Crude Oil: WTI Recovers Slightly Above the $70 ZoneSince touching the key support level at $67 , WTI crude oil has posted a notable recovery of more than 7% in recent weeks, and is now hovering slightly above the $70 per barrel mark. For now, the bullish bias remains intact as comments from the White House suggest potential tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on countries that choose to trade Russian oil. According to President Trump, Russia has failed to implement a ceasefire in the short term and this could lead to additional tarrifs. Although this new tariff strategy has no official date, if enacted, it could significantly disrupt global oil supply, reinforcing short-term bullish expectations for crude.
Wide Sideways Range:
For several months now, oil has been moving within a stable sideways range between $81 (resistance) and $67 (support) per barrel. So far, there hasn't been any significant breakout from this channel, making it the dominant structure on the chart in the short term.
MACD:
The MACD histogram continues to oscillate just above the zero line, but recent sessions have shown slight bearish momentum, possibly signaling a pause in the upward movement as the dominance of the moving averages appears to be neutralizing.
TRIX:
A similar situation is developing in the TRIX indicator, with the line hovering just below the neutral 0 level. This suggests that the strength of the 18-period moving average has entered a zone of balance, lacking a clear directional force.
The behavior of both indicators implies that momentum is gradually weakening as the price approaches resistance levels.
Key Levels:
$73: A key resistance level located near the midpoint of the sideways range, also aligning with the 200-period moving average. A breakout above this level could trigger a solid short-term bullish trend.
$81: A distant resistance level marking the top of the current range. Price action reaching this level could be decisive in confirming a long-term bullish breakout.
$67: A significant support level , marking the lower boundary of the range. A return to this level could revive previously dormant bearish pressure and potentially resume a longer-term downtrend that began several weeks ago.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
XTIUSD trade ideas
USOIL Daily Analysis: Bullish Reversal from Key Support USOIL (WTI Crude Oil) daily chart showing price action analysis.
Key Observations:
Support Zone:
A strong demand zone is marked around $65-$66, which has acted as a reversal area in the past.
The price has recently bounced off this zone, indicating potential buyer interest.
Current Price Action:
Price is currently trading at $68.25.
A bullish move started from the support region, with a higher low formation suggesting potential upside momentum.
Potential Scenario:
The chart suggests a pullback before continuation to the upside.
If the support holds, $70-$72 could be the next target.
If price fails to hold above $66, further downside towards $64 may be possible.
Outlook:
Bullish Bias 📈 as long as the price remains above the demand zone.
Watch for a higher low confirmation before entering a long trade.
Breakout above $70 could signal a stronger rally.
USOIL-Sell in the 71.6-72 rangeUSOIL has also experienced a strong uptrend recently, driven by news events. However, as we all know, "what goes up must come down"—even in a one-sided market, technical corrections are inevitable. Right now, we are seeing a perfect opportunity for a pullback-based short trade after the sharp rally.
Trading Recommendation:
📉 Sell in the 71.6-72 range
USOIL:The bullish momentum demonstrates strong performanceRecently, the United States has stepped up its sanctions against Iran. It also made threatening remarks indicating that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement, it will further intensify sanctions against Russia. Such actions have heightened the market's concerns about the future supply side.
Meanwhile, the short-term and phased decline in the United States' domestic oil production, combined with its temporary abstention from taking additional measures to suppress oil prices, has led to a certain increase in the supporting strength of the oil market recently. Yesterday, the upward trend of oil prices continued.
Take a long position at $71.05 for the oil price. Set a stop-loss of 30 basis points and a take-profit at $72.70.
Trading Strategy:
buy@70.8-71.05
TP:72.20-72.50
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Oil and Gas Markets: Price Pressures and Future OutlookPYTH:WTI3! ICEEUR:BRN1! NYMEX:RB1! FXOPEN:XNGUSD
Market Overview: Supply, Demand, and Geopolitical Factors
The oil and gas markets continue to experience significant volatility, driven by a combination of seasonal trends, production adjustments, and geopolitical developments. U.S. natural gas storage has decreased due to seasonal withdrawals, though inventories remain above the five-year average. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have struggled to find momentum, weighed down by concerns over demand growth and economic uncertainty.
Global oil production has remained relatively stable, but market participants are closely monitoring potential disruptions. OPEC+ has maintained its commitment to output restrictions, aiming to support prices amid fluctuating demand. However, recent indications from major producers suggest potential shifts in supply strategies, particularly in response to changes in global consumption patterns.
Price Trends and Market Pressures
Oil prices have faced downward pressure, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recently trading below $70 per barrel. Concerns over slowing demand, particularly in key economies like China and the Eurozone, have contributed to this decline. Additionally, rising interest rates in the United States have dampened economic activity, potentially reducing fuel consumption in the long term.
Natural gas prices have also been volatile, reflecting shifts in supply and demand dynamics. While storage levels remain elevated compared to historical averages, colder-than-expected weather in certain regions has led to temporary price spikes. However, recent price movements indicate a broader downward trend, as fundamental supply-demand balances exert pressure on valuations. The price of the F26, which reached $5.9 two weeks ago, has since declined to $5.3, with further movement toward approximately $4.8 anticipated based on current market conditions. These dynamics reflect the ongoing adjustments in global gas markets amid changing consumption patterns and seasonal fluctuations.
Corporate Performance
The impact of these price movements has been felt unevenly across the oil and gas sector. Major integrated energy companies have managed to maintain profitability due to diversified revenue streams, while smaller, more vulnerable producers have faced greater challenges. Refining margins have fluctuated, with some refiners benefiting from lower crude prices while others struggle with narrowing spreads.
Companies with strong exposure to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have seen continued demand, particularly in Europe and Asia, where energy security remains a priority. However, firms heavily reliant on upstream oil production have encountered profit pressures as crude prices remain subdued. The resilience of oilfield service providers has also been tested, with cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements becoming necessary for a sustainable existence.
Risks and Future Outlook
The outlook for oil and gas markets remains uncertain, with multiple risk factors at play. Potential production policy changes by OPEC+, geopolitical tensions in key producing regions, and ongoing economic uncertainties all contribute to an unpredictable pricing environment. Additionally, regulatory shifts and climate policies could further impact the long-term trajectory of fossil fuel demand.
While short-term volatility may deter some, long-term structural changes in energy consumption and supply dynamics will shape future investment strategies. As global economies navigate inflationary pressures and evolving energy policies, oil and gas markets will continue to adjust, presenting both risks and rewards for market participants.
USOIL - Bracketing A Breakout Opportunity As traders we want to be predictive in our analysis and reactive in our execution. And there is no easier way to follow through with this concept then on a bracketed breakout trading opportunity.
Oil has recently been on a short-term bullish run which has ended with price entering a period of consolidation. Consolidation leads to expansion so I do expect a future breakout to occur.
The question however is in which direction. If I knew the answer I would bet everything I have including the house and the kids on it but unfortunately I don't. (and my wife would kill me).
What I do know, is that there's a good chance that the market will give us a clue of what direction it wants to continue in and that's what I'm waiting for with this trading opportunity.
If you have any questions or comments please leave them below & be sure to show some love by hitting that LIKE button before you go.
Akil
WTI OIL Approaching a potential rejection level.Our last short-term analysis (March 18, see chart below) on WTI Oil (USOIL) hit the $70.00 Target and is currently extending the uptrend:
We believe however that this uptrend may be coming to a temporary end as not only does it approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) that has been intact since February 03, but also the 73.40 Symmetrical Resistance that kick started the -7.70% September 24 2024 rejection.
As you can this this is also where the 1D RSI 67.00 Resistance is, which has also caused 2 rejections.
Based on that, we will wait for a short on the 1D MA200 to target $68.00.
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Oil - Expecting The Price To Bounce Higher FurtherH1 - Price has created series of higher highs, higher lows structure
Strong bullish momentum
Higher highs based on the moving averages of the MACD indicator
Expecting retraces and further continuation higher until the two strong support zones hold.
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XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil) – Market Analysis (23rd March 2025)XTIUSD (WTI Crude Oil)
Timeframe: 4H
1. Mak Method
Price recently broke above the descending trendline, indicating a potential bullish shift.
Key 369 Level: Price is hovering around $68.61, aligning with my levels.
If price maintains above $67.50, we could see continued bullish movement.
2. Fibonacci, Gann Levels & Elliott Wave
Fibonacci Retracement:
61.8% level at $72.50, making it a critical upside target.
Gann Levels:
Major support at $66.00, which aligns with institutional buying zones.
Elliott Wave Count:
Potential Wave 3 underway, with a break above $70 confirming bullish momentum.
3. Key Technical Levels (Support & Resistance)
Support Levels:
$67.50 - $66.00 → Strong demand zone, potential bullish retest.
$61.50 - $60.00 → Major institutional support (if breakdown occurs).
Resistance Levels:
$69.50 - $70.00 → Short-term resistance, possible liquidity grab.
$72.50 - $75.00 → Next bullish target, aligning with Fibonacci & order blocks.
4. Probable Scenarios with Probability %
Scenario Probability
Bullish Breakout: Retest of $67.50, then continuation to $70-$72.50. 65%
Fake Breakout & Rejection: Price rejects $69.50 and retraces to $66.00. 25%
Bearish Breakdown: Failure to hold $66.00, leading to a drop to $61.50-$60.00. 10%
5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
Bias: Bullish above $67.50, bearish below $66.00.
Entry Areas:
Long Entry → Retest of $67.50 with confirmation.
Short Entry → Breakdown below $66.00, targeting $61.50.
Stop Loss:
Long trades → Below $65.80.
Short trades → Above $70.50.
Final Thoughts:
Watch for false breakouts at $69.50 before confirming bullish moves.
If price consolidates above $68.50 - $69.00, we could see a rally toward $72.50 - $75.00.
Volume Confirmation: Institutional buying at $67.50 could trigger a strong bullish move.
USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 71.913.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 73.911.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Oil – Shorts Getting Squeezed But How Far Can it Run?After trading between $65-70 for much of March as fears of a slowdown in the global economy would lead to reduced demand, Oil prices popped 3% yesterday to close at 71.50 and have initially nudged higher again today.
The catalyst for the recent move that led to this spike, unsurprisingly, were comments from President Trump. Yes, he seems to be moving all markets right now!
His weekend comments which suggested he was getting fed up with Putin dragging his feet on a Ukraine ceasefire, adding the US may work to restrict Russian crude shipments and consider secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian Oil, were enough for traders to reduce weak short positions, as this could impact Oil supplies, if it were to become a reality.
Add to that, yesterday’s positive news from China, the world’s biggest Oil importer, that showed manufacturing activity in the country expanded at a faster pace for the year to March, and you can see why prices have bounced in the short term.
However, can this move continue?
It could all depend on how aggressive President Trump and his team are tomorrow when they unveil the next wave of reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, in what President Trump has labelled ‘Liberation Day’.
Current expectations are for these new tariffs to impact all countries, but the size of the penalties is unclear, as are the size of retaliatory measures from China, Canada, EU and the rest of the world for that measure.
The worst ‘Liberation Day’ outcome could see Oil traders focus on a global recession and a potential drop in Oil demand, which could see prices fall from current levels, while anything else could see Oil prices continue to fluctuate depending on what it means for global trade and for the economies of specific Oil importing nations like China.
Technical Picture:
It was an extended phase of weakness in Oil prices from the January 15th, 2025, high at 81.01 into the March 5th, 2025, low at 65.25, a decline of 19.45%, which took prices to levels last seen in May 2023.
Subsequently, while a price recovery has materialised, it is only until recently that a more sustained period of strength looks to be developing, and only yesterday the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January/March weakness, which stood at 71.29, was challenged.
In fact, with signs emerging that traders with short positions are reverting to the sidelines and ‘covering positions’ ahead whatever tomorrow’s tariff announcements bring, this 71.29 resistance level gave way on a closing basis.
A close above a Fibonacci retracement resistance is not a guarantee of a more prolonged phase of recovery in price, especially when we have such significant news about to hit traders’ screens, but it does suggest scope to higher levels in price are still possible.
Next Resistance:
A break above a 38.2% retracement resistance level can open potential for a more extended phase of price strength and traders may now be focusing on 73.15/16 as the next resistance within current strength. This represents the February 20th 2025 high in price, from which fresh selling was recently seen to post new price lows and the higher 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Next Support:
Of course, it is equally possible any reaction to the up-and-coming tariff announcement could be negative for Oil, in which case it is important to consider what are the levels that if broken to the downside within any extended phase of weakness, might again suggest increasing downside pressure in the price of Oil.
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest March strength stands at 70.36, with possibilities that if any fresh weakness sees this level give way on a closing basis, might indicate it is the oil bears are gaining a foothold once more, to expose a deeper price decline and retracement of March strength.
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Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71
Brent crude oil is trading above $71 per barrel today, marking its highest level since late February. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price surged by approximately 2.6% on the last day of March.
Why Has Oil Risen?
Bullish sentiment in the market is driven by the US President’s stance on Russia and Iran. According to Trading Economics:
➝ Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of 25–50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. This could put pressure on key importers such as India and China.
➝ He has also threatened Iran with further tariffs and airstrikes until the country agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons programme.
The rise in Brent crude prices appears to reflect traders’ concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supply chains.
Technical Analysis of XBR/USD
In early March, oil formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern (see the lows on 5 and 11 March), followed by an upward trend within a rising channel (marked in blue).
Notably, the XBR/USD chart shows that the price:
➝ Has moved into the upper half of the channel.
➝ Broke through key resistance at around $70.25, a level that previously acted as support multiple times (as indicated by the arrows).
As a result, the median of the channel, reinforced by the $70.25 level, may now serve as support, keeping Brent crude within the blue channel. However, market direction will likely depend on the news cycle, particularly sharp statements from the White House.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WTI Oil H4 | Falling to pullback supportWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 71.06 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 69.80 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 72.94 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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USOil Key Resistance Hit: Is WTI Crude Due for a Correction?WTI crude oil appears overextended after a strong bullish rally, trading into a key resistance level amid heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility. The current price action suggests a potential retracement, with equilibrium around the 50% Fibonacci level being a likely target for correction 📉. Given the reactionary nature of the market, traders should remain cautious as political developments could drive further instability ⚠️. While the technical setup supports a pullback, external factors may disrupt this scenario, so risk management is essential. 📊
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
USOIL My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 68.97
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 69.31
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long USOIL: Targeting $70.20 Amid Bullish MomentumThe price of USOIL has recently bounced off a key support level, confirming a successful retest of the previous demand zone. The support level aligns with a significant price reaction area, reinforcing its strength. Additionally, the MACD indicator is showing a bullish crossover, signaling a potential upward momentum shift. Volume analysis indicates increased buying activity near the support zone, suggesting strong participation from buyers. Given these technical factors, a long position with a target of 70.2 is supported by confluence from multiple indicators and price action confirmation.