Back to $4 - XRP weekly update August 7 - 13thXRP is currently advancing within a Minor Wave 3, which forms part of an Intermediate Wave 5 — itself completing a larger Primary Wave 1. This alignment across multiple degrees of trend suggests that XRP may be in the early stages of a broader bullish cycle with meaningful upside potential. The structure of the preceding Intermediate Wave 3 is clearly impulsive, which supports the idea of sustained continuation.
There is, however, some ambiguity in the early part of this current impulse — particularly in the development of Minor Wave 1. This leaves room for an alternative scenario that assumes a more complex correction may still be in progress. This would only be confirmed if the Wave 4 low is breached, thereby invalidating the current impulsive count.
Sentiment and market data currently favour the bullish outlook. Funding rates are positive, showing that the market is leaning long, and open interest is rising, indicating increased trader participation. Furthermore, the liquidity heatmap shows a notable cluster of liquidity above current price, which could serve as a magnet during a third wave — typically the most dynamic part of an impulsive move.
On a broader level, this anticipated momentum could also be fueled by macroeconomic developments. For much of the year, capital inflows into crypto were restricted by the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to lower interest rates. However, that could change soon: according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there’s a 93.6% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September. Markets tend to front-run such events, and this expectation could trigger renewed retail buying — precisely the kind of sentiment shift that often fuels Wave 3 advances.
Importantly, institutional players appear to have already positioned themselves earlier, as evidenced by the formation of order blocks near the end of Wave 2. This suggests that what we’re witnessing now may be retail-driven momentum building on top of smart money accumulation — a classic dynamic in developing third waves.
As long as the current structure remains intact and the Wave 4 low holds, XRP is well-positioned for further upside — with the $3.50–$3.88 zone as a near-term target. The technicals, sentiment, liquidity positioning, and macro backdrop all point in the same direction: higher.
