High Volatility in Crude Oil: Geopolitical FactorsVolatility in the oil market has intensified during the week’s close, with crude futures registering significant declines that practically erase the accumulated gains of the week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, experienced a near 2.2% drop, driven mainly by geopolitical factors and supply data that have surprised to the downside. In particular, pressure from the U.S. administration on the Iraqi government to restart Kurdish crude exports to Turkey has been one of the most relevant catalysts, creating uncertainty in supply flows.
Data released by the Energy Information Administration reinforce the bearish movements. The increase of 4.6 million barrels in crude inventories suggests a weaker-than-expected domestic demand, which further pressures prices downward. However, not all is pessimism: gasoline stocks fell by 0.2 million barrels and distillates declined by 2.1 million barrels, which could temporarily support the value of these refined products.
On the geopolitical front, the pressure exerted by Washington to reactivate the pipeline connecting Kurdish fields with Turkey and curb smuggling into Iran marks a new chapter in the U.S. “maximum pressure” policy against Tehran. Although the Iraqi Oil Minister announced the resumption of Kurdish exports in the coming days, there is still uncertainty regarding technical and financial hurdles that could delay its implementation. An immediate rebound in supply from these blocked barrels would pressure prices downward; however, any political setback or stalled peace negotiations in other key regions could trigger a bounce.
In summary, the oil outlook continues to be characterized by high volatility, reflecting the constant interplay of supply and demand data as well as geopolitical tensions.
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