NVDA at a Decision Point – Breakout or Breakdown?🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Market Structure & SMC:
NVDA has consistently respected a downward sloping parallel channel. We see multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character) and a recent Break of Structure (BOS), confirming a bearish trend continuation. Price failed to reclaim the mid-supply zone and is hugging the bottom channel support.
* Supply/Resistance Zones:
* Immediate Resistance: $110.69 (top of current rejection zone)
* Mid Resistance: $114.47
* Strong Resistance: $122.25 (major supply zone)
* Support Levels:
* Immediate Support: $108.64
* Next Critical Support: $104.77 (marked as highest negative GEX / Put Wall support)
* Indicators:
* MACD: Momentum remains bearish with flat histogram bars. No bullish crossover yet.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold but not curling up yet – no strong reversal signal here.
* Volume: Slight uptick on recent sell-off, but not panic volume.
📊 Options Flow / GEX Sentiment (Right Chart)
* GEX Analysis:
* Negative GEX Cluster between $109–105, showing Put Dominance.
* HVL Zone (High Volume Liquidity) near $112, suggesting a magnet zone if bulls recover.
* Strong Call Wall at $118 and $122 — tough resistance ahead.
* Max Put Support Zone at $104.77 – could act as a bounce point or trap.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 24.5 – relatively low implied volatility rank.
* IVx avg: 60.1 – moderate implied volatility.
* CALLS only 5.4% – heavily skewed bearish sentiment.
* Red GEX Bars – dominant Put positions hint at hedge-heavy downside pressure.
🧠 Trade Setups
Scalp/Short-Term Setup
* Bearish Bias unless NVDA reclaims $110.69 with volume.
* 📉 Short Entry: Below $108.50
🎯 Target: $105.00 → $104.77
❌ Stop: $111.00
Reversal Play (Speculative)
* Watch for bullish divergence or sharp reclaim of $112.
* 📈 Long Entry: Above $112 (HVL reclaim)
🎯 Target: $114.50 → $118
❌ Stop: $108
🧨 Options Strategy Idea
Bearish Vertical Spread (Short-Term)
* Buy 110 Put / Sell 105 Put
* Expiration: 1-2 weeks
* Net debit: lower cost with defined risk
* Thesis: NVDA fades toward $105 support
Long Call Idea (Only if $112 flips with strength):
* Buy 115 Call – 2 weeks out
* Needs confirmation of reversal or gamma squeeze
🧭 Bias Summary
* ✅ Directional Bias: Bearish until $112 is reclaimed
* 📉 Price is within a bear channel, respecting structure
* 🔴 Options sentiment confirms downside pressure
* 🛑 Do not long blindly at support – wait for signs of strength
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
