XTIUSD trade ideas
WTI on course towards 30$I assume that the WTI bulls will have nothing to laugh about for the foreseeable future and that the price will more than halve before anything changes.
OIL Weakness (RECESSION)Oil is showing significant weakness, for the past 8 years price was trading within this channel (the blue lines) it broke down during covid and up during the russian invasion, but now with all the significant events and geopolitical instability, price broke down and couldn't recapture it, as it acted as resistance, if oil fails and close a weekly candle below 65$, expect 50$ then 30$ then 17$ which means the worse.
We're most likely in a recession
WTI Long Bullish momentumWTI Long
Broke out of descending channel. Retrace into channel top/FVG.
Ready to continue price upwards to fill volume gap on the 4H chart.
WTI OIL Strong buy signal on the 0.618 FibWTI Oil (USOIL) gave us the best of sell signals on our last analysis (October 08, see chart below) as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) initiated a strong decline that hit our 72.50 Target:
The decline broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and even reached yesterday the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the similar Channel Up fractal of early 2024 was the level where the Higher Low was priced, bottomed and started the next Bullish Leg.
The presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since the September 28 2023 High however, doesn't give us much upside room for a great rally, so we will turn bullish again but only for the short-term, targeting 78.50.
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Seeing a possible buy in USOil A simple break and RETEST. Well I say this will be a 50/50 cause USOIL is volatile, it might stop me out and go to the same direction, what are your thoughts?
Oil Oversold? Middle East Risks Remain Oil Oversold? Middle East Risks Remain
Oil prices are cooling off as concerns over the nature and scale of Israel’s retaliation to Iran become known. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated to the Biden administration that they will be targeting military rather than oil nor nuclear facilities.
Israel could be keeping oil-related targets as a last resort, depending on how Iran responds to any military strikes.
Iran accounts for around 4% of global oil production. However, Iran’s production isn’t the only worry. Broader concerns over regional stability, particularly involving the Strait of Hormuz, should continue to weigh heavily on energy markets. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil, and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG), passes through the strait that is bordered by Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
If the price fails to hold the $70 support, WTI could slide toward the next support zone of at $66.90, the low from October, and $65.50, a level not seen since September.
USOIL - 0.618 fibonnaci zoneUSOIl trading near 0.618 golden zone on daily time frame
Also on 15 min time frame a bullish pattern (W pattern) is formed which gives sign for upside movement.
This chart is only for educational purpose. Please do your own study before taking any trades
USOIL: Bullish Fundamentals and 61.60% Probability for LongsKey Fundamentals
- Decreased OPEC Exports: Recent reports indicate a decline in crude oil exports from OPEC and Russia, tightening the market as refinery runs ramp up for seasonal demand. This reduction in supply is likely to exert upward pressure on prices2.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, continue to add a risk premium to oil prices. Traders are increasingly factoring these uncertainties into their market strategies2.
- Rising Demand: With the U.S. economy showing signs of recovery and better-than-expected market fundamentals, demand for oil is anticipated to rise, further supporting higher prices12.
- Technical Indicators: Current market sentiment shows USOIL trading above its pivot point of $74.80, with support levels around $74.00. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56.16, indicating a healthy trend without being overbought1.
I'm employing a probability-based strategy to position myself for long trades in USOIL.
By incorporating these fundamentals and probability analysis into my trading approach, I aim to leverage the current bullish sentiment in USOIL effectively.
12M:
2W:
Hourly TFs:
USOILUSOIL is in reversal mode
bullish divergence making now.
we wait and watch for the more confirmation.
If it will break the last HH then we enter .
Why Accumulation Signals a Bullish Future for USOILH ello,
Per the green dotted lines, large players seem to accumulate USOIL. The rising volume data on the bottom chart backs this claim.
The price action resolves within a falling channel. This kind of channel usually breaks upwards. The combination of the bullish channel and the accumulative sentiment signals a bullish future for USOIL.
The same approach was profitable in 2022 and formed a successful trade until July 2022. Unless USOIL breaks the green support zone downward, I expect a bullish outcome in the upcoming long position.
Regards,
Ely
Will WTI Recover From Heavy Selling?That was a big bang in the oil. However, in view of the fragile geopolitical situation, it remains questionable whether the price losses are sustainable. We expect WTI to return to around USD 73.80 and are therefore opening a long position with an RRR of around 1.7:1.
Buy USOIL, Close At 72.4/72.7 Range
Affected by the news, oil prices fell sharply, we can take the opportunity to trade the rebound market, closing in the 72.4/72.7 area
Crude oil slumpsYesterday saw a fairly dramatic reversal in crude oil as prices plunged. That sell-off continued this morning with front-month WTI back below $70 per barrel. On Friday it was trading comfortably above $75. While this was some way short of the $78 hit at the beginning of last week, it looked as if crude may be backfilling and consolidating after a sharp bullish run since the beginning of the month. The rally began in early September when oil prices were looking extremely oversold. They subsequently bounced, triggered by an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Then followed a brief pullback. Then Iran launched close to 200 missiles at Israel, and fears grew that Israel would respond by targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, or even its nuclear facilities. Those fears have subsided, and now trade looks back to normal, with the focus returning to the outlook for global demand growth. OPEC’s latest analysis has downgraded its forecast for Chinese demand for the third consecutive month. This follows on from last week’s update from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This said that the market should expect falling demand growth from both China and the US, due to weaker manufacturing growth and industrial production from both countries.
USOIL "WTI crude oil" Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish Side.Bonjour! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
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USOIL Short-Term Ad-Hoc Idea (Short)This is an ad-hoc follow-up to my previous idea on the USOIL Long which was successfully resolved.
Bears are looking for reaching 69.96-70.20 area here. Let's see how it unfolds.
USOIL... just near to his supporting area? what's next??#USOIL.. perfect move as per our last idea and now market just reached near to his major supporting area and that will play key role in next move.
keep close that region mentioned on chart. that is around 69.60 to 69.90
keep close and if market hold it in that case you can see again bounce from that area otherwise not at all.
don't float your buying's below that.
good luck
trade wisely
[OIL] History rhymes in the making ?TVC:USOIL has been able to climb up despite the volatility that came with it. Today's price action is quite interesting as it quite similar to last February fractals.
The task for the price will be hold the price and make a bounce...a morning star pattern, or doji maybe ?
See how this interesting setup played out.
Cherio...
USOIL H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 72.85, which is a pullback resistance.
Our take profit will be at 69.94, an overlap support level close to 127.2& Fibo extension
The stop loss will be at 75.84, a multi-swing high resistance level.
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US CRUDE OIL (WTI): Peculiar Pattern! Do You See It?USOIL has formed a cup and handle pattern at a key resistance level, with the market now testing the neckline.
A break and close below this level could signal a bearish reversal, with sellers aiming for a target of 68.93.
To confirm a breakout, a 4-hour candle close below the neckline is needed.
WTI Might Continue Its Bullish TrendThe price of WTI stabilized during the recent corrector in the area of the 61.8% retracement of the upward movement between 9 and 10 October 2024. The reaction was clean, so it is reasonable to conclude that the price respects the mark.
Against this backdrop, we are opening a long position with an extremely favorable RRR of around 3.2:1.
1W ChoCh Sell Just Beginning1W ChoCh Sell Just Beginning last low $0 in 2020 Possible Take profit it's make 3 Waves Higher Low But have strong Support in Blue order box It's need Clearly.
