XTIUSD trade ideas
Energy is life: tailwind for the global economy?Oil prices in gold in a clear down trend, presumably on the back of increased shale production and greater renewables, and resurgence of nuclear. Unless demand accelerates (AI? middle class growth in India?), this is very supportive of economic growth.
WTI Oil H4 | Rising into a swing-high resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 59.71 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 62.30 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 55.10 which is a swing-low support.
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Triangle in oil, OPEC+ decision = gap down on Monday? 🛢️☕ #OilNotCoffee | 📐 #TECHANALYSIS
📉 Oil appears to have formed a triangle in wave 4 and is poised for a major gap down on Monday, driven by OPEC+’s decision to accelerate production increases beyond initial plans.
Position:
▫️ Entered the weekend with short positions near peak exposure.
▫️ Critical level marked by the 100% red line.
▫️ Scenario suggests WTI prices won’t drop below $50 immediately—wave completion within the highlighted range may lead to an extended sideways phase.
Strategy Status:
▫️ This scenario has been executed successfully for an extended period.
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USOIL What Next? BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USOIL and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 58.35 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 60.83
Safe Stop Loss - 57.06
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Crude Oil's Bearish Trend Continues: Intraday Trading StrategiesDuring the US trading session on Monday, crude oil recovered part of the losses from the sharp decline at the opening of this week. Previously, OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production again, causing crude oil to continue the bearish trend that has been gradually taking shape since March.
Today, the price of crude oil first rose and then fell. After hitting a new low, the upward trend continued, but when it reached around $57.7, it encountered significant resistance. Looking ahead, it is expected that crude oil will experience an oscillation phase first, and then continue its downward trend.
Currently, crude oil is still in a bear - dominated trend. For intraday trading strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies and use buying on dips as a secondary approach. Pay close attention to the resistance range of $57.7 - $58.5 on the upside and the support range of $55.5 - $54.0 on the downside.
USOIL
sell@57.30-57.50
tp:56.50-56.00
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USOIL What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 60.99
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 58.63
My Stop Loss - 62.11
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Due to the expectation that the China-US trade war has peaked, the oil price is expected to continue its rebound momentum and break through the level of $60 per barrel. However, the uncertainties of trade negotiations and the supply potential of Iran pose a dual pressure. In the short term, the fluctuations of the oil price will be more dominated by geopolitical factors and inventory dynamics. In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to mainly go short on rebounds. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance at 61.0 above, and the support at 58.0 below.
Trading Strategy:
sell@61-60
TP:58.5-58
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US-Oil will further push upside After Testing TrendlineAt present, the price of crude oil is above the key technical level, and the geopolitical sentiment has also become more favorable, so the short-term outlook for crude oil is bullish. If the upcoming Sino-US meeting leads to a relaxation of trade tensions, the upward momentum is likely to accelerate. Unless OPEC+ unexpectedly increases the supply, the target for the next few trading days may be set at $63 and higher. Crude oil opened lower this week and then rebounded. The weekly candlestick closed as a large positive candlestick, approaching the resistance of the 5-week moving average. On the daily chart, after the second pullback, the price rebounded upwards without breaking the low point. $64.80 is a key watershed. Below this level, there is still a possibility of a bearish trend. In the short term, the trend is bullish. Overall, it is expected to rise first and then fall next week. Pay attention to the resistance at $63.50 and go short, and set the stop-loss with the position of $64.80 for a bearish outlook.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
USOILCurrent USOIL Price Drop (May 2025)
WTI crude oil (USOIL) has declined sharply in early May 2025, Key drivers include:
OPEC+ Surprise Supply Increase: OPEC+ announced plans to raise output in June, reversing earlier production cuts and flooding the market with additional barrels.
Tariff-Driven Demand Fears: U.S.-China trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs threaten global economic growth, reducing oil demand forecasts.
Dollar Strength: The U.S. dollar (DXY) has rebounded due to delayed Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand, pressuring dollar-denominated oil prices.
EIA/Goldman Sachs Forecasts: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Goldman Sachs revised 2025–2026 oil price forecasts downward, citing oversupply risks and weaker demand.
Shifting Dollar-Oil Correlation
Historically, oil and the dollar were inversely correlated (strong dollar = lower oil prices). However, this relationship is weakening due to:
U.S. as a Net Oil Exporter: The U.S. is now the world’s largest crude producer. Higher oil prices improve the U.S. trade balance (vs. worsening it when the U.S. was a net importer).
Petrodollar Dynamics: As the U.S. exports more oil, revenue from oil sales strengthens the dollar, creating a positive correlation in certain scenarios.
Geopolitical and Policy Shocks: Tariffs, OPEC+ decisions, and Fed policy now dominate price action, overshadowing traditional correlations.
Future Directional Bias
Bearish Factors
OPEC+ Supply Surge: Increased production (post-June 2025) could push prices toward $50–$55/barrel (Goldman Sachs base case).
Recession Risks: Weak demand from China/Europe and U.S. tariff impacts may trigger a global slowdown, further depressing oil prices.
Dollar Strength: Fed rate cuts delayed until July 2025 or later could sustain dollar strength, capping oil’s upside.
Bullish Catalysts
Supply Disruptions: Escalating Middle East tensions or OPEC+ policy reversals could tighten supply.
Weaker Dollar: If the Fed signals rate cuts or tariffs ease, dollar weakness could lift oil prices.
Outlook:
USOIL faces downside risks in the near term due to oversupply and demand concern
Exogenous Shocks: Exogenous shocks to the U.S. real interest rate can cause a modest and short-lived decline in the real price of oil. Although there is a higher opportunity cost of holding inventories, oil inventories may increase, reflecting the decline in global real activity associated with higher U.S. real interest rate
USOIL trading opportunities.After the "OPEC+ continued to increase production" on Monday, USOIL continued to fall to a four-year low near 55. However, it rebounded after opening low on Monday. It continued on Tuesday. Is it no longer able to fall?
Ludvig believes that it will continue to fall. Because the decline is caused by the growth of production capacity. The rise is caused by geopolitical strategic reserve materials. One of these two directly affects the trend of OIL, and the other indirectly.
The trend of economic data API/EAI will continue to be released. If the geopolitical weakening situation, the oil price data released is roughly negative, so it will continue to fall. But if the impact of geopolitics intensifies, this is a positive factor.
So the current trading direction that can be determined is to continue to short.
In terms of trading, traders with large funds can sell at the current price, and those with small funds can wait until the market returns to above 59 to sell.
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Oil on high time frame
"Regarding WTI oil, the price trend on high time frames is bearish, especially on the daily chart. After completing its pullback on the 4-hour chart, there are indications of further downside potential.
The market's volatility may be influenced by geopolitical tensions and political factors between Iran and the USA, as well as tariff issues. Despite these fluctuations, candle formations suggest the potential for prices to drop towards the $58 zone."
If you require more assistance or have any specific questions, feel free to ask!
What do silver and oil have in common? Price.Since 1861, silver and crude oil charts have trended together rather well.
So, if you think there is a "cartel" which manipulates the silver, there must also be manipulating crude oil.
Or, the more logical explanation is that capital flows are carving out these price charts.
Oil to soon hit below $50.0Please ignore that Asia BOX. Besides that oil is coming further down. but trying to fine tune my entry and exit setup. For me this would be a nice good grade setup cuz of L mapping. I think its got more downside to fall. Hope its not too greedy to set that huge of TP but you never know with commodities and expectations run outside of the reality as bigger the TF more inaccurate you shall be.
USOIL BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 63.13
Target Level: 61.78
Stop Loss: 64.03
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Can it hit the bottom and rebound?Fundamental Analysis: Driven by the trade concerns sparked by Trump and the risk aversion sentiment arising from the global economic slowdown, the trajectory of oil prices has been shaped. Additionally, OPEC+ convened an early meeting on Saturday and confirmed an increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day in June. This decision has indubitably intensified the market's apprehensions regarding the oversupply of crude oil 📉.
Technical Analysis: Technically speaking, the price of crude oil has persistently lingered below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, distinctly indicating that the bearish trend is in the ascendancy 📉. Last week, on the weekly chart, it closed with a substantial bearish candlestick, exhibiting a downward tail pattern, and in the short term, the price has been fluctuating within a trading range 📊. As for the upcoming week's trend, whether the support level established by the previous double doji bottoming formation will be broken through effectively will be the focal point of market attention 👀. Nevertheless, once the price reaches the crucial support level, there exists the potential for a technical rebound. Investors should closely monitor the variations in trading volume and the response of the moving average system 📈.
Market Situation: It is crucial to note that due to the holiday factor in the Asian market next Monday, market liquidity is anticipated to decline significantly. Under such circumstances, the oil price is likely to encounter a higher risk of more pronounced volatility, further escalating the uncertainty of the market situation ⚠️.
⚡⚡⚡ USOIL ⚡⚡⚡
🚀 Buy@56.0 - 57.0
🚀 TP 59.0 - 60.0
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USOIL Today's strategyFrom a technical perspective, if USOIL can take advantage of the weakening of the DXY, stabilize and rebound near the current price, and break through the key resistance level, it may be able to form an upward trend. However, if it fails to effectively withstand the impact of the production increase by OPEC+, and breaks below the key support level, the price is likely to decline further.
Currently, it is necessary to closely monitor the competition around the price level of $55. If this level can be held, the probability of a rebound will increase. Once it is broken, the next support level may be around the $53 area. At the same time, continuously tracking the trend of the DXY and the subsequent policy dynamics of OPEC+ is of vital importance for judging the future trend of USOIL.
USOIL
buy@55-56
tp:57.5-58.5
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