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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Stairs up, elevator down for USD ZAR.The rand has surpassed my expectations recently and reminded me that the USDZAR pair tends to take the stairs up, and the elevator down. The risk-on swing last week allowed the rand to keep the pair below the 200-day MA resistance rate of 18.80 which saw the pair fall back onto the psychological rate of 18.50. The downside break out of the blue wedge thus invalidates my previous expectation for the pair to re-test level above 19.40. The next support rate for the pair is the 38.2% fibo retracement rate of 18.38 and a break below this level will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the yearly low of 18.24. Technically the 50-day MA is set to cross below the 200-day MA and the RSI has room to move lower before hitting oversold zones which is rand positive. It's difficult to call the ZAR at the moment. A positive and peaceful local election result will see foreign investors return to the SA bond market which is rand positive coupled with a sustained dovish stance from the Fed. On the flip side, a sustained rise in the US 10-year treasury yields and the DXY could pull the pair higher back towards 19.00. The only missing piece is precious metal prices. The rand behaves like a commodity currency and another leg higher in precious metal prices will allow for a sustained rand rally towards 17.40. For now, I have a relatively neutral stance for the pair, but I am leaning towards a test of 17.40 over a test of 19.40 at the moment given last week’s developments. The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors. All of this is rand positive...
by Goose96
USDZAR Low risk buy signal.The USDZAR pair is trading below both its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having formed a Channel Down (blue) since the start of the year. The 1D RSI hit the bottom of its Rectangle, so even though there is some limited downside on the Channel Down before forming a Lower Low, the reward is much higher on the upside. Assuming a Lower Low at the bottom, we expect another +4.40% rise towards the Lower Highs, thus our Target is at 19.1500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
The little EM currency that could.The rand managed to stage an impressive recovery last week off the back of the increased risk on investor sentiment which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day and 200-day MA support rates. I did not expect the rand to pull the pair onto the upward blue trend line but the month-end flows helped nudge the rand a further than expected. This pair has humbled me in the past few weeks. I still however believe that this is a temporary pullback for the pair. A failed break below the upward blue trend line and the support at 18.68 will see the pair re-test the critical rate of 18.97. The pair is currently being squeezed by this blue wedge and I still favor a top side break over a downside break. A break above the critical rate of 18.97 will be an early indication of a top side break of the wedge. A break below 18.68 will however invalidate the expected price action in the chart.
Long
by Goose96
USDZAR-BUY stategy Daily chartThe pair is under further pressure due to GOLD remaining stable above $ 2,300.00. However, the chances are we will reverse, and therefore caution on shorting the pair. Stochastic is low, and even though it could of course move lower, overall we should recover from the lows. Strategy BUY @ 18.4800-18.5200 and place SL below 18.4450 and re-enter BUY near 18.3350-18.3500 if seen. Profit order place it somewhere @ 18.7350. note: my analysis are purely suggestions, and it is the trader/investor who should decide where to BUY or SELL of course. I appreciate the many nice comments I receive from the followers. I do my very best, but I am not alwayts right, therefore do study the charts as well. Thank you so much.
Long
by peterbokma
USDZAR-RANGE TRADE 4-hourly chartI have been traveling, but have seen the enormous movements of the pair. The pressure to the downside is extensive, but as I have been promoting for awhile, is the potential of a larger GOLD correction. Keeping that in mind, for now, we see a large range that is between 18.4000 - 18.7850 for now. We tried above 18.8000 and it failed, because GOLD failed moving lower, Strategy SELL @ 18.6750-18.7150 and take profit @ 18.4350, or BUY at 18.4350 area for a profit level of 18.6850. SL below 18.3750.
by peterbokma
USDZAR-B8Y strategy (still) 4-hourlyMy trading model had the right SL and we can re-enter lower again around 18.8000 below. The RSI is oversold, and we are way below GANN angle levels as well. Sorry to state, and did not have the run down of course, but that is part of life. Other positions are fine, so we have to keep on tracking it. Strategy BUY @ 18.7650-18.8200 and place SL below 18.6150. we need more room now for the oversold status we are in.profit level I suggest 19.0350 for now.
Long
by peterbokma
Blue wedge is narrowing on the ZARThe USDZAR has bounced up aggressively after the major blue support range held its ground at 18.40. The pair climbed a full rand to 19.40 within two weeks after touching the 3-month low of 18.40. The red resistance range has however managed to come to the rand’s rescue which has allowed the pair to slide back below the downward blue trend line. The blue wedge I have been highlighting is narrowing and it is only a matter of time before we see a breakout. The critical rate to watch remains at 18.97. A failed break below 18.97 will be the first indication of a top side break of the wedge which will see the rand fold to 19.65 against the dollar. A break below 18.97 will however allow the rand to re-test the bottom end of the wedge around the 200-day MA mark at 18.75. I’m currently leaning towards a top side break out of the blue wedge given the rand’s subdued gains from the recent rise in precious metal prices, the lead up to the local elections (29 May) and the broad-based dollar strength. A break below 18.97 and the 50-day MA at 18.89 will however force me to reassess.
Long
by Goose96
1
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartI had yesterday completely wrong, and it was because I felt GOLD should move lower, and it did not. It will of course move towards $ 2,100 over time, but not as yet as it has been holding its ground. The pair was stationed within the triangle, and the idea of moving higher, for later SELL did not happen. It happens and its a part of trading. Now we have a lower stochastic, and perhaps it has some room lower, but somewhere we will turn up. Strategy BUY @ 18.9650-19.0200 and place SL below 19.9050 and profit order @ 19.3575 for now.
Long
by peterbokma