EXXONMOBIL: double before 2030?Hello.The 20 moving average is not only bullish but is constantly beating its all-time highs.
XONA trade ideas
ExxonMobil double bottom signals potential bullish pushBig oil is a major theme for traders next week, with giants ExxonMobil and Chevron both reporting. From a sector perspective, energy names are expected to report the biggest drop in annual earnings (-37%). However, the quarterly picture looks to provide a more positive shift according to ExxonMobil estimates, with earnings per share expected to reverse upwards after four consecutive declines. The obvious driver of revenues will be the value of underlying commodities, with the Brent global benchmark rising from $72 per barrel to $97 over the three-month period.
According to an October disclosure from ExxonMobil, the company expects profits to receive a healthy boost from higher oil, gas and fuel prices. That has lifted the outlook for earnings and revenues, with operating profits expected between $8.3 billion and $11.4 billion. That would represent a rise from the second quarter, but below the figure a year ago.
The recent purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources highlights the consolidation seen in US shale, with ExxonMobil now the biggest player. Despite speculation that Joe Biden’s policies could lead to the demise of US oil, we have seen record output this year. With this purchase, they have hugely strengthened their footprint in the largest oil producing region in the US (Permian Basin). This signals to investors that they play to continue their focus on fossil fuels as competitors such as Shell transition towards a green strategy.
From a charting perspective, the recent intraday double bottom looks to bring a bullish theme heading into NYSE:XOM earnings. That pattern took place above the 76.4% Fibonacci support level, with the break up through the $112 neckline bringing a more bullish picture into play.
From a wider perspective, the pattern of higher lows does look likely to persist, with a break below the $100 mark required to bring an end to that trend. The weekly chart highlights the uptrend very well, with a move up towards the $120 looking a distinct possibility as a result.
XOM Short M15 and M30 are overbought with multiple tops and divergence and there is a M15 pattern, this trade is with the trend so it should be able to fall to the bottom where it will get supported.
EXXON MOBIL Buy opportunity lower.Exxon Mobil is trading between the MA50 and MA200 (1d) which is approximately the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci range.
Technically the most usual buy opportunity is on the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the 0.236 Fibonacci level breaks.
Targets:
1. 119.00 (the High on 3 separate occasions).
Tips:
1. When the RSI (1d) is on a downtrend and reverses to cross over the MA trend line, it is an action that validates the buy. Use this as an additional tool.
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Massive Turn UpsideAfter the four-day sell-off, buying pressure is definitely gonna be huge this upcoming week I'm in here at these low levels.
$XOM: Expecting 115 To Be DifficultExxon might be struggling with 115 and I think there's a possibility we look below there as this may be getting a bit heavy
SELL Signal on EXXON MOBILHello everyone,
My name is Abdessamad, and I've been posting my ideas on the stock market for a while. I've come to the conclusion that my strategy is working, with a success rate of over 70%, especially in investment and swing trades. You can find a record of my ideas in my profile.
Now, let's discuss ExxonMobil Corporation. First and foremost, as a technical analyst, my strategy is based on volume and price action. I've observed a significant breakout from a bearish channel with a substantial increase in trading volume. This suggests that this stock is likely to return to its initial trend level around $100.
Now, let's talk about risk management. This trade has a risk-reward ratio of over 2, meaning you stand to gain more than twice what you risk.
I hope you find my idea beneficial, and I'll be back soon with more of my analyses.
XOM Short for November ERDaily chart posted. Liquidity pool was forced into the equal highs around $120 and starting to fall right back into $110. If we don't hold this $110 level we should continue the move downward to $100 and lower. I personally noticed that December 15 $100 puts had over 20k in volume today and decided to scoop a few contracts myself. With earnings in early November, we have enough of a catalyst to force a strong move back down into $95 but at least $100 and below.
Make Exxon Great Again. As Here's A Hundred Fold OpportunityElectric vehicles are growing so fast that Exxon Mobil is preparing for a future when "customers don’t need that gasoline".
Exxon Mobil Corp., which operates one of the world’s biggest oil-refining networks, is trying to be more responsive to changing consumer demands as the energy transition gathers pace. The changes it’s considering include potentially replacing some gasoline production with chemicals.
The oil giant has long pursued a strategy of upgrading refineries to expand production and make higher-value products from crude oil such as lubricants and plastic feedstock. But it now sees those projects potentially helping the company to move away from traditional fuels, demand for which is likely to wane in coming decades.
The strategy, discussed in August 2023 by executives at a presentation to investors and media, shows how even Exxon, one of the leading proponents of fossil fuels, is being forced to reckon with a future in which electric vehicles significantly eat into gasoline consumption.
Exxon has already reduced production of fuel oil and high-sulfur petroleum at refineries in Singapore and the UK. Over time, it’s open to cutting output of gasoline, the focus of the company’s refining business since Henry Ford introduced the Model T nearly 100 years ago. The goal is to produce more chemicals, found in everything from paint to plastic, for which there are few low-carbon alternatives.
"We’re planning on modifying some of that yield from gasoline to distillate and chemicals feed," Jack Williams, Exxon senior vice president, said earlier this year at the company’s office in Spring, Texas. "We’ve got projects that we know we would do to take those steps."
Exxon gets most of its earnings from oil and natural gas production but refining has always been in its corporate DNA, right back to its original incarnation as part of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, which was established in the 19th century.
Refining allows Exxon to earn money right along the fossil fuel supply chain, from the wellhead to the gas tank. But with traditional fuels such as gasoline under threat from EVs, refineries worldwide are being forced to adapt quickly. Some European plants shut down during the pandemic, while others in the US switched to biodiesel.
Exxon wants to take a more nuanced approach by upgrading facilities to switch in and out of products depending on demand. To give an example, an Exxon refinery in Singapore used to produce fuel oil that sold for $10 per barrel below the price of Brent crude, but after a recent upgrade, the facility produces lubricant base stocks that sell for $50 above Brent.
Exxon has upgraded and added to its refineries at Fawley in the UK and Beaumont in Texas to produce more diesel, which is used for heavy-duty transportation and is less vulnerable to competition from electric vehicles.
"You just have more variables now due to the energy transition," said Jay Saunders, a natural resources fund managers at Jennison Associates, which has $186 billion under management. "Having a high-quality refining asset with flexibility will be very important."
Exxon’s refining and chemicals footprint is at least double that of its Big Oil competitors, potentially making it more vulnerable to a speedy energy transition, and especially the growth of electric vehicles. But executives believe the potential for reconfigurations is far greater than that of its peers, providing an opportunity to profit in a low-carbon future.
"This really allows us to pivot as demand evolves," said Karen McKee, President of Exxon’s Product Solutions division.
Biodiesel is particularly attractive to Exxon because reconfiguring its existing refineries costs about half as much as building a new plant, said Neil Hansen, senior vice president of product solutions. Demand for biodiesel, which is manufactured from vegetable oil or recycled restaurant grease, is expected to quadruple to 9 million barrels a day by 2050, he said.
Exxon is halfway through an eight-year plan to overhaul its fuels and chemicals division, which also involves cutting costs, improving operational performance and selling assets that don’t make the grade. Exxon will operate just 13 refineries worldwide by the end of 2023 after selling five in the past four years to focus on the biggest and lowest-cost operations.
Chemicals will be key to the strategy’s success. Exxon sees demand growth for its high-performance chemicals at about 7% a year, contrasting sharply with gasoline, which is expected to peak globally by the end of the decade. To keep up with this demand, Exxon plans to build a new dedicated chemical plant every four to seven years, Williams said.
The company’s refineries provide an additional means to make chemicals, but they will focus on responding to consumer preference rather than making a big bet on any particular product, Williams said.
"We’re not going to do it while the demand is still there," he said. "We’re going to it at a time when the demand trends are clear and customers don’t need that gasoline."
At the same time technical picture in Exxon stocks (dividends adjusted) illustrates Exxon got a huge support of 30-years SMA, and right here is a key Multiyear breakout.
Further a hundred fold growth is right there to come. Make Exxon Great Again.
#MEGA
XOM, HUGE WAVE-EXTENSIONS, Oil-Market View, UPCOMING TRENDS!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about XOM on several timeframe perspectives. The oil market has shown up with a massive pullback to the downside since the war developments have put heavy pressure on the whole oil market and drove the supply rally within the market. Since then the market managed to recover with a substantial rally moving into new all-time-highs and is actually forming a massive gigantic formational-structure here from where the market is setting up further determination dimensions.
Currently XOM is forming a continuation-formation on the local timeframes which is an crucial wedge-formation, and this wedge-formation has a increased potential to complete within the next times. Once this formation has been completed the targets as mentioned in my analysis are going to be activated. From there on the volatility within the market has to be determined further and if the already established XOM developments hold on there is an increased possibility for the market to continue into the already established direction.
XOM being the largest market-cap stock within the oil market sector is driving the oil market and wall street developments of oil stocks increasing by over 60%. The fact that the oil market could recover from the main war shocks that showed up with massive bearish pullbacks within the whole market does not mean this holds true for the whole stock market because there are sector stocks within the market that actually show greater bearish inclinations. In this case it will be highly determining on how the whole oil market actually continues and if the established dynamic holds on for this sector stock.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
XOM: $120 Price TargetEntered this one on last Thursday with some $117 October calls. 1h Chart on the left got us our golden pocket entry and now we're trying to regain the uptrend. Looks like we'll get one more chance to enter under $115.35 where there is a set of very clear equal lows from where I see us bouncing to $120 sometime into next week.
XOM shortXOM short position with 1st TP at level $102 and 2nd level $92.
Warning!!!!
This content should not be interpreted as financial advice.
XOM time for a pull back NYSE:XOM Evaluating Entry Opportunities Amid Rising Oil Prices
In the realm of market analysis, it has come to attention that the price of oil has been on an upward trajectory for a sustained period. Such an environment often piques the interest of investors and traders seeking opportune moments to initiate positions. Let's delve into the factors and considerations pertinent to assessing whether this is indeed a favorable juncture for entry into the oil market.
Price Trend Analysis: The foremost aspect to scrutinize is the price trend of oil. A consistent upward movement in oil prices may be driven by various factors, such as increased demand, geopolitical tensions, or supply constraints. To ascertain the strength and sustainability of this trend, it's crucial to examine historical price data and technical indicators. This analysis aids in understanding the underlying market dynamics.
Fundamental Factors: Fundamental analysis plays a pivotal role. Evaluate the fundamental drivers behind the rising oil prices. Are there geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions? Has there been a significant shift in global demand? Keeping a close eye on factors like these can help you gauge the longevity of the price surge.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: The oil market is heavily influenced by the balance between supply and demand. An imbalance, whether due to production cuts or sudden increases in demand, can lead to price fluctuations. Thoroughly assess the current supply and demand dynamics to anticipate future price movements.
Technical Indicators: Utilize technical indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and trendlines, to identify potential entry points. These tools can help in pinpointing favorable buying opportunities within the context of the prevailing uptrend.
Risk Management: Assess your risk tolerance and develop a robust risk management strategy. This includes setting stop-loss levels, determining position sizes, and considering potential adverse scenarios. Oil prices can be highly volatile, and prudent risk management is essential to protect your capital.
Diversification: Consider how an investment in oil fits into your broader portfolio. Diversification across asset classes can help mitigate risk. Ensure that your decision to enter the oil market aligns with your overall investment objectives and risk profile.
Market Sentiment: Keep a finger on the pulse of market sentiment. Sentiment can sway oil prices significantly, especially in the short term. News, social media, and expert opinions can provide valuable insights into market sentiment.
Global Events: Be mindful of global events that can impact oil prices. These include OPEC decisions, geopolitical conflicts, economic data releases, and environmental regulations. Any of these factors can swiftly alter the trajectory of oil prices.
Long-Term vs. Short-Term Strategy: Determine whether you are pursuing a short-term trading opportunity or a long-term investment in oil. Your strategy should align with your investment horizon and objectives.
In summary, while a sustained uptrend in oil prices may appear attractive for entry, it's crucial to conduct comprehensive analysis, factor in your risk tolerance, and stay informed about the multifaceted forces influencing oil markets. Consider consulting with financial advisors or experts who specialize in commodities for personalized guidance before making investment decisions. Remember that investing in commodities, like oil, carries inherent risks, and a well-informed approach is vital to success.
Value vs Growth - XOM vs AMZNI suggested it was time to rotate away from frothy growth stocks that were pumped by the AI narrative recently, and buy into value stocks. I've discussed the bull case for India, Crude Oil, etc. at length already, and the signal from Ten Year Yields pointing for much higher rates, which together with deglobalization and various other bearish and inflationary fundamental cues swayed me in this direction.
We now have a nice signal in Exxon, which by itself is trending up in monthly scale and has ample upside (I got some long term OTM call options going). I added long exposure as a pair trade vs Amazon today.
You have roughly 20% downside risk to make close to 100% in the ratio now.
Which is a very attractive return.
Additionally, track the VTV vs VUG ratio, although the mega cap value ETF is a bit riskier than energy itself, it will likely follow this trend as well. (Or more simply put, SPY vs QQQ)
Many ways to express the same idea, which revolves around the trend in rates.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Exxon Mobil is setting for the breakoutExxon Mobil in focus this week amid strength of Crude oil and increasing bullish sentiment for energy assets. Technically, it might break the 119.50 level: should this happen, bullish momentum can accelerate. The main event in focus: FED's decision and a press-conference of Jerome Powell.
XOM Inside Bar w/ Bullish TrendTitle says it all, possible Higher Low being punched in on the 4h with an Inside bar candle stick con firming that sellers are exhausted and buyers may be stepping in to take back over. CALLS valid above green line, Pt white dashed lines.
Short term bearish diamond to $113 ppsShort term bearish diamond for scalp or day traders...May take us to $113 first followed by a bounce and continuation down towards $100 psych in the coming week(s).
Educational purposes only!
XOM Likely to Face Resistance at $119.71 All-Time High
I have been tracking XOM since joining the group in May. I was hopeful that XOM would present a buy opportunity at the $94 green trendline, but XOM showed a lot of bullishness at $100.
In July I decided to adjust my buy target to a $101-104 buy zone, marked by the white circle and entered into a trade there.
XOM has experienced a bullish 8-week rally and is nearing its $119.71 all-time high price target.
XOM has already broken above the upper range of the Bollinger Band, which is sitting at $116.29. I believe that XOM is overbought and will drop back into the Bollinger Band range.
XOM is approaching a key price target, which is the red resistance line at XOM’s $119.71 all-time high.
I’m looking for XOM to climb shortly above this red resistance line before having a pullback (drawn with a white line and arrow).
XOM has shown a consolidation patternXOM has shown a consolidation pattern
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of ExxonMobil's stock in the past 4 years. The graph overlays the bottom to top golden section at the beginning of 2020. As shown in the figure, ExxonMobil's stock has shown a consolidation pattern of high to strong overall after completing a small level double top at the beginning of this year! The small double top of ExxonMobil's stock at the beginning of this year was suppressed by the 3.618 level of the gold split at the bottom of the graph, and did not touch any strong support level for the low point of the pullback thereafter! So, in the future, the stock market of ExxonMobil is likely to weaken and continue to retreat towards the downside!
XOM Triple BottomSimple triple bottom pattern on XOM with macro momentum shifting back bullish after a period of consolidation before the next leg up. Profit target is the highs and runners after if you wish. 20% Stop loss 9/8 expo, after green level is broken. If stop is hit look for re-entry above green level according to 10m chart price action. Expect this play to go 50%+ but nothing in the market is ever 100%.
$XOM Parallel Uptrend The trajectory of NYSE:XOM reveals a parallel uptrend, mirroring the recent impressive performance of energy stocks. Currently, the energy sector exudes a distinctly bullish sentiment, underpinned by notable market trends. A bullish outlook prevails as long as NYSE:XOM maintains a position above the crucial threshold of 104, indicating a potentially promising trajectory for this energy giant.
$XOM with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:XOM after a negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 66.67%.
Exxon May Be Trying to Break OutEnergy is the only sector with a positive return so far in August. Today’s chart focuses on Exxon Mobil, the biggest and most liquid name in the group.
First consider the trendline along the highs of May 8 and July 3. XOM surged after breaking out and has now come down to hold the same line. Is old resistance becoming new support?
Second, last week’s lows represented a 50 percent retracement of the move from the July low to the August high.
Third, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA. That potentially suggests its short-term trend is getting bullish. (Only 21 percent of S&P 500’s members could make make such a claim last Friday, according to TradeStation data.)
Last week’s bounce also occurred at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is additionally trying to turn higher.
These points could make traders look for more gains if XOM can break the falling trendline that’s appeared since mid-August.
Finally, fundamentals may support energy. Crude-oil inventories have been lower than expected the last two weeks and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) recently hit the lowest level since late-1983.
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