BEARISH NVDAHI FRIENDS. As per my last post on this stock we saw the stock flying high in a long bur now looks ready for a sell as our wedge has been broken.sell now and ENJOY
NVD trade ideas
Market Dynamics Part 2: How to Spot Distribution
Welcome to the second part of our two-part series on market dynamics, where we explore how underlying supply and demand impact price action.
In Part 1, we examined how to spot the Accumulation phase of the market cycle, where institutional investors quietly build their positions. Today, we're delving deep into the Distribution phase, a crucial period where these same investors begin to offload their shares. We will reveal the subtle clues that can help you identify the Distribution phase and better align your trades with the market's natural ebb and flow.
The Market Cycle Revisited
Let’s revisit the Market Cycle that we introduced in Part 1. The Distribution phase is characterised by sideways price movement as the institutional 'smart money' begin to sell their shares without wanting to cause a drastic price drop. This phase in the Market Cycle model precedes the Markdown phase, during which selling pressure intensifies.
The Market Cycle
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Why Spotting Distribution Matters
To quote the American economist Michael Hudson, "Stocks always go down much faster than they go up. That's why it's called a crash." This highlights the critical importance of the Distribution phase in the Market Cycle. Recognising this phase early can provide traders with several strategic advantages:
Strategic Entry and Exit: Spotting Distribution early allows traders to adjust their strategies based on emerging market conditions. For instance, if you're already long on a stock, early signs of Distribution might signal the need to exit your position to avoid potential losses. Conversely, for short sellers, identifying Distribution can present an opportunity to enter positions before a significant price drop.
Optimised Risk Management: During the mark down phase, market volatility often increases, with price movements becoming more erratic. By identifying Distribution early, traders can adjust their stop-loss levels and risk management strategies accordingly.
Trade Management: Early identification of Distribution can enhance your trade management practices. If you're long on a stock and start to see signs of Distribution, it might be beneficial to exit early, locking in profits before the market turns.
How to Spot Distribution
Traders should think of the Accumulation and Distribution phases of the Market Cycle as a game of deception. Institutional investors are masters at disguising their true intentions. During Accumulation, they quietly build positions, while during Distribution, they gradually offload them.
Here are some key indicators to help you spot Distribution:
1. Clustering of Swing Highs
During the Distribution phase, prices often form a series of swing highs that cluster together, with each high struggling to make significant progress beyond the previous one. This clustering signals resistance, as selling pressure increases and buyers fail to push the price higher. This pattern reflects the market's inability to sustain upward momentum and is a classic sign of Distribution.
2. Long-Tailed Candles
Long-tailed candles, particularly those with upper shadows, indicate weak daily closes. These candles form when prices rise during the trading session but then fall back down, closing near the session’s low. This pattern suggests that sellers are stepping in to push prices lower after a brief rally, highlighting the growing selling pressure typical of the Distribution phase.
3. Tightening Trading Range
As the Distribution phase progresses, you will often observe a tightening of the sideways trading range. This narrowing range reflects a balance between buying and selling pressures but leans towards an eventual breakout to the downside. The reduced volatility and compression of price action are indicative of the market preparing for a transition to the Markdown phase.
By focusing on these three key signs, traders can potentially gain a tactical edge in anticipating price movements and aligning their strategies accordingly.
Practical Examples
Nikola Corp (NKLA)
Here’s a great example of distribution occurring in Nikola. Notice the clustering of swing highs and the failure to make progress past previous swing highs. Also notice how we start to see multiple long-tailed candles which highlight weak daily closes. We then see a break of the tightening range leading to a prolonged markdown phase.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Netflix (NFLX)
In this example we see Netflix start to form a tight sideways range characterised by a series of small swing highs. Notice the weak closes as resistance starts to form. The distribution phase leads to a short sharp markdown phase.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
We hope you enjoyed this two-part mini-series on market dynamics. By understanding the Accumulation and Distribution phases of the Market Cycle, traders can gain valuable insights into the subtle yet powerful forces driving price action.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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Hi, i'm trying to revisit the Nvidia Journey here i'm trying to do some historical analysis , trying to find some important historical patterns which impacted the Nvidia price movement then and still valid or might impact the future price movement
I' hv a strong believe that price move within the constraint of the historical patterns and form new one for the future
full analysis will take few days, today , i'm starting with simple tl/angles formed by the first 2 monthly candles , in next 3 graphics u will find the impact of these 2 angles
Chart Pattern Analysis Of NVDA
K2 and K3 obviously close below the uptrend line,
The supply is increasing.
A potential double top is on the way.
A nearest support is 0.382fib area.
I will try to buy it there.
And, I am still optimistic to the long-term bull market.
Short-126.8/Stop-130.7/Target-112.3
NVDA SELL+++ $100 comingVery bearish, SELL signal, trading under the cloud support, rallies are to be SOLD not bought in this overhyped bubble
Nvidia is back in the Target Box and Headed to test $111.33I want to make something clear. I have kept a purple arrow on my Nvidia chart for sometime. Purple is the color I associate my secondary expectations, or sometimes referred to as alternative. Black is my primary. All that means is the pattern has more than one outcome given the current price action we have.
In both cases, I expect price is to test the $111-$112 area, and that would be the normal area for a standard retracement. The precise price point of A=C for a measured move is $111.33.
There we should soon afterwards get important answers as to whether we extend lower, or find a bottom and head to new highs.
Chris
Descending triangle - Short term Bull, longer term BearSeems to be trading in a descending triangle pattern using $118 resistance level as the base.
I think we go up to the upper trend line at least one more time before the pattern completes.
Nvidia $NVDA to $97-$102 by August 16th - PUT$!Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , the A.I. Behemoth, and darling of the 2024 hype-cycle... POP!
With this -6% fall, NVDA has broken below that line of short term support. In my mind, this break has just solidified the 2nd WAVE to the downside.
I believe we'll experience some support around NVDA's 50-day moving average (-2.7%), but I stand behind my thesis that Nvidia stock falls to $102 by mid-august. It may even fall as low as $97 in order to re-test those prior March-April ceilings as new floors.
Always remember... You can fall A LOT faster than you can climb.
Our 8/16 $110 NVDA puts over at WAVE$ Capital are up +95% at the time of writing, and I think that they're just getting warmed up.
NVIDIA Up Again Soon?I don't think so, but keep an open mind. I heard a week ago Nancy Pelosi bought more, lol.
NVDA LongSemis down on rumors that Biden administration will be cutting down on chip exports to China.
Last time this occurred, semis shrugged it off in coming weeks.
Hoping for bounce at this multi-tested low. Tight stop, as confirmation of double-top formation could send the stock down to $105 levels.
Nvidia Climbs 155% While Facing AI Ethical CriticismNvidia remains a significant player in the AI industry, grouped with companies like Apple and Anthropic, which have been criticized for training their AI technologies by extracting subtitles from 173,536 YouTube videos across over 48,000 channels, including content from notable creators such as MrBeast and PewDiePie. This practice violates YouTube's terms by using content without creator consent, posing legal and ethical issues.
Financially, Nvidia's stock experienced a substantial 86% rise from mid-April to June, followed by a stabilization period with prices oscillating between $117 and $140. Despite this slowdown, the company's year-to-date growth is impressive at 155%, with a potential for stock values to climb past $150 if demand for AI continues to surge.
The ongoing ethical debate around AI data usage underscores the importance of regulatory compliance and maintaining trust in the tech industry's use of content. This dialogue is crucial for shaping future AI governance.
NVDA Bear FlagNVDA broke down and starting consolidating in what looks like to be a bear flag. Measured move puts it at 101.52, which is slightly below the 50 day SMA and slightly above the 20 week SMA.
Watch for RSI to get to oversold levels. I think we will bottom there (if it happens).
NVDA Retesting Symmetrical Pennant BreakoutNVDA broke out of the symmetrical pennant and reached its PT of 135.
It rejected off it with today's CPI data. The data was good and increased the odds of a September rate cut, so I'm viewing this move down as a fakeout to the downside.
Price is currently testing from above the 20 SMA on the daily chart. I think we will bottom here and go to new highs soon.
Megacaps vs Small Caps: Has Nvidia Done This Before?Nvidia has embodied the megacap growth trend for more than a year. Now there could be signs of sentiment shifting -- at least for a little while.
Today’s idea uses two charts to consider potential changes in market conditions.
First, Jensen Huang’s semiconductor giant showed some potentially similar patterns in March and June. Both times, it jumped to a record high on strong results and peaked a few weeks later. Both tops had bearish outside days followed by lower highs. Then periods of consolidation set in.
MACD also turned lower and Wilder’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) slid from overbought conditions.
NVDA bottomed 29 sessions after its March 8 reversal day. If a similar period applies this time, it could suggest sideways movement will last through the start of August.
In the meantime, traders seem to be focusing on small caps and cyclical sectors like financials and industrials . That brings us to the second chart, a ratio of the Russell 2000 against the Nasdaq-100.
It clearly shows small caps’ relative underperformance, which began in mid-2006.
The lower study reveals that the ratio jumped 11.65 percent in the last two weeks. That’s the biggest two-week gain since 2002. Some chart watchers may also notice the ratio’s bullish outside candle after hitting an all-time low. Those patterns could also suggest a bottom has occurred.
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Nvidia 1W Forecast until end of September 2024Old trend begging for correction.
To stay healthy it needs a decent rest no shorter than a month bottoming at 103-ish.
In the end of August it may resume to move up, but printing a lower high peaking in the end of September at 117.
Nothing panicky about $NVDA so far.The chart does seem overextended, but I view it as a return to normality rather than panic selling.
In fact, the entire market appears to be a "return to the mean" kind of market. What used to work, the Magnificent 7, has decreased slightly, but all the other 493 stocks are up.
It's an overdue correction of an extended market.
Notice the change in colour on my graph from blue to white a few weeks ago, which warned us about the decrease in bulls' power.
Key points to watch for
The first line of defence - $114
The second line of defence -$98
If you break the second level you are entitled to panic, until then look for other opportunities in the market. They seemed to be plenty now.
If you want the indicator described, send me a message.
Nothing panicky about $NVDA so far.
The chart does seem overextended, but I view it as a return to normality rather than panic selling.
It's an overdue correction of an extended market.
Notice the change in colour on my graph from blue to white a few weeks ago, which warned us about the decrease in bulls' power.
Key points to watch for
The first line of defence - $114
The second line of defence -$98
If you break the second level you are entitled to panic, until then look for other opportunities in the market. They seemed to be plenty now.
If you want the indicator described, send me a message.
Gaming the Market: Shorting NVDA a Power Play?Trade:
Entry: Short layered in around 132, w/ stop loss at 142
Profit target: 97
Levels of Interest:
Gap (95-100) in IPDA 60
.61 Fib retracement to same gap area.
Making its mark back to 130 on the solid trendlineWhether the momentum continues with other stocks, the market air or the fact that it's back to business after an eventful 4th of July. I'm seeing all the signs of bullish sentiment.
NVIDIA _ Corporation _ Under _ Trading _ Venue _ NASDAQ. NVIDIA _ Corporation _ Under _ Trading _ Venue _ NASDAQ.
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Now lets Breakdown NVIDIA step by step!
$129.69
$132.00
$135.90
$137.62
$138.47
$138.89
$140.04 follow by $140.024
Chart Pattern Analysis Of NVDA
K3 break up the ice line,
It verified a fact that the supply pressure had been totally absorbed.
The support at 118 USD is solid.
So, it is likely that a larger scale consolidation is on the way,
It will push the price up to test the upper price area of 134-140 USD.
Or, another bull run had started from K3.
This is a first good place to buy in.
I will establish a tentative long positions at K3.
Long-126.5/Stop-124/Target-140
NVDA: Trading Near Key Support Levels (D&W charts).The chart for NVDA reveals key levels and patterns that that could change the game for it.
On the daily chart, NVDA is currently trading within a defined range, with resistance around $140.76 and support near $118.04, between the ATH and its key support level. This consolidation phase comes after a strong uptrend, suggesting the market is taking a breather before potentially making its next significant move.
However, the bias is slightly bullish, as the 21-day EMA is still acting as a support level today. Any bullish reaction around this EMA would be interesting.
On the weekly chart, the $118.04 level is highlighted as a main support level and a possible bearish pivot point. This level is also observed on the daily chart, reinforcing its significance.
If the price breaks below this support, it could signal the beginning of a bearish phase, with the next major support around the $97.40 level, which aligns with the top of the previous consolidation phase before the latest rally. The weekly chart also shows that the price is still above the 21-week EMA, indicating the overall long-term trend remains bullish despite the recent consolidation.
To summarize, NVDA is currently in a consolidation phase within a well-defined range on the daily chart, with resistance at $140.76 (ATH) and support at $118.04. The bias is still bullish as the price is still above the 21-day EMA, however, if we lose this key support level, NVDA will lose momentum. In order to trigger a bear trend, it needs to lose the $118.04.
We should watch for a breakout above the resistance for bullish confirmation or a breakdown below the support for a potential bearish move. Until then, range-bound trading strategies may be effective, focusing on buying near support and maybe selling near resistance. Be careful selling NVDA, as it is a bull trend, after all.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Nvidia - History repeating itself?I drew the first leg of the trend and then copied the first leg and pasted it over our current trend. Is Nvidia history repeating the trend again?
