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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USDZAR Bullish Setup Developing Near Key Support🕰 Weekly Overview: Price held firm at a key weekly support zone last week, suggesting buyers are stepping in to defend the level. 📉 Daily Chart Explanation: Sellers have lost momentum, and recent candles show signs of bullish pressure beginning to emerge. This could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment. ⏱ 4H Chart Explanation: Price has clearly broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed the 50EMA with strong momentum. If price retraces into the discounted zone, it may offer a favorable long opportunity. 📌 Plan: Bias: Bullish Entry: Wait for retracement to discounted zone (near broken trendline or 50EMA) and look for price action confirmation Targets: TP1: Recent high in 4h TP2: Next resistance in weekly Invalidation: Break below 4H structure and EMA50
Long
by Amitrading
Time to take a breather Mr ZAR?The rand has been on a tear since the second week of April which as seen it pull the pair all the way down onto the psychological rate of 18.00, all the way from the previous all-time high of 19.92. The rand benefited from the global search for yield and at +10%, the 10-year SA government bonds still holds juicy carry trade returns for international investors. Additionally, the SARB has also toed the line with the Fed and has opted to stand by its hawkish bias. I don’t expect a move on rates from the SARB before the Fed cuts by another 25bps. Expectations are for the Fed to cut rates by 50bps in total for the remainder of the year so I expect the SA repo rate to remain above 7% for the rest of 2025, especially given last week’s news that there will be changes to the country’s inflation targeting regime. A new lower inflation target will imply that real rates will remain higher for longer which is rand supportive as it will attract more inflows to SA government bonds, on paper. The recent surge in gold prices coupled with renewed risk-on sentiment following Trump’s tariff pause, has turned the USDZAR into a runaway freight train. The latest SA trade balance increased further to R24.8 million in March 2025 which is rand positive. The three factors mentioned above, carry trade appeal, risk-on sentiment and the SA trade surplus, does strengthen the case for the rand bulls but has the rand ran a little too hot over the past few weeks? I believe it has and it will have to pull back to fetch some fresh liquidity before we see the pair break below the 18.00 mark. The pair is currently attempting to break and hold below the 61.8% Fibo rate at 18.13 and the 200-day MA at 18.17. I expect the support to hold at these levels and for the pair to climb higher and fetch liquidity around 50-day MA level at 18.52 before we see a substantial break below 18.00. It will be risky jumping in front of this freight train as the rand can pull the pair deeper towards 17.60 and 17.65 if the neckline from the downward channel does not hold. I’m keeping stops tight but rates below 18.00 do look like promising buy zones.
Long
by Goose96
USDZAR Bearish Optimism.Hi there, On USDZAR, it seems that we don't have much upward momentum left, do we? The price has reached the highs of the 19.31-19.55 area, and we might see a decline that could potentially mark the end of wave 4. The Wave 5 is a bit tricky there; it may fall to the 18 area, which is a zone of interest, or it could potentially drop further down to 16.5. Although prices may drop to 15.960 from the high of 17.174, my bias is in favour of 16.5, with two price targets at 18.5 and 18.0. Happy trading and have a great week. K. Not trading advice.
Short
by Khiwe
USD/ZAR LongThe South African Government released a press statement late today promising to mitigate and reduce Load-shedding for the foreseeable future past the winter season. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve has yet to release its interest rate decision which we assume will remain the same. These contrasting forces are typical of a trend reversal, especially considering that the US is heading to summer in May, which is a good time to do business. Also, President Trump's birthday is on the 14 of June why not invest in the dollar for the good times to come? The Rand apart from appreciating Gold prices lacks any attraction. I believe that investors are positioning themselves to acquire liquidity to stake in America for the long run
Long
by Kloud67Cortez