Updated wave count shows wave D complete.So, I’ve updated my wave count to better align with what has happened, and discovered something I had missed in the process.
What I thought was wave E is probably better explained as a part of wave D, and the recent breakout was the final leg of wave D.
Wave D in a triangle often ends with a breakout attempt, and my anticipation in seeing it earlier but it not being there has now been resolved!
In redrawing it has become clear that wave D has been trading inside a rising wedge, which is now ripe for wave E to drop out of the bottom of it. I had missed this, but price is consolidating at the bottom of the wedge now.
Target for a rising wedge as a continuation pattern is the start of the lower boundary of the wedge, which puts it at $1.98.
However, wave E more often undershoots expectations, as opposed to overshoots them. So my target remains $2.15 - $2.05.
There is the observation of alternating wave characteristics, so if wave D is long and complex, wave E is likely to be short and simple.
The arrow pointing up at the end is what I expect, but that is based on hope. It could be an arrow down and I’d have just as many reasons to explain why it’s pointing down.
So, although the weekly looks as though it’s possibly targeting $1.90 as a weekly ABC, the actual structure of the correction remains a triangle and so wave E undershoot remains keen in my mind.
Just keeping it real, not doing any fudding or owt.
