Palladium's Seasonal Shifts: Possible Double TopWith Palladium hovering around the $1046 mark, investors are navigating a complex landscape shaped by shifting market dynamics and economic indicators. Employing a seasonal approach akin to our previous analysis on Silver, we observe that Palladium has historically experienced significant declines during this period over the past 15 years. This seasonal pattern, characterized by bearish pressure, prompts a strategic reevaluation of trading setups for the metal.
Notably, Palladium's current price action suggests the formation of a double top pattern, signaling a potential bearish reversal. This technical indicator, coupled with the historical precedent of seasonal declines, serves as a compelling catalyst for initiating bearish setups in the short term. Notably , the Double top formation still on the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
However, it's crucial for investors to adopt a comprehensive approach that spans short to long-term perspectives. While short-term setups may capitalize on imminent bearish signals such as the double top pattern, long-term strategies necessitate a thorough analysis of fundamental factors and broader market trends.
XPDUSD trade ideas
XPDUSD Monumental buy at the bottom of the 6-year Cycle.Palladium (XPDUSD) is in the process of forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as it approaches its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken as a Resistance since the week of October 10 2022. Once the 1W MA50 breaks, we will have a confirmed buy signal, whose first emergence was when the 1W RSI formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows, which is a Bullish Divergence.
We can see that this bottom is on a 6-year Cycle as the previous ones (January 11 2026 and December 01 2008) also took place on a 1W RSI Bullish Divergence forming an IH&S pattern. We expect Palladium to reach at least the 'Russia-Ukraine war peak' at 3450 by late 2025 the earliest or late 2027 the latest.
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Palladium to find buyers at current dip?Palladium - 24h expiry
Selling was posted yesterday but levels close to bespoke support of 1000 have found buyers.
1000.2 has been pivotal.
We look to buy dips.
Daily signals are mildly bullish.
The bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart the positive for sentiment.
We look to Buy at 1005.5 (stop at 985.5)
Our profit targets will be 1055.5 and 1065.5
Resistance: 1032.1 / 1051.4 / 1060.0
Support: 1015.0 / 1000.2 / 984.5
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
XPDUSD - In Sideways TrendXPDUSD chart is printing Sideways Trend.
for trade in 1h time frame, first selected 4h time frame and use Line chart to make Support and Resistance levels with horizontal lines at it's Peak and Low levels.
1st Trade Strategy is doing short from 1st Resistance Level.
Sell Limit: Entry Price at R1 with Stop Loss above at R2.
2nd Trade Strategy is doing long from 1st Support Level.
Buy Limit: Entry Price at 1st Support with Stop Loss below at 2nd Support.
XPDUSD Sell opportunity near the 1D MA200.Palladium (XPDUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 04 2022 High and the recent Feb 13 2024 Low rally is approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is where the last Lower High of the Channel Down was priced (Dec 22 2023), thus a sell opportunity is being presented. On top of that, the 1D RSI just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier.
As a result, we turn bearish on Palladium, targeting just above the Support 1 level at 865.00. We will turn bullish only if the price breaks above Resistance 1 and then pulls back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), targeting 1630 (just below Resistance 2).
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Palladium/Platinum crossover trigger to go LONGPlatinum and palladium are both used in automotive catalytic converter manufacture. Palladium is dropping to the point where it may well cross over the price of palladium.
At this point catalytic converter manufacturers would want to switch from Platinum to Palladium and/or hedge Palladium to protect against future price rise.
Watch for the crossover and then switch to shorter timescale tools to reinforce the buy signal.
This is a long term investment opportunity rather than a quick in and out trade.
As ever, this is opinion only. Do your own research. Never place what you cannot afford to lose.
If you liked this idea please give me a boost.
Good Luck
Goldybug.
xx
Palladium to find buyers at market?Palladium - 24h expiry
Yesterday's Marabuzo is located at 973.
Our short term bias remains positive.
We look for gains to be extended today.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended.
We look to Buy at 973.5 (stop at 953.5)
Our profit targets will be 1023.5 and 1033.5
Resistance: 988.2 / 1000.0 / 1020.0
Support: 980.0 / 965.0 / 950.0
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Possible Palladium Trade OpportunityTVC:PALLADIUM sinking since 2022, fast. The price fell from over $3000 to below $1000. The pain however might end in 2024. The recovering auto sector, jump in manufacturing PMIs and future rate cuts might give TVC:PALLADIUM some breathing room.
ETF holdings of gold, silver and platinum all fell in the last year while the palladium holding rose by %20 and more than %5 of it came in January. Palladium (-54.99) fell much more than its sister Platinum in the last two years (-12.13%) and a possible correction might be in due.
My case for Palladium is positive with the recovery of manufacturing, incoming rate cuts and correction of oversold price. The technical side is still not looking solid though. I decide to risk it becasue of huge increase of ETF Palladium holding in the last months. With 11% risk I expect a jump towards $1500. I will update my stop if price pick up and broke the falling wedge formation.
PALLADIUM - Golden Window Buy 🚀Having had what appears to be a start of trend breakout pump, PALLADIUM has had a violent sell off back down to dip slightly below the 0.618 into the retracement Golden Window.
This is a classic Elliott Wave 2 ratio here and good chance it will bounce from this area.
Reasonable chance this will end up being the retracement bottom.
Notice that the RSI is curling up and could be a clue that a bounce is coming.
In higher time frame PALLADIUM appears to have passed a major bottom and the uptrend is now underway.
My previous buy was at the 1.618 $941 taken from the 2 pivots of distribution.
This is my first offering for TradingView and it should be a good one as this is a deep pull back and PALLADIUM may be beginning a multi year uptrend and perhaps even this area will prove to be a perpetual low.
Not advice.
Palladium : NEXT MOVEHello there,
PALL IDEA.
Big correction since the top (70%).
I can see a Bounce to the two purple resistance. The ABC correction of Elliot waves is done soon.
Furthermore, the target of H&S is done soon.
Buy here and at 860 and 720. Target 1.618 of Fibonnaci, so 4800.
Good luck, bye