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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly The pair has moved sharp upwards again, and this on the basis of stronger USD and also weaker GOLD price. On my last update I was neutral, as there is no clarity, and same as now, it is not picture clear. However, there may be more upside potential due to the fact we have broken triangle resistance. I am not keen personally to venture this moment anything, and my ideas are more suggestive. Strategy BUY @ 18.4750-18.5000 and place SL below 18.3500. Profit order near 18.7450.
Long
by peterbokma
9
Could 2024 be coming with Rand strength against the US Dollar?In April 2022, major institutions sold the Rand off when it was trading around R14.40 ~ R14.80 against the US Dollar. Price proceeded to print a steep rising channel capping off close to R19.92 with a shooting star and a beautiful bearish engulfing candle that closed the first week of June 2023 below R18.70. This was an indication that Rand buyers that were sitting around the R19.30 level in April 2020 were still awake. Looking at price action after June 2023, we can see a change of character in price by way of printing a lower low and lower high, signalling potential further strengthening of the Rand against the US Dollar. This will be confirmed once the USDZAR pair starts trading below R18.00 in the coming year as we traded bearishly throughout December 2023 and closed the year below the 50 Week EMA. Once the rate drops below R17.40, we could see the short term downward target of R16.20 being reached, with the medium to long term target sitting at R14.80 to rebalance the market after the institutional demand of the USDZAR in April 2022. If however, R18.00 remains strong support, we could see one last push by the US Dollar Bulls above the 50 Week EMA to levels beyong R19.70 potentially pushing the exchange rate to R21.00. Current sentiments: Bearish on the USDZAR with neutrality taking over if we trade above R18.80 in the first half of 2024, and bearish sentiments will be completely off the table once the pair trades and holds well above R19.70 as the probability of reaching R21.00 will be in play.
Short
by Source_Sailor
2
USDZAR to Go BearishWith top-down analysis revealing a bearish BIAS on the USDZAR price, there are essentially more confluences confirming the bearish strength. The price is appropriately moving in an ascending channel in this HTF DTs scenario. Price is now in an LTF corrective structure as a result of what I see as price forming impulse and corrective structures as it moves down to the lower TFs. Consequently, I am holding off on looking for an entry until I see a breakout followed by a continuation of the corrective structure in a LTF.
Short
by MakhadoRomeo
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourlyThe pair did test 18.7400 area and fell too a low of 18.5250 area and recovered upwards. The issue is, we are boxed-in within GANN support and resistance, ranging 18.5600 - 18.7400. The stochastic is negative, and for that reason, I prefer SELL into rally. If short, and not taken back low 18.50s I suggest to abort now. I feel we may see higher first, but this is for SELL strategy, and not to recommend a BUY for now. Strategy SELL @ 18.6900-18.7250 and place SL above 18.7800. Profit target is near 18.3150 now (above 18.2700 T-line support area).
Short
by peterbokma
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourly chartThe pair has been unable to move much higher, and considering GANN resistance now 18.3600 area, and a double bottom 18.2500 estimated, and negative stochastic, albeit low, suggest we may see a large move lower. This is purely assumption and believe, and do not take my word for it. However, a tight stop-loss may do the trick and protect in case we are wrong. Strategy SELL @ 18.2800-18.3100 and place stop-loss above 18.3750 and profit order @ 18.0850.
Short
by peterbokma
2
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair had a strong move higher, and this is also inline with the dollar index movement. Same as some other pairs, we are starting to see a s/h/s patter (inverse), and this suggests we may see much higher levels in time. the breakout point is around 18.6550. For now, it feels we are slightly overdone, hence I prefer SELL strategy but with a tight stop. Strategy SELL @ 18.5700-18.6100 and place SL above 18.6700. Profit order suggested @ 18.4350.
Short
by peterbokma