XRP/AUD at crucial reaction point - 50% drop or 100% Gain? Background ||
With recent global events wreaking havoc on investors in the crypto sphere; It is not surprising to see similar sentiment from price action in Bluechip pairs. XRP is no exception.
After speculation drove a nice run once USA confirmed a digital asset strategic reserve, key projects such as BTC, XRP, HBAR and XLM benefited with 20-60% gains across the board.
This however was short lived; with large sell off(s) bouncing off key order blocks and resistance areas in the technical space.
In the case of Ripples' XRP, a nice ~40% run was quickly dissolved over the next few days as hype fizzled out and clarifications around what the reserve conditions looked like, came to light. Bulls attempted to tackle the landslide; only to gain minor ground before the next selloff saw us break down again to a developing key area of $3.20.
What does this all mean ||
In the world of technical; traders and investors rely heavily on fundamental drivers (such as new events) to either support, or react to, key technical price areas. Trade probabilities, price targets and setups price(s) are projected based on price action, patterns and areas of interest which are heavily influenced by these global events. this feeds into the bias and sentiment of investors who are driving the price action.
Outlook for XRP ||
At this stage, based on my chart, you can see a well balanced argument for and against buy or sell with XRP. Assuming you are a long term investor, you have a 5-10 year investment horizon; The current price represents a very good discount from ATH (~40% discount) and anyone would be silly not to buy if you believe in the project and have money waiting. regardless of further drop, there is a strong case technically and fundamentally this pair will indeed, continue to grow in value as Ripple becomes institutionally adopted, but more importantly, utilised.
Conversely, if you are a trader, are trying to build your stack through accumulation of already held stock; the landscape is very different. Risk exposure both long ans short are very real.
Bullish argument || Repeated attempts to breach the current level have failed since December last year. Each rejection build the case for bulls to hold the line and investors (both retail and institutional) to pile on one a bullish BoS occurs. Assuming a ChoCH, Bos and 4H PA indicating we have swept the low here, my bias would be to go long and buy again as per the Blue price path
Bearish argument || As per the highlighted Daily H&S which has printed, we have a convincing break down and close into the key reaction area. the current candle has swept lows and is looking to push but could roll over at any time. In this case, im looking for a convincing break below this key area, then a retest of the same area before selling down into the last Daily FVG from our bull run - the November 2024 FVG which sits around the $1.60 mark.
Conclusion || If you're in this for the long run, anywhere from here to $1.60 is a good buy and hold. If you're a trader or accumulator, the next few days will be telling as to the trend and which bias has a higher probability of successful outcome.
My long term outlook is still bullish; as I see value in the utility of the project.
Bull - Look for break above $3.60 and bullish price action to enter. Initial Target $7.00
Bear, look for convincing break below $3.00 and retest to sell bags or enter short to $1.60.
