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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

1Q2025 updateThe ABC corrective pattern that I predicted in my previous idea, USDZAR 1Q2025 outlook, has played out after what has been a turbulent month of January. The DXY started rolling over in mid-January which allowed the rand some room to pull the pair to a low of 18.30. The support of the 50-day MA, currently at 18.40, which coincides with the top of the 3rd wave in the chart, however halted the rand’s early year run. I haven’t added much to the chart since my previous idea except of the red resistance range and the Fibo retracement from the rand’s December slide. The pair is currently at an inflection point and in my first idea I predicted another 5-wave impulse higher towards 19.35, and possibly higher towards 19.50. For now, the critical support level which will invalidate this initial prediction is the 50-day MA and a break below this level will allow the rand to test the 200-day MA at 18.15 and the psychological support of 18.00. To the top side, a break above the red resistance range between 18.85 and 18.90 will be an early indication of more rand losses in the 1Q2025. Technically the pair is still trading in an upward channel and the golden cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA does not bode well for the rand. Additionally, the RSI also has room to climb higher. Zooming out (I’ll add a weekly candle chart in the comments) the pair is knocking on the door of breaking above the downward channel that’s been in place since June 2023. The fundamental side of the coin is a lot murkier than the technical, as usual I guess. SA’s GNU is not producing much green shoots and the post-election optimism has all but faded. One positive for the rand is the fact that SA has been able to keep the lights as we recently recorded 10 straight months without load-shedding but apart from this there is not much fundamentally to be optimistic about on the local front. The interest rate decisions this week also does not bode well for the rand with the Fed opting to pause rates at 4.50% while the SARB cut rates by 25 bps. There are still many uncertainties about Trump’s policies and how aggressive his stance will be towards SA but rest assured, it’s going to be a volatile 1Q.
Long
by Goose96
1
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 18.6497 1st Support: 18.3265 1st Resistance: 18.8560 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party. ICmarkets Following Unfollow IC Markets is an online forex broker specialized in providing transparent trading solutions to both retail and institutional investors alike. We provide superior execution technology, lower spreads and unrivaled liquidity. Also on:
Short
by ICmarkets
1
Potential bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support level. Pivot: 18.64432 1st Support: 18.3265 1st Resistance: 18.85609 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR is falling toward the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 18.5602 1st Support: 18.3265 1st Resistance: 18.8685 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
usdzar buy tradeThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trend, indicating increasing momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a bullish crossover, further supporting the potential for an upward move.
Long
by Mansa_Musa_Capital
The Rand's journey to R29 against the US Dollar. A Recall from our 31st December 2023 article when we anticipated a fall of the USD to R17.40: "In April 2022, major institutions sold the Rand off when it was trading around R14.40 ~ R14.80 against the US Dollar. Price proceeded to print a steep rising channel, capping off close to R19.92 with a shooting star and a beautiful bearish engulfing candle that closed the first week of June 2023 below R18.70. Indication that Rand sellers that were sitting around the R19.30 level in April 2020 were still awake." Looking at price action after June 2023, we saw a change of character in price by way of printing a lower-low and lower-high. Price proceeded to print another lower-low around R17.03 in September 2024.Reading the 2 weekly candles of that low in the last 2 weeks of September 2024, we can see: 1. A double bottom 2. Bullish engulfing pattern 3. Dragonfly Doji when combining the 2 candles. This was a signal that buyers are in still much active in the game. Price proceeded higher since then, reaching highs of R19.22 in Jan 2025, testing and cleanly breaking the June 2024 weekly supply zone at R18.84. Currently price seems to be in a correction from that break. We anticipate a retest of a zone between R17.82 and R18.30. If price finds & confirms support in this area, we can see the exchange rate moving above R19.92 to make new highs. Weekly RSI is cleanly in bullish territory and above the smoothing average. Should this zone fail to produce buyers that take the exchange rate above R19.23, the rate could tumble to R16.20 and further down to R15.90.Taking into account where Gold Spot is sitting in comparison to the DXY, there are more probabilities of Gold prices catching a reversal and somewhat dragging the Rand's strength with, than there are possibilities of the DXY falling; however that is up to the market to decide. We cannot predict, we can only prepare. Targets to the upside: (probable) R20.25 R21.96 R30.28 R54.40 (far future) Targets to the downside: (possible) R17.20 R16.20 R15.90 Current sentiments: Bearish on the South African Rand unless the R17.82 - R18.30 zone fails as support and turns into resistance.
Long
by Source_Sailor