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ANALYSIS DAX 05/07/2024DAX index with various technical indicators. Here’s a detailed analysis and a strategy for trading based on the information presented: Key Components of the Chart VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Weekly VWAP: The values shown are 18,292.03 (low), 18,608.91 (average), and 17,975.16 (high). VWAP is a trading benchmark that gives the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. Volume Profile: The gray bars on the left indicate the volume traded at different price levels. Higher volume at specific price levels can indicate strong support or resistance zones. Bollinger Bands: These are the blue and green bands around the price action. Bollinger Bands consist of a middle band (simple moving average) and two outer bands (standard deviations away from the middle band). The bands expand and contract based on market volatility. Candlestick Patterns: The chart shows the price movement through candlesticks, which indicate the opening, closing, high, and low prices for each time period. Horizontal Lines: The orange line around the 18,450 level and the light blue lines around 17,900 and 18,600 levels indicate important support and resistance levels. Technical Analysis Trend Analysis: The DAX index is in an uptrend, as evidenced by the series of higher highs and higher lows. The price is trading above the weekly VWAP, indicating bullish momentum. Support and Resistance: Immediate resistance is around the 18,453.24 level (current price). Significant support levels are at 18,000 and 17,800. Bollinger Bands: The price is currently near the upper Bollinger Band, which could indicate overbought conditions. This suggests a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. Volume Profile: High volume nodes around the 18,000 to 18,500 range suggest strong buying interest and potential support if the price pulls back. Market Sentiment: The consistent uptrend and position above the VWAP suggest bullish market sentiment. However, traders should watch for signs of reversal or consolidation near resistance levels. Strategy for Buying and Selling DAX Entry (Buy) Strategy Support Levels: Buy on Pullbacks to Support: Look for buying opportunities when the price pulls back to the support levels at 18,000 or 17,800. Confirm the support with a bounce or bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing). VWAP: Buy Above VWAP: Consider buying when the price is trading above the weekly VWAP (18,608.91) as it indicates bullish momentum. Volume Confirmation: High Volume on Pullbacks: Ensure there is significant volume when the price approaches support levels, indicating strong buying interest. Bollinger Bands: Buy Near Lower Bollinger Band: If the price touches or approaches the lower Bollinger Band, it can indicate the price is oversold and might reverse. Exit (Sell) Strategy Resistance Levels: Sell at Resistance: Look to take profits near the resistance level at 18,453.24. If the price struggles to break this level, it may reverse. VWAP: Sell Below VWAP: If the price drops below the weekly VWAP, it can indicate a shift to bearish momentum. Consider selling if this happens. Volume Confirmation: High Volume on Rallies: Ensure there is significant volume when the price approaches resistance levels, indicating strong selling interest. Bollinger Bands: Sell Near Upper Bollinger Band: If the price touches or approaches the upper Bollinger Band, it can indicate the price is overbought and might reverse. Risk Management Stop-Loss Placement: Below Support for Longs: Place stop-loss orders slightly below the identified support levels (e.g., below 17,800 if buying at 18,000) to limit potential losses. Above Resistance for Shorts: If shorting, place stop-loss orders slightly above the identified resistance levels. Position Sizing: Use Appropriate Position Size: Calculate your position size based on your risk tolerance and the distance to your stop-loss. Ensure you're not risking more than a small percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your trading capital on a single trade. Trailing Stop: Protect Profits with Trailing Stop: Use a trailing stop to lock in profits as the price moves in your favor. This allows you to capture more gains if the trend continues while protecting against sudden reversals. Example Trade Plan Entry: Buy at 18,000 with confirmation of support. Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 17,700. Take Profit: Set initial take profit at 18,453.24. Trailing Stop: Implement a trailing stop of 100 points to capture additional gains if the price continues to rise. This strategy leverages support and resistance levels, VWAP, and Bollinger Bands to identify optimal buy and sell points while incorporating sound risk management practices. Always adjust your strategy based on real-time market conditions and additional technical or fundamental analysis.
XETR:DAX
by crktrader
2024-07-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Uneventful trading was expect, since US holidays mostly go sideways in a tight trading range. Market had a good spike at the open which had to be faded and that was the trade of the day. Other than that, market is oscillating around 18600, which is 25 points above the open of the week/month. It’s do or die for both sides here. If bulls can break above 18630, 18900 comes in play. If bears win it, we could have a nasty reversal and will be on our way to 18000 again. I still think the bears trend line could be in play, if bears trade below it early tomorrow. If not, successful breakout above and odds will favor the bulls. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. —unchanged Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Update: Since text above is still valid, I did not change it. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. —unchanged medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Just don’t trade on these days unless you are 9/10 days in tight trading ranges profitable. If you enjoy my writings, please leave a boost or follow. Thank you and I wish your trading to be profitable.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
2024-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Globex was the low of the day and bulls just bought relentlessly since the EU open. 3 doji bear bars on the 1h chart today will make follow through likely but we are again at the bear trend line in this big triangle and that line held 4 times now. Betting on a breakout is a losing strategy. Wait for it to happen and follow the market. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 18200 - 18600 bull case: Bulls want to break above 18600 and out of the triangle. If they manage that, bears will likely give up and market is free to trade 18800 or 19000 again. Invalidation is below 18500. bear case: Bears need to prevent prices above 18630 and break outside of this tight bull wedge. Dax is in a trading range for 6 months and betting on a continuation of it, is far more profitable in the long run than betting on breakouts. R:R here is on the bears side but I would not think about shorts above 18500. So bears see an expanding triangle, a bigger triangle and a small bull trend that already had 3 pushes up. If they can’t turn it here, we will probably melt to 19000 like nasdaq did today. Since we are currently seeing a funny rotation between the markets, absolutely possible that liquidity will be shoved into Dax tomorrow for a breakout. Invalidation is above 18630. short term: Can’t be bearish after 2 strong bull days but I sure won’t be bullish at multiple resistances. I wait for strong buying/selling and follow the market. Can absolutely see this breaking to either side tomorrow. What I don’t expect is market to stall above 18500. Either down or up. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Long anywhere. Watch higher time frames because they left no doubt today. I made that mistake and could not get myself into longs. Bad trading on my end.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
Bullish rise?DE40 has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could potentially rise to the 1sr resistance. Pivot: 18,044.34 1st Support: 17,951.32 1st Resistance: 18,271.05 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:DE40Long
by ICmarkets
1
2024-07-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment Indexes - SP500 and Nasdaq had bull trends from the open and almost went up in one straight line on higher time frames. Both produced lower highs but given the strength of today, we can expect some follow through tomorrow. If bears somehow manage to reverse here and keep the lower highs, there is no reason why we can’t reverse to the lows of the week again. Market is all still inside their trading ranges and most breakout attempts fail. Commodities - Gold is again not worthy to be written about. Oil touched the bear trend line today on relentless buying but market gave back around 150 points afterwards. All of my bullish targets are met here and market could very well begin forming a top here before trading lower again. Bitcoin turned exactly where it had to and where my painting showed it would. There is a tiny bull trend line around 61500 and if that is broken, we will see 58000 or lower again. For the slight possibility that bulls turn this around again and stay inside the bull channel, they would have to break the bear trend line above 63000, which would then open up the road to 65000 again but I think this is very low probability. dax comment: 18300 is the most important price for dax for many days now. Today we sold off but market grinded higher to the 50% pb and that is around 18300. We have a decent bear channel which could hold and a third leg down would bring us to 18000 again. It’s still a trading range and a bigger third leg is lower probability. Markets usually have two legs inside ranges, so we could turn up from here to 18500 again. Neutral is the name of the game. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18000 - 18600 bull case: Bulls need to break outside of the bear expanding triangle and their first target above is today’s open pricea t 18419. If they could do that, they will probably get to 18500 again. For now I think bulls are not good and they don’t have many arguments on their side. Invalidation is below 18180. bear case: Strong selling by the bears since EU open and market could not trade above the 1h ema the whole day. They want follow through tomorrow and keep the bear expanding triangle alive. Their targets below are 18100 which is where the bigger triangle bull trend line is. I don’t see them breaking it but if they do, obvious target below is 18000. Invalidation is above 18400. short term: Neutral between 18300 - 18370. Bearish below and bullish above (if bulls can break outside of the exp triangle). medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Short since Globex or from the EU open. Low of last week was 18221 so a good place to look to take profits or exit shorts. Market turned at 18190.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
Germany's DAX Threatening Big Break Below Trend SupportGermany's DAX index has had a solid 2024 so far, but the shine may be coming off the bullish technicals as we head into the second half of the year. After hitting a record high near 19K in May, the index has seen its gains stall out. Prices retreated to bullish trend line support in mid-June, and with bulls failing to drive a convincing bounce off that level, the DAX is now at risk of a bearish breakdown below that level of dynamic support. A breakdown could target the March/April closing lows in the 17.7K zone next.
FOREXCOM:GER40
by FOREXcom
GER30 H4 | Potential bullish reversalGER30 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 18,050.68 which is a pullback support. Stop loss is at 17,900.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 18,370.11 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. dax comment: Funny thing for me is the fact that ath to June high is about 200 points, June to July high now is about 200 and low of the week was 200 points below that. Markets eh. 4h chart tells it the best I think. Market touched the big bear trend line from ath and was rejected heavily. Bulls have going for them that the higher lows getting higher and the trend lines steeper. Means we are forming multiple triangles, which confirms the obvious trading range. Breakout this week. Buckle. Up. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18400 - 18632 bull case: Bulls making higher lows but every high is sold big time. Only questions imo is, when will they give up? By not with every 1h bar it get’s more obvious that this bull trend is on it’s last legs and if you bought longer term above 18000, you are not happy with the bear trend line. Higher high above 18600 was unexpected somewhat but turned where it had to. Bulls need a strong daily close above 18600 to make bears nervous. I expect another try at 18600 tomorrow or Wednesday. Invalidation is below 18400. bear case: Bears trapped bulls buying above 18500 but the sell off afterwards was not deep enough to make a good bear case out of this. Bears need start making lower lows and closing the bull gap to 18400 with a bear bar closing on its low. Invalidation is above 18632 or a 1h close above the bear trend line. short term: Neutral but if bulls manage to get a 1h close above the bear trend line, it could go much higher much faster. medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Best trade was shorting against the bear trend line 18600.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
by priceactiontds
DAX to find support market price?DE30EUR - 24h expiry Our bespoke resistance of 18366 has been clearly broken. Previous resistance at 18325 now becomes support. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. The primary trend remains bullish. Price action continues to trade around significant highs. We look to Buy at 18325 (stop at 18215) Our profit targets will be 18565 and 18635 Resistance: 18446 / 18500 / 18600 Support: 18325 / 18200 / 18100 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. *KEY Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively. Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Analysis Germany 40 remains inside a tight sideways consolidation of its broader bullish trend, with the price increasing to 18,306, now below the VWAP of 18,240. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 17,920 and 18,571, respectively. The RSI has increased to 49, indicating a slight moderation in upside momentum compared to the previous report. UK 100 remains in the consolidation phase of a bullish trend, with the price increasing towards the June lows, and still below the VWAP of 8,195.2. Support has adjusted to 8,126, while resistance has decreased to 8,275. The RSI has decreased to 46, reflecting a moderation in momentum compared to the previous report. Wall Street has made significant upside progress in the past 3 months - moving into a bullish consolidation phase, with the price recently increasing to 39,168, now above the VWAP of 38,925. Support and resistance levels have adjusted to 38,422 and 39,428, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 55, signaling a slight decrease in bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Brent Crude has transitioned into a bullish trend and continues in an impulsive phase, with the price increasing to 85.43, now above the VWAP of 83.53. Support has adjusted higher to 80.24, while resistance has increased to 86.82. The RSI remains at 60, indicating a continuation of strong bullish momentum compared to the previous report. Gold remains in a bullish trend trading sideways in a neutral consolidation since topping in mid-April, with the price recently increasing to 2,326, now around the previous VWAP of 2,325. Support has adjusted higher to 2,294, while resistance has decreased to 2,348. The RSI remains at 49, indicating a continuation of moderate momentum compared to the previous report. EUR/USD remains broadly trendless with the price more recently increasing to 1.0755, now slightly above the VWAP of 1.0729 - and indicating a possible new phase of weakness. Support has adjusted higher to 1.0664, while resistance has decreased to 1.0793. The RSI has increased to 51, indicating a reduction in bearish pressure compared to the previous report. GBP/USD remains in a neutral trend in a consolidation phase, with the price slightly increasing to 1.2669, now around the VWAP of 1.2690. Support has adjusted lower to 1.2600, and resistance has decreased to 1.2781. The RSI has increased to 47, indicating a moderation of bearish sentiment compared to the previous report. USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend - having overcome the late April peak - and has just reentered an impulsive phase, with the price increasing slightly to 161.01, now above the previous VWAP of 158.59. Support has adjusted higher to 155.47, while resistance has increased to 161.72. The RSI has increased to 77, reflecting a strong increase in bullish momentum compared to the previous report.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex