Natural Gas (XNG/USD) – Big Move ComingNat Gas is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, meaning a breakout is coming soon. The big question is: which direction?
Key Levels to Watch
Resistance: $4.20 - $4.22 → If we break and hold above, bulls could take over.
Support: $4.10 - $4.12 → If this breaks, we could see a bigger sell-off.
Right now, the setup leans slightly bearish, but I’m not convinced until we get a clear break. A move below $4.10 could send us toward $4.00 - $3.80, while a breakout above $4.22 could push us to $4.30 - $4.40.
What’s Driving the Market?
Bullish Case (Higher Demand)
A strong cold wave in the U.S. is increasing heating demand.
Production freeze-offs due to extreme weather could tighten supply.
Bearish Case (More Supply Coming In)
U.S. production is rising, and pipeline expansions will add even more supply.
Possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could bring more gas back into Europe, reducing global demand pressure.
Both sides have strong arguments, which is why this triangle is so important—once we break out, it’ll tell us which force is stronger.
How I’d Trade It
If we break below $4.10, I’d look for a short:
Target 1: $4.00
Target 2: $3.80
Stop loss: Above $4.15
If we break above $4.22, I’d consider a long:
Target 1: $4.30
Target 2: $4.40
Stop loss: Below $4.15
Final Thoughts
With market open coming up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap at the open, which could hint at which way this triangle is about to break. I’m neutral for now but leaning slightly bearish, unless we get a strong push above $4.20.
Let’s see how this plays out—what’s your bias? Breakout up or down?
