NVDA: Buy ideaBuy idea on NVDA as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator by buyers.
NVD trade ideas
NVDA - Wave 4 Complete? Let's Take A Look!Hey nerds!
Alright, so here's the deal. In one of my previous updates, I discussed the 161.8% extension target which is the high probability target for a wave 3 and we hit it basically perfectly. Now that we've hit that target, mixed with channel resistance, I would have expected price action to pull back, which it did.
The pullback target for wave 4 (at the 38.2% internal retracement) was about $118 and after earnings, NVDA went below that. Not trading advice, but I was a buyer down there in after hours. Price action yesterday was bullish at the open with a big gap up but was met with heavy selling. There were lots of options traders holding calls and if you don't know what you're doing, you probably will be holding worthless options today. Trading options on earnings is a tricky thing to do if you don't know what you're doing, so be careful!
Now that we're here, I can say my target for NVDA is roughly $140, as long as we can stay above the $117/$118 level in the coming days, especially today. Continued support there will be important for a wave 5 move. September is typically bearish but not always. It may not get really bearish until after OpEx later in September, but I've seen labor day sell-offs in the past.
One day at a time. Be methodical. Have patience. Don't overleverage yourself.
NVIDIA: As growth slows, Market will correct evaluation of AINVIDIA continues to announce reports of a growing business, but this growth's velocity is slowing down. The chip designer has reached peak interest on the financial market both in institutional and private investors, for which the buy-back plans of NVIDIA might be the only remaining driver of evaluation.
The delay of Blackwell will lead to a stall of growth for the whole business, as data centers establishing new circuits for AI business rather pre-order the newest generation of chips and wait out their expansion than make do with the current set - after all, this hardware is supposed to run for years and rushing it won't help the bottom line when customers asked for most efficient and most recent cutting-edge hardware.
Known problems with generative AI aside, resistance against training AI with the internet is moving forward. X, formerly Twitter, excluded web access to it's data treasure ever since Elon Musk took over, and other websites are to follow. Internet service providers and web services announce a significant rise of traffic and requests - according to their own identification: AI training bots scraping the internet for training data. The problem: these bots aggressively scrape even for pages the web service providers don't want any bots to see. Google established the standard of putting a simple text file called robots.txt with a list of pages you don't want in the index up onto the top of your website. The new AI training and scraping bots ignore this text file and violate the privacy and consent of service and content providers. So what began with Elon Musks attempt to make a profitable business out of the internet's once most favored website, is now becoming a movement in size similar to the movement of blocking ads. Large content providers will take measure against illegitimate scraping or AI bots themselves, so the largest database of training data will soon vanish away from sight if AI bot engineers won't pick up the fight against measures counterfeiting their product.
To see how the fight might end, one can refer to the war against Ad Blockers, which is in a similar bind of endless fights. Google, the most dependent business on advertising, would rather have them out sooner than later, and even manipulates the most favorized browser in the world to render ad blockers ineffective. However, any measures taken by Google to counterfeit the users' legitimate measures to select the content they want to see as well as protecting their computer from malicious intent lead to Ad Blockers coming out even stronger in their function, ending Google partially giving up the fight.
For AI, training with the applied and collective knowledge of the internet could become much more expensive as important content providers such as Stack Overflow, a large Q&A solutions database for engineers, might want to cash in on the AI industry early-on. In general, the quality of future AI models is not only endangered by a degression of quality (by ingesting AI results and being unable to tell the difference) but also by a degression of free access.
The AI expansion in the industry is underway, but as the generative nature of it, with all its disadvantages, as well as upcoming difficulties, whether in court or in the web, putting brakes on the growth of the industry, AI products might take longer to establish. AI systems in its current generation are limited to assisting in service; they're unable to creative or critical thinking and make the best impression on people who are easily impressed and lack of deeper understanding of what the AI generates. For a finished product of high quality, manual improvements and, in general, humans assisting the process are required. Purely AI-generated products directly distributed, due to common availability of the technology, already give the impression of being cheap, untrustworthy and probably something the internet generated, according to surveys of analysts in the public communications and marketing sector. The generative nature of AI products works well in products relying on repetition and a low intellectual approach, such as production of pop songs or any other action movie, but will come to show negatively on everything requiring deeper thought, such as the creation of tailored software solutions.
For the present, as long as AI is only the generative machine deriving a remix of everything humans once wrote down, AI will remain more to be an Assisting Intelligence rather than being Artificial Intelligence.
$112 is a possibility for NVIDIA$112 is a possibility for NVIDIA
Nvidia announced impressive earnings that exceeded market expectations. The company reported a 122% year-over-year revenue growth, bringing in $30 billion for Q2, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.68, surpassing the forecast of $0.65.
Despite these strong results, the guidance for Q3 disappointed investors. Nvidia projected a revenue of $32 billion for the next quarter, which fell short of investor expectations.
As a result, investors reacted by selling off Nvidia shares, causing the stock price to drop by 8% in after-hours trading.
I am looking at Nvidia reversing to around $112 which is close to FIB50
CAN BE NVDA NEXT BIG MOVE TO THAT SUPPORTAfter Analyzing, Technically, That my predictions and next big move, waiting to that support of $98
Bubble territory All bubbles look the same, the US economy is holding by this one thread called NVIDIA... This chart looks exactly like BTC in 2018. See my post.
NVDA Bear/Bull tomorrow 8/20/2024NVIDIA (NVDA) recently reported strong earnings for Q2 2024, achieving record revenues of $30.0 billion, up 122% year-over-year. Despite these impressive figures, the stock has faced significant volatility, reflecting a complex market reaction that has disappointed many investors.
Market Reaction and NVDA's Position:
Price Action: After the earnings report, NVDA experienced a notable drop, which suggests that while the financial results were robust, the market may have priced in high expectations. The stock's decline indicates that traders might have been looking for even more optimistic guidance or perhaps were cautious due to the broader market environment.
Trend and Technical Analysis: On the 1-hour chart, NVDA shows a clear downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows. The stock has fallen below key support levels, with $123.09 and $118.15 being critical points to watch. The current price action suggests a bearish sentiment in the short term, with the possibility of further downside if it breaches the next support at $114.94.
Support and Resistance: The upper resistance around $136.20 and $131.26 could serve as significant hurdles if NVDA attempts a recovery. If the stock continues to struggle below these levels, it may indicate persistent selling pressure.
Volume and Momentum: The declining momentum and trading volume further confirm the bearish outlook. If the stock does not find support at the current levels, it could test lower supports, with $97.16 and $90.78 as possible targets.
*Despite the recent decline, NVDA remains a leader in the tech sector, especially in AI and data centers. The long-term growth potential is still intact, and the current dip could present a buying opportunity for those with a long-term horizon.
*For short-term traders, it's essential to be cautious due to the stock's volatility. The upcoming long weekend (Labor Day) could lead to lower liquidity, which might exacerbate price swings. It's advisable to set strict stop-loss orders and be mindful of potential market gaps when trading resumes after the holiday.
Overall, while the short-term outlook for NVDA seems challenging, the company's strong fundamentals and leadership position in key growth areas like AI suggest that the current pullback could be a temporary reaction, offering opportunities for disciplined traders.
THE NVDA THESISUsing the 1hr Time Frame, There is a head and shoulders pattern forming in the channel. The measured move can take NASDAQ:NVDA to 167ish if and when the breakout happens. The buy zone is between 104 and 109 where we have a couple of VPOC resting.
$NVDA - This is what I thinkNASDAQ:NVDA I bought a small starter position today, even though I mentioned that the ideal entry would be around the $95 area. I know, I committed a sin. Instead of waiting for it to come to me, I caught it in midair. 😂 Hopefully, the stock gods can find it in their hearts to forgive me.
Anyway, I’m watching the VWAP and trendline closely for a potential reversal.
On the other hand, if it breaks out from that broadening wedge, it could head to the $154 area.
With a $50 billion buyback in play, I don’t think it will get to the $95 area unless the macro environment deteriorates.
Targets:
$130
$140
$154
Supports:
$117
$109
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I’m not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
NVIDIA to $180Overview
It's a good mindset to be skeptical about a bull market that doesn't seem like it should exist. The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has declined for a second consecutive quarter to a 24 month low and the Civilian Unemployment Rate is the highest it's been since Nov 2021. This leads me to believe that the current rally is being mostly fueled by two factors surrounding artificial intelligence: hype and revenue. NASDAQ:NVDA is the leading A.I. developer and hasn't experienced a decrease in quarterly revenue since November 2022.
When faced with the unknown -- which in this case would be the direction of the stock market -- people cling to what they know. I believe this will present itself in more clearly defined trading patterns and price-swing predictability.
Technicals
NVDA is setting up a pattern that resembles the 5 Elliott Impulse Waves with each wave taking between 3-4 months to develop. If accurate, the trough of the 4th wave could find the share price in the proximity of $100-115.
I utilized Fibonacci levels against the low of the 2nd wave to the high of the 3rd wave. In addition to helping find a support level for the 4th wave, the uptrend Fibonacci tool also provided a projected price target near $180. I compared the 1.618 (161.8%) micro-Fibonacci retracement to the 1.618 macro-Fibonacci retracement, which consumes the entirety of the already existing patterns.
I took the difference of $18.19 between the projected 1.618 Fib levels then created a low and high range where I believe the 5th wave will peak. I ended my projection at this point, however, it is worth noting that impulse waves are followed by correction waves which serve in the opposite trending direction.
NVDA August 29, 2024: Pulling back to MA-50On August 29, 2024, after earnings, NASDAQ:NVDA pre-market is pulling back to its MA-50 and I think it is a valid buy point here.
As long as the price will trade above the MA-50 the trade can be considered working well.
The stop loss can be placed 2-3% below the MA-50.
Nvidia breakout Nvidia is a great company, but its AI product is a pure luck in a vacuum of competitors, with a list of flaws such as unexpected chip delays, high-energy consumption and a need for intensive cooling.
Here is how I see the future of the Nvidia stock.
$NVDA Bull Pennant or Bear Pennant in Disguise?NASDAQ:NVDA
This market is on AI "crack" and "hopium", disconnected from the reality of a declining labor market, ATH personal credit card defaults, and declining consumers who can't even afford to shop at the dollar general anymore.
Let's see how this crowded trade plays out.
1) Will China invade Taiwan and take NVDA down?
2) Will November elections prove to be the lynchpin for a bear market?
3) Will the FED just fire up the printer and BRRRRRRRRRR all the problems away with QE.
4) Will Buffet go ALL IN on NASDAQ:NVDA and drag retail traders along (LOL!).
Stay tuned!!!
NOTE: Not Trading or Investment Advice.
Triangle pattern in NVDAMy favorite triangle pattern in NVDA. In short term it should fall to around $107. If it starts increasing from here, we should see this reaching the peak of triangle, which is around $140.
Watch out at around $107 level.
Short NVIDIA. -80% within 12-16 months.Clear bubble price chart. Price always correct 80%. This time won't be different.
NVIDIA employees buying green lambos.
Study CISCO in the dotcom bubble.
This time won't be different.
Stop at ALL TIME HIGH and will reload higher.
2025 will be a recession.
$NVDA after earnings insights #NVDA has been a hot topic with the recent tech boom. This stock has recently seen several earnings reports of massive growth over the last few quarters and this earnings session was no different in my opinion. NVDA beat on every category and initiated a stock buy back! i think the market was just expecting more and the sell off will be temporary.
In this video I breakdown my outlook on NVDA and set expectations moving forward. i think we need to give it some room to work but there is opportunity. Im overall bullish on NVDA but i have a bearish back up plan going into September. Stay tuned for how we will probably end up making money both ways on this stock.
NVDA has pulled back for us to continue going LONG I have wanted to post a sell before earnings call but decided not to. Because if I'm wrong and the stock soar after earnings, some of you might have taken profit and miss the bull run. So I waited for earnings to post my analysis. Price has actually pulled back into $116 yesterday after earnings report. Now we continue the bull run. NASDAQ:NVDA
All analysis that I posted have been on point. Don't sleep on this one.
NVDA has good measured potential above last week's highs.NASDAQ:NVDA has room on the daily chart to about $135 if it can build above the highs from Friday and Thursday of last week. With earnings on Wednesday at 4:20 PM EDT, there should be significant opportunities to the long side if price continues to build above the daily 50 SMA. Equity was added long into the daily 9 EMA, and retest of the recent dark pool at $122.80, and I continue to swing long with targets at weekly highs and the daily upper Bollinger Band.
NVDA has a demand zone at the rising daily 5 SMA.NASDAQ:NVDA daily rising 5 SMA will be a potential demand zone tomorrow. I will be watching NVDA to hold this area for a long entry intraday. If NVDA loses this area, there is room back down to the daily 50 SMA, which is a major potential demand zone. This may provide an intraday short opportunity under today's low into these demand zones, and the ability to add equity long for a swing if these demand zones hold.
Fundamental Narrative Remains IntactOur analysis indicates that any pullback in NVIDIA's stock is likely to be brief, provided the fundamental narrative remains intact.
Wishing everyone here good luckOn to the next chapter of investments. Farewell NVDA, was a good ride! This is one of my favorite stocks hate to see you go.
Lets go 2015 and 2022 gang. keep it up! dont stop!
A Dilemma: Do Stock prices moves Options or Vice Versa???This interesting question touches on the complex relationship between stock prices and option prices. Let's break down this dilemma:
1. The theoretical relationship:
In theory, stock prices drive option prices. Options are derivatives, meaning their value is derived from the underlying asset (in this case, the stock). The Black-Scholes model and other option pricing models use the stock price as an input to calculate option values.
2. The practical reality:
In practice, the relationship can become more complex, especially in the short term. There are scenarios where options trading can influence stock prices, creating a feedback loop.
3. How options can influence stocks:
- Delta hedging: Market makers who sell options often hedge their positions by buying or selling the underlying stock. This can create buying or selling pressure on the stock.
- Large option positions: Significant option volumes can signal bullish or bearish sentiment, potentially influencing trader behavior in the stock market.
- Pinning: As expiration approaches, there can be forces that "pin" a stock to a particular option strike price due to hedging activities.
4. The max pain theory:
This theory suggests that option trading can influence stock prices, particularly near expiration, pulling the stock price toward the maximum pain point.
5. Short-term vs. long-term effects:
While options can influence stock prices in the short term, fundamental factors (like earnings, economic conditions, etc.) tend to dominate in the longer term.
6. Market efficiency considerations:
In highly liquid markets, any predictable influence of options on stocks should, in theory, be quickly arbitraged away. However, markets aren't always perfectly efficient.
7. Regulatory perspective:
Regulators are aware of potential market manipulation through options and monitor for such activities.
In conclusion, while the primary relationship is stock prices influencing option prices, there can be feedback effects where options trading influences stock prices, especially in the short term. This creates a complex, interconnected system that traders and analysts must navigate carefully.
Max Pain theory in options trading is an interesting concept. Here's a concise overview:
Max Pain refers to the strike price where option buyers (collectively) would experience the maximum financial pain, or loss, at expiration. Conversely, it's the price at which option sellers would profit the most.
Key points:
1. It's based on the idea that option sellers (often market makers) try to manipulate the underlying asset's price toward maximum pain.
2. Calculated by determining the price at which the value of all outstanding options would be minimized.
3. Used by some traders to predict where a stock's price might gravitate as expiration approaches.
Max Pain theory is controversial. While some traders swear by it, others are skeptical of its predictive power. It's important to note that many factors influence stock prices, and Max Pain is just one potential consideration.
NVDA:
Total open interest: 28.4 million contract
while SPX, SPY, QQQ, IWm, and TSLA's open interest is: 21,20.5,13.5,6.9 million respectively.
Total open interest is an important metric in options and futures trading. Here's a concise overview:
1. Definition:
Total open interest refers to the total number of outstanding contracts (options or futures) that have not been settled or closed.
2. Calculation:
It's the sum of all open positions across all strike prices and expiration dates for a particular underlying asset.
3. Significance:
- Market activity indicator: Higher open interest generally indicates more active and liquid markets.
- Trend confirmation: Increasing open interest can confirm the strength of a price trend.
4. Interpretation:
- Rising open interest + rising prices: Often indicates a bullish trend.
- Rising open interest + falling prices: Often indicates a bearish trend.
- Falling open interest: May suggest a weakening of the current trend.
5. Contrasts with volume:
- Volume measures the number of contracts traded in a given period.
- Open interest represents the number of active contracts at a point in time.
6. Uses:
- Assessing market sentiment
- Gauging the strength of price movements
- Identifying potential support/resistance levels
7. Limitations:
- Doesn't indicate the direction of trades (long vs. short)
- Can be misleading if not considered alongside other factors
Nvidia (NVDA): A Beacon in the Tech Sea - Remains a Strong BuyNvidia (NVDA): A Beacon in the Tech Sea
Nvidia, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has consistently demonstrated its ability to navigate the complex landscape of technology. While the stock has experienced recent fluctuations, its underlying fundamentals remain strong, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
A Strong Financial Foundation
Nvidia's financial performance has been nothing short of exceptional. The company's revenue surged by 122.40% year-over-year, far surpassing market expectations. Additionally, its earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by a comfortable margin, underscoring its robust financial health.
Market Leadership and Future Potential
Nvidia's position as a market leader in the semiconductor industry is undeniable. With a massive market capitalization of $3.09 trillion, the company has a significant presence in critical segments such as data centers and artificial intelligence. Its ongoing commitment to innovation ensures that it remains at the forefront of technological advancements, driving future growth.
Navigating Short-Term Challenges
While the stock has experienced a recent decline, it's important to view this as a potential short-term market correction. Despite a slight decrease in institutional holdings, major investors like The Vanguard Group have increased their positions, indicating continued confidence in Nvidia's long-term prospects.
Why Nvidia Remains a Strong Buy
Innovation and Growth: Nvidia's relentless pursuit of innovation in AI and computing positions it for sustained growth.
Financial Health: A strong balance sheet provides a solid foundation for future success.
Market Leadership: Nvidia's dominant position in key segments gives it a competitive advantage.
Path to Recovery
As market sentiment improves and Nvidia continues to deliver impressive financial results, the stock is well-positioned for a rebound. Positive analyst ratings and target prices further reinforce this outlook.
In conclusion, while short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, Nvidia's strong fundamentals, market leadership, and commitment to innovation make it a compelling investment choice. Investors seeking exposure to the technology sector may find Nvidia to be a valuable addition to their portfolios.
------------------------------------------------------------
Risk Disclaimer!
The article information and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses. Risk Disclaimer! General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss!
