USOIL ShortUSOIL is now net short on the regression break.
The roll short is (-1.7%) roll on the front month.
I am not taking this trade.
XTIUSD trade ideas
WTI Is Madness Right NowOil impresses with insane movements. Today, the price lost almost 16 % of its value within one day. Time to speculate on a small countermovement - we are hopelessly oversold!
WTI Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025
WTI: ⬇️ Sell
- WTI reversed from the resistance area
- Likely to fall to support level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed down from the resistance area located between the pivotal resistance level 76.45 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of last year), the upper weekly Bollinger Band and the resistance trendline of the weekly down channel from 2024.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the C-wave of the earlier weekly ABC correction (4) from April.
Given the clear weekly downtrend, WTI crude oil can be expected to fall to the next support level 65.00 (a former yearly low from 2024).
Crude Oil Trade Setup – Macro Narrative Aligned | WaverVanir DSS📍Instrument: WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)
📊Timeframe: 15M | Methodology: Smart Money Concepts + Fibonacci + Volume Profile + ORB
🔍Framework: VolanX DSS | WaverVanir International LLC
📈 Trade Thesis
While much of the world remains fixated on short-term rate expectations and gold/oil volatility, this chart reflects clear SMC structure aligned with the macro backdrop:
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and strategic energy hoarding by global players continue to apply pressure to oil supply narratives.
Inventories remain tight while BRICS+ nations move toward commodity-backed currency talks—oil being the anchor.
The Fed’s neutral stance combined with softening global PMIs points to a fragile growth phase, supporting rebalancing trades into tangible assets like oil.
🧠 Technical Breakdown
Premium/Discount Model in Play:
Current price retraced after rejecting the premium zone at 77.10 with strong bearish volume and confluence at the 1.0 Fib level.
Buy Zone 1:
Around 75.26, near 0.618 retracement—ideal for short-term scalpers with tight invalidation.
Buy Zone 2:
74.18–73.85 marked as Discount OB zone + ORB LOD + VWAP deviation.
Liquidity engineered below BOS—favorable risk-reward for swing re-entry.
Volume Spike Confirmation near 73.90 during London session sweep = high-probability demand.
🧭 Trade Plan
✅ Entry #1: 75.26 – Speculative order flow entry
✅ Entry #2: 74.18 – Confirmed bullish OB zone
🛑 SL: Below 73.70 (invalidates BOS reclaim + OB)
🎯 TP: 77.10 (weak high) and partials at 76.00–76.50
⚠️ Trailing stop after reclaiming 75.70
🧠 Narrative Alignment
As the world shifts toward resource realism, oil becomes more than a trade—it's a proxy for power, policy, and protectionism. This isn’t just a chart—it's a window into the realignment of global influence.
📌 Volatility will be harvested. Order will emerge from imbalance.
—
#CrudeOil #SmartMoneyConcepts #WTI #MacroTrading #WaverVanir #VolanX #OrderFlow #EnergyMarkets #BRICS #FibonacciStrategy #LiquiditySweep #TradingView #TraderMindset
Crude Oil Declines After $78.00 Rejection: Eyes on ReboundFenzoFx—Oil is declining after being rejected from $78.00, heading toward key support at $73.86—an area backed by high volume and demand.
If $73.86 holds, a bullish move toward $78.00 and potentially $82.00 could follow.
Trump’s “ambiguous” statement, where will oil prices go?
💡Message Strategy
Trump's remarks are repeated, and the geopolitical premium still limits the downward space of oil prices
Trump said that the United States "may or may not" join Israel's actions against Iran. Analysts pointed out that if the United States is officially involved in the conflict, oil prices may rise by $5; if peace talks are launched, they may fall by the same amount.
The geopolitical focus is still on the Strait of Hormuz
Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, but more importantly, about 19 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of the conflict may threaten the safety of the waterway.
The Fed's policy turn to dovish failed to effectively support oil prices
Although the Fed hinted that it may cut interest rates twice this year, Chairman Powell emphasized that the decision still depends on inflation data, and Trump's upcoming new round of import tariffs may push up prices and limit the boost in oil demand brought about by loose policies.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil prices in the medium term broke through the upper resistance of the range and tested a new high of 75.50. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend is in the direction.
The current trend is in the upward rhythm of the main trend. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines overlap with the bullish column above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full, and it is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a wave of rising rhythm.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:73.00-73.50，SL：72.50
The first target is around 75.50
The second target is around 76.50
If the situation in the Middle East escalates, the room for crude oil to rise will be enlarged
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to 1. Technical Support at the $74 Safety Cushion
Current prices sit squarely in the $74-$78 trading range, with $74 acting as a proven safety cushion—history shows prices rebounding each time they test this level. The $75.03 dip is a hair's breadth from this buffer, testing its resilience.
2. Why the Pullback?
- **Geopolitical Fatigue**: Markets are shrugging off Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade threats, like crying wolf too often.
- **OPEC+ Supply Jitters**: Despite Saudi Arabia potentially limiting exports due to domestic power demand, the group's production hike announcement has fueled oversupply concerns.
3. Underlying Tensions Remain
Iran's rhetoric may be empty so far, but the standoff resembles two foes clutching weapons mid-argument—any escalation could send prices surging. This dip likely reflects market indecision, as traders await the first move.
4. Trading Strategies for Different Styles
- **Aggressive Traders**:
Consider light long positions near $75, like resting your foot on the gas before a stoplight turns green. Set stop-loss below $74 (breaching the safety cushion signals a trend shift) and target $78 initially, eyeing higher levels on a breakout.
- **Conservative Traders**:
Stick to range trading: buy near $74-$75 and sell around $77-$78, like cruising on a flat road for steady gains. Keep position sizes small and take profits promptly.
5. Key Watchout: Strait of Hormuz Realities
Monitor for concrete disruptions—oil tanker attacks or navigation system glitches would confirm the "wolf has arrived." Adjust positions decisively based on pre-set plans: add to longs on threats, or cut losses if diplomacy defuses tensions.
The market resembles a ship in choppy waters—opportunities and risks coexist. Stay vigilant and flexible, like a driver scanning the road ahead while ready to brake or steer. In this game, survival outpaces quick profits.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL buy@74~74.5
SL:73
TP1:75.5~76.5
TP2:77~78
WTI Short PositionBelieve stability within the Middle East market will bring the price down so it could rebound back up once liquidity has been cleared
Crude Oil Market Trend Forecast for Next WeekThe oil price continued its upward trend this week, despite a brief correction on Friday. As of Friday's Asian session, Brent crude oil futures dropped by $1.57, or 2%, to $77.28 per barrel. However, the cumulative weekly gain reached 3.9%, marking three consecutive weekly increases. Geopolitical risks continued to fuel market sentiment. Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Thursday after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear targets, following Iran's missile strikes on Israel after its earlier missile attack on an Israeli hospital. The focus of the current crude oil market has shifted entirely from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. Although Iran's crude oil exports have not been substantially disrupted, investors have started to price in the worst-case scenario. If the situation further deteriorates and affects shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices may face a new round of sharp volatility.
In the short term, oil prices still exhibit upward potential, with the current trend maintaining an overall upward trajectory. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines overlap with bullish bars above the zero axis, signaling robust bullish momentum. This suggests that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in an upward rally.
you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:75.0-75.5
Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars Sharply Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars Sharply
(1) Strait of Hormuz: Global Energy Artery in Crisis
As the gateway for 20% of global crude oil transportation, every disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz grips market nerves. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has now deployed missile boats and mine-laying vessels at the strait's narrowest point (just 33 km). The UK Maritime Security Agency warns that Iran may adopt a "gradual blockade"—first causing shipping chaos through electronic jamming, then escalating to mine blockades.
Historical experience shows that even partial blockades can drive tanker insurance premiums up by over 900% and increase transportation costs by 50-100%. Current ultra-large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates have risen 22% from last month, with many shipping companies evaluating routes around the Cape of Good Hope, which would extend Asian crude oil arrival times by 15-20 days.
(2) Supply Side: Production Increase Plans Meet Geopolitical Storm
Although OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production by 411,000 bpd in July, market focus has fully shifted to Middle East supply disruption risks. Iran currently maintains exports of 1.1 million bpd, but if the conflict escalates, this figure could drop to zero within 48 hours. More crucially, alternative export channels for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries (such as the East-West Pipeline) have a total capacity of only 3.5 million bpd, unable to fully compensate for the shortfall from the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
U.S. shale oil also can't solve the urgent problem: although production just hit a record 9.33 million bpd, labor shortages and rising drilling costs have caused new well investments to fall by 12%, and analysts expect production growth to slow to below 3% in the second half of the year.
(3) Demand Side: Risk Aversion Overshadows Real Weakness
Despite U.S. gasoline demand hitting a five-year seasonal low and European imports falling 5.1% year-on-year, geopolitical risks have triggered panic buying. The near-month contract price of Shanghai crude oil futures jumped 12% this week, and the SC-WTI spread turned to a premium of $3.16/bbl for the first time, reflecting Asian market concerns about regional supply disruptions. More notably, Brent crude net long positions have increased to a ten-week high, with speculative funds wildly betting on geopolitical premiums.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL buy@74~74.5
SL:72
TP:75.5~76.5
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you I. Next Week's Crude Oil Trend Analysis
(1) Supply Side: Gas Stations Signal Shortages, but Refineries Keep Pumping More
The supply dynamics present a paradox. OPEC+ is like a massive refinery deciding to continue increasing crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive month of output hikes. Strangely, however, U.S. gas stations (crude oil inventories) saw a sudden sharp drop in supplies last week—ending June 13, inventories fell by 11.473 million barrels, the largest decline since November last year. A closer look reveals that refineries produced more gasoline, with inventories jumping by over 5 million barrels, indicating robust oil refining but weak consumer demand for gasoline, suggesting a supply glut.
Additionally, U.S. shale oil wells may be facing headwinds. Reports suggest that U.S. shale oil production might peak in the second quarter of this year and then gradually decline in the second half. This is analogous to farmers planting fewer crops when vegetable prices are low—oil wells reduce extraction when oil prices are deemed unprofitable.
(2) Demand Side: Summer Arrives, but Where Are the Fuel-Hungry Cars?
Logically, with summer in the Northern Hemisphere, more people driving for trips should mean a peak season for gasoline demand. But reality shows U.S. gasoline demand has dropped to its lowest level for this period in five years, akin to an ice cream shop seeing fewer customers in summer. Europe’s situation is grimmer, with crude oil imports down 5.1% year on year, as they aggressively develop clean energy like wind and solar power, reducing dependence on oil.
There’s also the U.S. dollar factor. Although the dollar weakened slightly last Friday (the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.16%), it remains relatively strong overall. This is like shopping where the price tag stays the same, but your money buys less, making purchases feel costlier. As a result, other countries may cut back on U.S. dollar-denominated crude oil purchases.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL sell@74.5~75
SL:76
TP:73.5~73
Diversion def high_accuracy_signal(df):
df = df .rolling(10).mean()
df = df .rolling(50).mean()
df = compute_rsi(df , 14)
df = df .rolling(5).mean()
df = (
(df > df ) &
(df > 55) & (df < 70) &
(df > 2 * df )
)
return df [ ]
def compute_rsi(series, period=14):
delta = series.diff()
gain = delta.where(delta > 0, 0)
loss = -delta.where(delta < 0, 0)
avg_gain = gain.rolling(period).mean()
avg_loss = loss.rolling(period).mean()
rs = avg_gain / avg_loss
rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs))
return rsi
USOIL: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 73.969 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
WTI POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on WTI
WTI has been on a strong 2-week rally, following the geopolitical escalation where Israel launched a preemptive attack on Iran. This event sparked a 2% surge, keeping prices hovering around $77 for the past two weeks.
Despite the bullish momentum, I am anticipating a healthy pullback before looking to engage.
My eyes are on two key zones:
- April High Region (Previous resistance turned support)
- 50% Fibonacci Retracement (Measured from recent rally low to high)
🧭 Trading Plan:
1. BUY: is currently the only play, and as I anticipate for a two-level of pullback on the 4H chart.
🟢 Risk-to-Reward:
Targeting 1:3 R/R on either entry.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps youNext Week's Crude Oil Trend Analysis
(1) Price Movement and Market Sentiment
The crude oil market on last Friday (June 21) resembled a roller coaster that slightly dipped at the end. WTI crude oil futures closed at $74.93 per barrel, down 0.28% from the previous day, but still up 2.67% for the entire week; Brent crude oil fell more, dropping 2.33% to close at $77.01 per barrel. This is analogous to driving uphill, slightly sliding back near the peak but still trending upward overall. Investors now have mixed feelings: while worrying that escalating Middle East tensions will push oil prices higher, they also believe the U.S. may not intervene in the conflict immediately, so oil prices may not rise temporarily. As a result, everyone is on the sidelines, hesitant to trade.
(2) Geopolitics: Where is the Switch on the Powder Keg?
The Middle East is now like a barrel filled with gunpowder, and whether the U.S. will throw a match has become crucial. Israel and Iran are still attacking each other—Israel bombed Iran's gas fields, and Iran struck Israel's refineries. More tensely, the U.S. said it would decide whether to join the conflict in the next two weeks, and five aircraft carriers have already headed to the Middle East, like placing a lighter beside the powder keg, ready to ignite the fire at any moment. However, the market thought the U.S. might not take action immediately last Friday, so oil prices fell slightly first.
There is also the critical Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been threatening to block it. If it actually does, 20% of global maritime crude oil transportation will be affected, and oil prices may soar like a rocket. Now the market is like watching a suspense movie, not knowing when Iran will press the "blockade" button or talk about a ceasefire with Europe.
Next week's crude oil market will swing between geopolitical risks and supply-demand changes. If Middle East conflicts ease, the impact of OPEC+ production increases may emerge, and oil prices may fall; if conflicts escalate, especially if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may rise sharply. Investors should flexibly adjust their trading strategies according to the actual market conditions and not stubbornly adhere to one view. At the same time, it is necessary to stay calm, not be affected by short-term market fluctuations, and avoid making impulsive trading decisions.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL sell@74.5~75
SL:76
TP:73.5~73
USOILKey Offshore Oil and Gas Installations at Risk of Iranian Attack
Based on recent escalations and Iran's retaliatory capabilities, the following offshore installations are most vulnerable:
Strait of Hormuz Infrastructure
Why at risk: A critical global chokepoint handling 21 million barrels of oil daily. Iran has repeatedly threatened closure if provoked.
Potential targets: Tanker routes, underwater pipelines, and monitoring stations.
Qatar’s North Field Gas Facilities
Why at risk: Directly adjacent to Iran’s South Pars field (recently attacked by Israel). Shared reservoirs mean disruptions could cascade.
Vulnerability: Iran could target Qatari platforms to amplify global gas shortages.
Saudi/UAE Offshore Fields
Key sites:
Saudi Arabia’s Safaniya (world’s largest offshore oil field).
UAE’s Upper Zakum oil field.
Why at risk: Iran views Gulf states as Israeli allies; striking them would disrupt U.S.-aligned economies.
Israeli Mediterranean Gas Rigs
Leviathan and Tamar fields:
Provide 90% of Israel’s electricity.
Already targeted by Iranian proxies (e.g., Hezbollah rockets in 2023).
Bahrain/Kuwait Offshore Facilities
Strategic value: Proximity to Iran enables rapid drone/missile strikes. Past attacks (e.g., 2019 Aramco) demonstrate capability.
Why These Targets?
Retaliatory logic: Iran’s energy infrastructure (e.g., South Pars) was damaged by Israeli strikes. Targeting adversaries’ assets aligns with its "escalate to deter" strategy.
Global leverage: Disrupting Hormuz or major fields could spike oil prices 30–50%, pressuring Western governments.
Technical feasibility: Iran’s naval drones, cruise missiles, and mines can penetrate offshore defenses.
Immediate Threats
Target Risk Level Potential Impact
Strait of Hormuz Critical Global oil prices surge; 20% of LNG shipments halted
Qatar’s North Field High 10% of global LNG supply disrupted; Europe/Asia energy crisis
Israeli Gas Rigs High Israel’s energy security crippled; regional conflict escalation
Conclusion
Iran’s most likely retaliation targets are offshore installations in the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar, and Israeli Mediterranean fields, leveraging proximity and asymmetric tactics. Such attacks would aim to inflict maximum economic damage while avoiding direct confrontation with the U.S. or NATO. Global energy markets face severe disruption if hostilities escalate further.
A successful breakout above this descending trendline and resistance zone (near $74–$75) would confirm a bullish reversal, potentially opening the way for further upside toward $80 and $100 as next target.
US crude inventories have declined recently, reducing oversupply fears and supporting prices.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, while supply increases are more modest.
OPEC+ decisions to maintain production cuts or limit increases have also contributed to price support.
Summary
Oil prices are testing and potentially breaking out of a long-term descending trendline formed since mid-2022.
A confirmed breakout above the $74–$75 resistance zone would mark a bullish reversal, supported by tightening supply, geopolitical risks, and improving demand.
Traders should watch for confirmation signals and potential corrective pullbacks before further upside.
Failure to hold above key support levels could resume the downtrend.
#usoil #oil
ALL EYES ON WTI Nice and simple: If this breaks up, Stocks and Crypto Dump. If this rejects, nice pump incoming...
What happens in the Strait.. will dictate all...
TP REACHED ON OUR TRADE ON OILThis morning I posted to sell on Crude Oil, and our TP got filled to close the week with 5 profitable days strike.
Follow for more!
Oil diggers?🚀💥 OIL-DIGGERS, where you at?!
WTI delivered a picture-perfect reversal off the ELFIEDT – X-REVERSION signal, printing a clean “UP” just before price launched over 300 ticks straight up!
This is what happens when you combine exhaustion, momentum shift, and smart signal logic — early entries, minimal risk, and maximum juice.
🎯 SL below the signal candle. No hesitation. Just execution.
🛢️ If you trade oil and didn’t catch this one… it’s time to add this tool to your chart.
#WTI #OilTrading #Reversion #ELFIEDT #SmartMoneyMoves #TradingViewScripts #TrendReversal #CrudeOil
WTI Oil H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 76.02 which is an overlap resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 78.00 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 71.40 which is a swing-low support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Will oil prices fall after the sharp surge in crude oil?Oil prices corrected under the dual pressure of news-driven factors and inventory data. Brent crude oil futures traded in a narrow range, reaching $76.38 per barrel, while WTI July contracts edged down to $73.35 per barrel. With intensified geopolitical uncertainties, market sentiment remains dominated by wait-and-see attitudes. The unexpected increase in EIA crude oil inventories dampened market optimism. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories in the U.S. increased by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending June 14, far exceeding the market expectation of a 1.1 million barrel decline, indicating weak demand. The rebound in inventories has exerted downward pressure on oil prices.
Oil prices have repeatedly crossed the moving average system, with the short-term objective trend showing a range-bound rhythm. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is intertwined near the upper side of the zero axis, reflecting weak bullish momentum. It is expected that crude oil prices will mainly maintain a consolidative pattern, with the trading range between 79.00 and 73.00.
you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@75.0-76.0
TP:78.0-79.0
oil price Rise to seeking to mitigate the $ 78.00 per barrelCrude oil extended its rally to over $76.5 per barrel, the highest in five months, as worsening geopolitical tension threatened the supply of energy from the key region. Israel and Iran continued to exchange missiles late in the week. President Trump struck a hawkish tone against Iran to maintain the possibility of US involvement, which would risk global conflict and cut off tanker activity through the Strait of Hormuz. The demand for the crude will be so high that it will drive the Barrel at around $ 78.00 per barrel,that being said i will be aiming for the following areas
Main target for the week
Buy zone @74.00
tp 1:@78.00
