close bullish I will be looking to this new week to continue bullish or atleast take the highs off the week prior to it. Ger40: Germany has a weaker rally but broke higher timeframe structures after its previous weeks lows were taken. I will like to see if this can hold as a strong break of structure or just a take of liquidity (ressitance). The week also close bullish and I will expect the new week to take prior weeks highs.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by S0202Trades
#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax cfd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls see it as a small pullback and a sell vacuum on Friday to the big round support 18000. They want to create the same reversal as they did on 2024-04-19 with a 2% up day. The pullback in late March and April was 13 days long while we are in a 21 day long pullback. Bulls also argue that this is the first touch of the weekly 20ema since 2023-11 when we sliced through and have not touched it once since. Trends tend to test the extreme after the trend line is broken. I have absolutely no confidence in the bears to crash from here on, without at least a retest of the bull trend line at around 18300. If bears manage to close the gap to 17100, I am obviously wrong. comment: Sell vacuum theory was spot on. Bears printed 2 big good looking bars right to huge support and got no follow through. Bulls used it to trade back at least to the daily ema and 2/3 of the move. Huge price level around 18400/18450 with the ema. Bulls want above to test upper expanding triangle around 18600 and bears want a bigger second leg down to 17600. Both completely valid arguments and I will wait for a clear breakout before following. current market cycle: trading range - go look at the monthly chart. It’s a clear 4 month trading range. —unchanged key levels: small range 17600 / 18500 bull case: Bulls already had 2 pushes up in this pullback and they want a third one to around 18600. Their first target is a 1h close above the daily ema 18430. Invalidation is below 18260. bear case: I do think bears last chance here at the daily ema or they risk another bull leg to 18600. I think the odds are 50/50 for either side on Monday/Tuesday. Bears see this as a higher pullback in the new steeper bear trend that started 2023-06-13 with the two big bear bars. If they fail, market will spend more time in the range 18000-18600. Invalidation is a 1h close above 18460. outlook last week: “short term: Neutral. Please read on so you know why and how I will trade it. So bears are in control. Below all ema and really big red bars and all red bars for 5 weeks. I’m still not shorting right at 18000. That’s insane. Can we go lower on momentum to 17600? Yes. Will I short it? Bet. R:R here is on the bull side if they build buying pressure and get follow through. Until all of that I am neutral.” → Last Sunday we traded 18016 and now we are at 18367. High of the week was 18448 so that outlook was as good as it gets. Hope you made some. short term: Neutral again. Need to see a clear winner here at the daily 20ema for the next direction. medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. current swing trade: None but will look for weakness on Monday/Tuesday for another big leg down. Sp500 and Nasdaq have to also be weak for that. Chart update: No bigger updates on my chart. Green two legged correction (ABC) was spot on and is still valid.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Brilliant Basics - Part 5: Pre-Trade ChecklistWelcome to the fifth and final instalment of our Brilliant Basics series. Here, we provide you with a powerful Pre-Trade Checklist that can be applied to any trading strategy on any timeframe. Pre-Trade Checklist: A Platform For Success Our Pre-Trade Checklist involves asking yourself five simple yet crucial questions before committing your hard-earned money to the market. These questions cover the fundamentals of good trading, emphasising psychological discipline, risk management, and trade management. 1. Does your trade REALLY match your entry criteria? • This may sound obvious, but before entering your trade, it is essential that you triple check if the trade matches your entry criteria. The emotional rollercoaster of trading often starts at the inception of a trade idea. It’s easy to become attached to a trade that doesn’t actually meet your trading plan. Example: Imagine you’re a momentum trader who has been patiently waiting for a stock to break out from a wedge pattern for weeks. Your trade plan clearly states that you must wait for a close above the breakout zone on the daily chart before entering. On the day the breakout finally occurs, your excitement takes over, and you decide to break your entry criteria "just this once" because the breakout was moving so fast. Regardless of the outcome, the "just this once" mentality will prevent you from achieving consistency in your trading. Key Takeaway: Good trading hinges on consistently applying your edge across a large dataset. Therefore, ensure your trade strictly aligns with your predefined entry criteria. 2. Have you checked the economic calendar? • Always check the economic calendar before entering a trade. Scheduled news events like earnings announcements or central bank policy statements can trigger significant volatility. While some strategies may thrive on volatility, effective risk management requires awareness of potential market-moving events. Example: Suppose you’re trading EUR/USD. Without checking the economic calendar, you might miss an upcoming ECB meeting that could drastically impact the pair’s movement, causing unexpected volatility and potential losses. Key Takeaway: Serious traders prioritise risk management and should never overlook scheduled economic events that could impact their trades. 3. Where will you exit if you’re wrong? • Pre-trade enthusiasm often leads to us underweighting the potential to be wrong. If you know exactly where you are getting out of the market if the trade goes wrong, you are already miles ahead of most retail traders. There are two elements to this question: A. Stop Placement: This is an essential hard line in the sand and a stop should be placed that allows for market noise and confirms that your initial trade thesis is wrong. B. Pattern Failure: The second, more subjective element, is failure of pattern or catalyst behind the trade prior to the market hitting the stop. Example: Imagine you’re a swing trader buying a breakout from a descending channel. You place your stop loss below the nearest swing low. The market breaks higher but then retreats back below the descending channel. The breakout pattern, which was the catalyst behind the trade, has failed, but you’re still in the trade. Do you wait and hope for the trade to turn around before your stop is triggered, or do you take a proactive approach and close the trade on pattern failure? Key Takeaway: Exiting on pattern failure prior to your stop can help to reduce the size of your average loser and therefore boost your trading edge. 4. Have you adjusted your position size? • Consistency in position sizing is key to trading success. Adjust your position size according to your risk management strategy—whether fixed monetary amounts per trade or a percentage of your total account size. Example: Imagine you are a swing trader who risks £100 per trade and places a stop loss below a key swing low. Trade A has a stop loss of 100 points, and Trade B has a stop loss of 50 points. To ensure each trade has consistent monetary risk of £100, you risk £1 per point on Trade A and £2 per point on Trade B. Key Takeaway: Equal weighting of trades ensures that your edge is applied consistently over time, regardless of market conditions or trade outcomes. 5. Where will you exit if you’re right? • Planning your exit strategy before entering a trade is crucial for consistent trading performance. Avoid impulsive decisions influenced by profit-induced dopamine rushes. Example: You’ve entered a short position on Tesla (TSLA) after identifying a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. You plan to take profits at the next major support level. By setting this target in advance, you avoid the temptation to exit prematurely as the stock begins to fall. Key Takeaway: Determine your profit-taking strategy—whether exiting at key support/resistance levels, taking partial profits, or trailing stops to capture potential further gains. Summary: Before entering a trade ask yourself the following five questions: 1. Does your trade REALLY match your entry criteria? 2. Have you checked the economic calendar? 3. Where will you exit if you’re wrong? 4. Have you adjusted your position size? 5. Where will you exit if you’re right? These simple questions, if answered honestly and consistently have the potential to make a real positive impact on your trading regardless of you style or experience. Thank you for following our Brilliant Basics series. We hope these insights have provided you with the tools and confidence to improve your trading strategy. Remember, disciplined trading is the key to long-term success. Happy trading! Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 80.84% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Education
by Capitalcom
GER30 remains under pressure after sharp sell-off last weekEuropean stocks took a beating last week following the announcement of a snap election by French President Macron. The momentum remains subdued but prices are at a key support level. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) : CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) : Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:GER30Short
by FXCM
1
DAX ANALYSIS 19/06/2024DAX chart you provided, let's break down the key components visible in the chart: Volume: The volume is indicated at the bottom of the chart. The volume bars show trading activity, with higher bars representing higher trading volumes. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): There are two VWAP lines on the chart: one for the week and one overall. The weekly VWAP is shown at 18,081.10 and the overall VWAP at 18,158.83. VWAP is used to assess the average price a security has traded at based on both volume and price. Liquidity Heatmap: The green and red zones on the chart represent liquidity zones. Red zones indicate areas of higher selling interest (resistance), while green zones indicate areas of higher buying interest (support). Resistance and Support Levels: The chart has marked key resistance and support levels with blue and red lines. Resistance is around 18,500 and support is around 17,800. Price Action: The current price is 18,123.58, indicating a recent downward trend followed by a consolidation phase near the support level. Bollinger Bands: The orange lines around the price represent Bollinger Bands, which measure market volatility and are used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. The bands are relatively tight, indicating reduced volatility. Analysis and Commentary Bearish Trend with Potential Reversal: The DAX has experienced a recent bearish trend, as evidenced by the declining price action. The price is currently consolidating near a key support level around 18,000. Resistance Levels: The price is facing resistance around 18,500. If the price breaks above this level, it could signal a potential reversal or recovery from the recent downtrend. Volume Insights: The volume is crucial in confirming price movements. The recent consolidation phase near the support level has been accompanied by relatively lower volume, indicating reduced selling pressure. Support Levels: The key support levels are around 18,000 and 17,800. These levels could provide strong buying opportunities if the price holds above them. Bollinger Bands: The tight Bollinger Bands indicate reduced volatility. A significant price movement (breakout or breakdown) could be expected once the bands start to widen. Recommendations For Long Positions: Consider entering long positions if the price breaks above the resistance level at 18,500 with increased volume. This could indicate a potential reversal and a bullish trend. Setting stop-loss orders just below the current support levels (around 17,800) can help manage risk. For Short Positions: Short positions could be considered if the price fails to break above the resistance level and shows signs of further decline. Tight stops should be placed just above the resistance levels. For New Positions: Monitoring the price action near the current consolidation phase is crucial. Entering positions based on the breakout direction (either above 18,500 for longs or below 18,000 for shorts) with confirming volume can be a strategic approach.
XETR:DAX
by crktrader