Momentum Regimes: Major IndicesMomentum Regimes: Major Indices
The charts show the current momentum regimes for 4 of the major global indices.
These are subject to change.
DAX trade ideas
Dax 40 So we wait for pdl and pdh sweep then we hop to 4 hour time frame them we find our order block
Selling German 30(Ger40)Set up wasn't respected, although it stop out on the second entry( the scaling in trade).
DAX to find buyers at market price?GER40 - 24h expiry
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
The primary trend remains bullish.
50 1day EMA is at 17765.
A Doji style candle has been posted from the base.
The corrective cycle lower looks to have stalled.
We look to Buy at 17830 (stop at 17730)
Our profit targets will be 18080 and 18160
Resistance: 17910 / 18000 / 18100
Support: 17800 / 17713 / 17600
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1:1 Short DAX1. Daily Break of Structure (BOS)
2. 50 & 100 EMA Cross down on H4 and PA retest of EMAs
3. Retest of BOS
4. Trendline Break and Retest at H4 EMA Crossover
German 30( ger 40) sellWith the previous trade taken taken yesterday got a chance to make a scale in, and this further goes in line with the trading plan of scaling in only when the previous trade is in profit.
Sell, ger40(German 30)A trade according to a proven and tested strategy, I like to call it triangle set up commonly known as the break out structure. Took a sell after a retest at a resistance area, and made a double top for further confirmation.
DAX short-term traders are bullishThe DAX hourly chart is showing signs of support. However, the daily chart is still under pressure.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Sell on German 30Set up wasn't respected. As planned, a retest was made in the significant level, which was part of my trading plan however, it didn't go into play.
GER40 short ideaAt rising channel toppish, look like pushing up momentum is greatly reduced looking at the gradients of each rise. RSI is diverging. at BB top, has shown a bearish bar. high risk to reward ratio.
A sell on German 30Using my strategy, a triangle set up, commonly known as the breakout structure. I enter my trade at a retest of a sensitive area (a area with multiple touches) and I place my Tp at the base of the triangle therefore making me a swing trader as some trades take a day or more. And this one isn't any different
2024-04-16 - a daily price action after hour update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Today nothing moved the markets and I was humble enough to book some early profits and scalps before US open. I left it at that and am very happy with that decision. Days like this are the death for inexperienced traders, so if you lost money today, train on a paper account when market is this choppy. Leave your ego at the door if you think paper trading is above you.
Base thesis still stands, markets would have traded lower by now if bears could have done so. Market is looking for a reason to bounce and retest the highs or print a lower high. Obviously invalid if we see meaningful lower prices with follow through.
dax
bull case: Atrocious price action but bulls kept it above 18000, which was the bare minimum they had to do today. Avg daily range is somewhat above 180 over the last days and today was around 150 where we closed 70 points below the open. Tight trading range will a lot of fades. Did not help anyone to establish their bias. Bulls want to retest the open of the week 18200 and see if they can trade higher again. Daily 20ema is 18250 so this will be a magnet.
bear case: I have zero interest of being a bear at 18000 for now. Bears showed unbelievable strength on their first sign of life since late 2023-12 and this tight channel down is too tight for my comfort. Chances that we break below are very slim. That being said, bear channel is alive and well and the bull trend line from 2023-10 is broken, had it’s retest and is now gone for good. If you are still holding your longs because you have a “feeling” market will turn, I probably can’t help you. I won’t turn full bear until we see a better lower high or retest of the ath before we can form a proper broader channel downwards.
short term: Sideways to up - 10 Days where rips were sold and new lows were bought. Stick to what has worked until it clearly does not anymore.
medium-long term: After 10 consecutive green weeks, we finally printed two red ones. Bears are drooling. My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
trade of the day: If you are not comfortable with tight trading range price action, train with a demo account until you are. Think of your training as athletes do.
GER 40 - Premarket Analysis Apr 16, 2024GER 40 - Premarket Analysis Apr 16, 2024
Based on Trend Analysis, and chart recognition from Simple Trading Book and Volume Profile
Fourth wave double zigzag? The possibility of a bigger correctioEsteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours,
Mr. Nobody
fallingyesterday's NYSE dragged Ger40 but we can monitor the movement of GER40 and Tesla also impacted the downfall of the stock let's monitor our Technical movement and wait for a straight rebound
Downward pressures are buildingThe DAX (DE40) has made a bearish breakout through the pivot. Could the downward momentum potentially carry it lower towards the 1st support?
Pivot: 17,847.70
1st Support: 17,658.40
1st Resistance: 18,152.00
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Weekly Technical Analysis 15/04/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Germany 40 is exhibiting a corrective phase within an overall bullish trend, with the price now standing at 17,966, which is slightly below the VWAP of 18,223. The index has found new support at 17,807 and is encountering resistance at 18,638. The RSI is at 45, indicating a cooling off of the previous bullish momentum.
UK 100 is still bullish but has entered a corrective phase. The price has seen a slight decline to 7,967, positioning it just above the VWAP of 7,935. The support level is now 7,890, while resistance lies at 7,980. With an RSI of 64, there’s a slight dip in the bullish sentiment from before.
Wall Street has taken a bearish turn and is in an impulsive phase. The price has dropped to 38,112, falling below the VWAP of 39,005. Support and resistance levels have been adjusted to 37,854 and 40,158, respectively. The RSI has decreased to 35, signalling a shift to bearish momentum.
Brent Crude remains in a bullish and impulsive phase, with the price now at 89.47, above the VWAP of 88.18. Support has been established at 84.14, with resistance not far off at 92.21. An RSI of 61 indicates a marginal decrease in bullish momentum.
Gold has sustained its bullish trend and is in an impulsive phase, with a price hike to 2,359, well over the VWAP of 2,275. The support level has been marked down to 2,130, and resistance has been found at 2,420. The RSI has risen to 70, suggesting a stronger bullish sentiment and an overbought condition.
EUR/USD remains bearish but has shifted into an impulsive phase, with the price tumbling to 1.0658, below the VWAP of 1.0785. The support has been noted at 1.0648, with resistance at 1.0922. An RSI of 32 signifies a reduction in bearish sentiment.
GBP/USD stays bearish and impulsive, with the price at 1.2466, below the VWAP of 1.2595. The support has been updated to 1.2460, with resistance at 1.2731. The RSI at 34 indicates a decrease in bearish momentum.
USD/JPY continues in a bullish trend and remains impulsive, with the price slightly up at 153.84, above the VWAP of 151.86. The support level is 150.20, with resistance observed at 153.52. The RSI at 76 shows a modest decline in bullish momentum.
DAX 40 : READY FOR NEW HIGHS?- The market has been trading inside a bearish channel since the beginning of April ; the short-term trend is then bearish.
- This bearish short-term trend took place after short-sellers took control of the market following a new record high above 18,600pts.
Indeed, the prospect of a "higher for longer" narrative regarding monetary policies made the current high stock valuations difficult to defend for bull traders, which led to a flag pattern correction.
However, the market recently registered a sharp bounce back over 17,860pts, leading prices to the upper bound of the bearish flag.
Moving averages are reversing while the DMI indicator displays a rising bullish pressure within a directional movement.
- The bearish flag pattern remains valid so far. However, the recent bullish price action confirmed by technical indicators may mean the correction could be over soon.
If the market manages to clear the 18,145pts level, not only the market could go back to its historical high around 18,600pts, but even beyond towards new highs.
This scenario could be confirmed not later than this week as traders patiently wait for more corporate results to see how companies dealt with tighter monetary environment in Q1.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
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Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
DAX Opens Positively to Start the WeekThe DAX has put the geopolitical risk premium behind it to start the week, despite the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. IF the hourly stochastic can reach its upper quartile and maintain, a positive swing is likely to result.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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DAX Cash Index (DECEUR) Quick Video IdeaEASYMARKETS:DECEUR
DAX
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GER30We looking for buying opportunities as we are respecting the support zone with a bullish flag and double bottom formation
DAX H4 | Bearish momentum to extendThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 18,182.57 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 18,460.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 17,791.00 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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#202416 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Last week was expected until Wednesday, as markets mostly moved sideways. Two weeks ago I concluded the most recent bull trends had their trend lines broken and the daily 20emas also. Wednesday’s CPI print was a bit above forecast but reminded markets that maybe not all is well buying into the highs around the all time highs, while corporate profits stagnate or decline. Even Friday’s amazing bank earnings could not save the market from another bad Event sell off. Situation in the middle east seems to be escalating and which Fund wants to be max bullish when this happens? From a price action perspective, this is still just a pull back in bullish markets but since the bull trend was so overdone, climactic and way beyond historical averages, the pull back could be much more deeper than most bulls are comfortable with and that might be one of the reasons we are seeing more sell the rip (str) price action, than buy the dip (btd or BTFD). The volume on red days is also much higher than on advancing ones and the last time we reached those vol levels were during the deep pull back 2023-07 to 2023-10.
current market drivers
middle east: Big event which could lead to significant downside in the short term. If it isn’t as bad as estimated, could lead to big rebound. One of those things you can’t predict and can only play if your time frames are short and you are quick to exit positions.
earnings: Bank earnings were nothing short of amazing. Market rallied the last months like we are economically expanding and profits are rising like never before in history. Big big tail risk but as long as earnings don’t turn bad, markets will probably not care too much about them. Remember, your job as a trader is not to predict but to follow the market reaction. I thought earnings would come in softer and market would therefore sell off but they came in strong and market sold off nonetheless so I don’t care why my market thesis is right, I just put myself in a place to anticipate market movements and when they happen, I ride the wave in either direction.
second wave of inflation: Commodities are on a big rip and if Oil continues, after 90$, 100$ is next logical target. Hard to imagine prices not rising again on those levels.
dax cfd
Quote from last week:
bear case: My quote from last week tried to encourage you to wait for selling pressure before considering closing longer term longs or enganging in shorts. Market did just that with the beginning of April and we saw a 500 point drop in a two legged correction. Bears need to keep the selling pressure high and if they are strong, keep the bear small bear gaps on the 1h tf open. We are right above the daily 20ema and the lower bull channel line. If bears can get a close below 18250, that could trigger many long stops and the odds of more sideways to down rise significantly. Their next targets are 18250 and 18000 afterwards.
current market cycle: Bull trend - Market is still inside the bull channel and until clearly broken and a lower high below, it stays that way. Yet I do think there is a decent chance the high is in and the retest will be a lower high and the market is currently evolving into trading range before the bigger bear trend begins.
key levels: Strong support 18000 (expected) - 18810 (I can’t see market making another ath, if I had to guess, 18600 will be max if bulls manage to bounce)
bull case: 4 Pushes down on now and only 2 green bars on the daily chart. It’s a very tight bear channel down to 18000 on the daily chart and tight channels are never sustainable. Market is at the bull trend line from 2023-10 and unless the tail risks, especially the middle east situation, is bigger than expected, market will probably bounce. Bulls just have to buy strongly at they big round number here to prevent a flush down to 17600 or even 17000.
bear case: Bears showed strength this week and bulls continued to take profits. Every bounce was sold and this pull back is now as deep as the one we got from mid 2023-12 to early 2024-01, which is around -4%, which is, given the +28% rise, almost nothing. Now we are at the first very important level to determine the strength and speed of this market cycle. If we bounce here and markets shakes off all risks again, we could stay inside a trading range at the highs, or we fall through 18000 and get the first leg of a new bear trend. It is very unusual for markets to go from one trend to another but it can happen. But betting on it, is usually a losing strategy. Bears did an amazing job and closing 2 bull gaps in 2 weeks and their next target is to keep a pull back very shallow to trap many late bulls. The perfect scenario for bears could be as drawn but I do think this is low probability. It’s more likely that we will see a bounce here. A retest of the extreme is almost always expected.
outlook last week: “Sideways to up - Since markets mostly expect a retest of the extremes, the odds favor sideways and a retest. Range is probably 18250 - 18800 for now. If earnings on Tuesday are bad, this could go much lower much faster.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 18433 and now we are at 18082. Again, not the worst outlook because I clearly gave the lower levels if bears could continue to sell off. I’m a little surprised of how fast we got here now, given that 2023-12 to 2023-01 took 21 (TWENTY ONE) trading days to do the same we did in 8.
short term: Tricky one this week but bear with me. It’s an easy if statement. IF tail risks (mainly middle east) continues to get worse, we could see a very deep sell off. Like -4 to -5% deep to 17000. IF market shakes it off and we see strong buying pressure at this key level, we can see a big bounce, targets are 18400, 18600 and retest of ath 18800.
medium-long term: Second bearish week in a row, which has not happened since 2023-10.
I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. —changed -30 to -20% because price is moving higher while time is getting shorter for the target. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged part
Chart update: My preferred path is the green one (higher probability), despite my bearish outlook. If we continue to drop below 18000, this was most likely a W1 of a new bear trend.
