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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USDZAR-SELL strategy 12 hourly The pair has been moving between 18.1400 - 18.3990 and the battle is ongoing. The key GOLD movement, and with the belief that GOLD will correct, the same applies for this pair. technically we should see recovery lower and test 18.0300 GANN support. I feel that we may see touching 17.9350 at some point in time. Strategy SELL @ 18.2350-18.2750 when seen, or adjust to your view point. Profit order place at 18.0350 or wait for 17.9150 - 17.9350 area. The 18.0300 touching will attrack a bounce first before breaking down I feel.
Short
by peterbokma
4
Final stretch for 2024The rand rode a wave of both local and international positive factors through the year. The local election results along with the new GNU attracted buyers back to the SA bond market in the first half of the year while internationally, sustained risk-on sentiment from the Fed’s aggressive 50bps rate cut in September and a 30% Bull Run in gold prices allowed the rand to pull the pair from a high of 19.35 in February down roughly 12%, to a 20-month low, of 17.02. Gold prices are however coming off their highs of $2,780 per ounce while the DXY has surged roughly 6.5% since the end of September which is bucking the downward trend for the USD/ZAR trend. This has seen the rand become worst performing currency against the dollar post the US election results after the volatile ZAR slipped almost 6%. The pair now seems to be in a 5-wave impulse that was initiated at the end of September which coincides almost perfectly with the DXY bottoming out around 100.2. The positive correlation between the DXY and USDZAR has strengthened post the US election which will keep the rand on the ropes as we enter the last stretch of 2024. The pair is however facing strong resistance on the 200-day MA level of 18.27 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement of 18.43 which will allow the rand to pull the pair back towards the support between 17.88 and 18.00. A failed break below this blue support range will confirm the 5-wave impulse which could see the rand buckle to north of 18.50 as we head into 2025. Fundamentals: The declining gold price is rand negative however the risk-on sentiment in the market remains prevalent given the price action in risk assets such as equities (specifically tech stocks) and bitcoin. The rand has not been able to benefit from this risk-on sentiment which is not a positive sign. The Federal Reserve is expected to through another rate cut into the mix before year-end as well as the SARB and in terms of monetary policy, I expect the SARB’s hawkish stance to limit the rand’s losses for now. Zooming out, the pair remains in a downward trend shown by the black channel.
Long
by Goose96
USDZAR Neutral at 18.4Hi there, This is how the USD/ZAR looks like on the 1-hour chart, having encountered a resistance area at 18.4. It’s possible that it could push higher, but there are interesting levels that might pull the price lower. The levels of 18.1 and 17.7 are such areas to watch, and there is a possibility that the price may plummet down to 17.3. Overall, the trend is neutral at the current price, which is near a resistance area. Happy Trading, K. Not trading advice
Short
by Khiwe
Potential bullish rise?USD/ZAR has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance level which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 17.9840 1st Support: 17.8118 1st Resistance: 18.3280 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USDZAR-SELL strategy 6-hourly Overall the USD is overvalued right now, and corrections will happen short-term is my believe. This is not to say we should be prudent and use proper disciplines, and markets always are erratic, and when wrong we should re-access the market levels and conditions. The pair had a strong run up for for good reasons, but it is overbought since we touched 18.00 area, and we even climbed strongly near 18.1800. Depending to the trading strategy, we cam carefully build up shorts with low leverage to manage the storm. I feel we have a high stochastic, and overbought RSI and high up into the BB as well. Strategy SELL @ 18.1100-18.1600 or better, and take profit near 17.7850 for now. The lower end Ichimoku is 17.6500 area (where breakout happened).
Short
by peterbokma
USD/ZAR choose your bets - Up or Down? Sadly I say up to R20 :( USD/ZAR has remained in a symmetrical triangle since January 2023. This is a consolidation period of neither winning between the buyers and the sellers. But we are now approaching the apex 3/4s. And a breakout is imminent. NOw if we look at the pattern, it has a bullish flag pole which is favourable for the bulls to take the USD up to R20.00 against the ZAR. I hope we broken down below the support which will take it to R16.00. And I hope I am wrong that it will be going to R20,00. But unfortunately, I can't be biased and it looks like the next target above the resistance will be R20.00.
Long
by Timonrosso
1
USDZAR-SELL strategy 9-hourly chartConsidering the USDX and also the shape of the pair's pattern, likely we are dealing with a "false bull flag" pattern. This usually is a bearish pattern, and with patience we will see the pair around 17.8750 again. Yesterday's idea worked well, as long one took profits. The markets are USD bullish, and GOLD has been under severe attack as well, being liquidated, as I feel was logically based on the overbought status of the weekly chart. Strategy SELL @ 18.2650-18.3000 and take profit near 18.0450 for now.
Short
by peterbokma
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY 3 hourly chart GANN SQRThe GANN suqare is useful to identify potential movements, and the pair seems established inside a wider range. We have to be careful, as upside potential is there and we already have seen the movements yesterday from highs 18.1800 and low 17.9750 area. I feel GOLD is heavily overbought short-term, and yes, we are aware of the potential Ukrain escalations, but then again, GOLD buyers are accessing it only and its clear market is LONG GOLD and prone to sharp decline. Strategy BUY @ 18.0350-18.0700 and take profit near 18.3750 for now.
Long
by peterbokma
USDZAR BULLISHWassup Traders! See my analysis on USDZAR 1. Weekly Chart Price made a strong breakout of a bearish weekly trendline and on its way to the enxt weekly bearish trendline 2. Daily Chart After breakout we need to go down to lower time frames to look for trade opportunity since the bias is bullish 3. 1H Chart Price made a ABC correction after breaking the long bearish trendline and therefore we enter by trades targeting level 18.54000 area and SL just below point C(17.98000 area) of the correction
Long
by Sandro_AK