Bullish OpportunityPrice seems to have found support at a supply zone, where by DXY and gold has confirmed ZAR to swing back up again. Price is nicely below MA's for a good entry
ZARUSD trade ideas
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourlyI had updated on the SELL strategy that we violated the GANN resistance 18.7800 area and that it changed to BUY activity to see 19.8875 area as possible. It has moved further out. GANNs are useful for trading and helps to determine the support and resistance when we are on a directional trend.
For now, stochastic is higher up now, and we have moved nicely reaching the next resistance area @ 19.0250.
Strategy SELL @ 18.9500-18.9950 and place SL above 19.0575 and take profit @ 18.7850.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartGIOLD drifti8ng lower and likely it will move back below $ 2,100. This should mean higher USDZAR overtime. However, for now, we are resisting @ 18.7850 GANN, and stochastic albeit positive, is turning lower from 83.0 handle. I feel we see attempt lower for now. Kepe stops tight though.
Strategy SELL @ 18.7500-18.7750 and place SL above 18.8000 for now. Profit @ 18.5750.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartGold is moving lower slowly, and I know gold may reach near $ 2,100 in coming sessions. However, the pair is at a crossroad, and near GANN resistance, and as long we hold below 18.7800 and seeing stochastic high, positive, but slightly turning, gives me the feel that we may see lower before higher again.
Strategy SELL @ 18.6850-18.7500 and place SL above 18.8000 and profit near 18.4850.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartWe have respected GANN resistance 18.7900 handle, and it feels that we may another attempt south again. Stochastic turning (not negative as yet) but from higher up (not extreme).
Strategy SELL @ 18.6850-18.7150 and place SL above 18.8150 and profit @ 18.4950.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartIt failed to move higher, but am still on the BUY side, because the pair is mainly influenced by GOLD and Crypto. Once there correct, which is still very much expected, the pair will skyrocket.
Patience is the game.
For now we have support 18.5000 and below means delay and lower levels to be seen before recovery.
Strategy BUY @ 18.5350-18.5600 and take profit @ 18.7750 and place SL below 18.4750.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair has based somewhere 18.5500 and now embarking on moving towards higher grounds. The stochastic is positive now, and any strong move lower of crypto which bring gold lower, hence we will see 18.9000-18.9500 again is my personal feel.
Strategy BUY @ 18.6350-18.6650 and take profit @ 18.9175 and place SL below 18.5250.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair has been under attack again, and we did have some recovery but limited above 18.7500-18.7800 area. Now we are moving sharply lower with negative stochastic once again. This paves the way towards 18.5000 support, where I feel we may attempt to BUY again. My fear is SELL side not safe, due to the fact that any major change in crypto and GOLD will lead to recovery 18.9500.
Strategy BUY @ 18.5000-18.5350 and place SL below 18.4750 and profit perhaps @ 18.7350.
USDZAR BUYThis might be the last bullish stretch on USDZAR before potential downward movement towards 17.9
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartI believe we remain in a larger range area, but feel tendency is to break beyond 18.8000 again.
The issue is, GOLD which is driven by crypto as people are seeking safety so the speak. However, this is not safety, rather is thin market conditions, and heavily oversold for the pair and overbought for crypto and GOLD.
Strategy BUY @ 18.6150 - 18.6750 area (add is already long, and keep leverages within bounds. SL perhaps below 18.4800 now, and profit target @ 18.8575.
13 Rand per dollar is comingremember my previous rand idea, this is what it is based on.
Daily timeframe we sold around 19 rands, because we had just completed a correction cycle Y which is a top when looking on the weekly timeframe.
From 19.80 rands we have been in a sideways correction, so for the correction cycle to be complete, we need to break below 17.60 and break above it again, otherwise we will continue dropping till 13 rand, which is my hopeium target for rands.
USDZAR pre-NFPsThe top side of the wedge held its ground and the break below the 61.8% Fibo at 19.87 has allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50- and 200-day MA.
There is strong support levels at 19.75 and 19.67 and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls print will determine whether this is the long awaited break-out of the blue wedge or a fake-out.
A weaker than expected NFP print will allow the rand to pull the pair onto the support at 18.50 while a stronger than expected print will see the pair pop up like a submerged beach ball to re-test 18.97, in my opinion.
Fundamentally the rand has benefitted from a broad-based dollar which has seen the DXY fall more than 2% over the past 4-weeks, a strong rally in precious metal prices and over-all risk-on investor sentiment with US indices hitting record high. A failed move back above the 50- and 200-day MAs will allow the rand to work back more losses towards navy blue range between
18.25 and 18.40.
Technically the pair is heavily oversold on the 4H timeframe but the is room to move lower on the daily timeframe.
Bullish Opportunity Price seems to have found support at the bottom of the bullish channel. It is also at a support zone. 4h candlesticks reflect nice resistance at this zone. 4h RSI also overbought.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair showed lower levels in today's session, and for good reasons (Gold remaining high and moving higher). GOLD has been influenced by the crypto currencies, but am not placing high belief that this will remain. They are all overbought, and this will end one of the sessions, hence our pair will recover upwards. it is only difficult to suggest SL under these circumstances.
Strategy BY @ 18.7500-18.8500 and place SL below 18.7350 for now. Profit order somewhere @ 18.9850.
Top side test of the Blue wedgeThe rand had a tough week at the office following the budget speech which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a 4-month high of 19.40. The pair is now testing the downward blue trend line which forms the blue wedge pattern in place since 2Q2023.
A break above this trend line would see the rand fold to 19.63 and possibly higher towards the all-time highs of 19.94. The fact that the rand failed to hold the pair below the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 is technically rand negative and on top of that the 50-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA (golden cross).
The only scope for a rand recovery is if the dollar depreciates significantly off the back of early rate cuts from the Fed or if precious metals go on a raging bull rally. Until then it seems as if the rand will remain on the ropes. The daily RSI still has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones which is not rand supportive.
USDZAR| Price Volatility Over 18.9The price is bearish to the 4-hourly candle, and 18.9 is a potential bullish zone. The price also has the potential to reach the 18.80 area if bearish pressure in the 19.2 range is strong enough to drop down following what appears to be an ABC pattern.
Overall, the price retraces, but we do not have a strong bearish confirmation until we see a strong lower high below 18.90136.
Happy Trading,
K.
USDZAR Trade IdeaTLDR: Looking for LONG entry confirm.
4H
HTF Trend = Bullish
Internal trend = Bearish
Currently we are at 4H demand, with trendline liquidity and FVG's sitting above.
There is an extreme unmitigated demand zone with liquidity sitting above.
The scenario does exist that we hunt the most extreme zone.
Need internal trend to shift bullish.
M15
Trend = Bearish
Looking at sessions as possible entry.
All the other USDXXX Pairs saw strong bullish moves yesterday late afternoon. This means USDZAR should have seen an equally strong bearish move, but it didn't translate. I am taking this as an indication that USDZAR has insignificant selling pressure, and will be looking for entry confirm from this area and ride to M15 Strong high.
Will try update along the way.
** for my own journaling purposes**
** blessings**
USDZAR- RANGE TRADE strategy 4-hourlyThe pair has reached SL (not far from entry as a try-out). now we have moved within a range, and it feels we may trade between 18.80-19.05 for the coming sessions. I prefer BUY on dips, as I am not trusting GOLD values where they are at.
Strategy BUY @ 18.8250-18.8500 and take profit near 19.0000. SL suggested below 18.8000.
USDZAR Pushing Even HigherHi there,
Fundamentals :
The South African rand was stable in early trading as investors awaited the release of producer price inflation data and the central bank's rate decision. The rand had strengthened the previous day after consumer inflation fell for a second consecutive month. However, analysts believe that this is unlikely to affect interest rates for now. The South African Reserve Bank governor has stated that he wants inflation to decline sustainably before considering rate cuts. The producer price inflation data is expected to show a decline from the previous month. All economists polled predict that the central bank will leave rates unchanged.
Technical Analysis :
The continuity of trends in the market cannot be guaranteed, as they are influenced by various factors. To predict the direction of a trend, one must consider both fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves examining underlying factors like economic indicators, political events, and market sentiment, -which in this case, appears uncertain.
I noticed that 17.85705 is a significant support area for the zone marked as (2), which is in the range of 18.61774. Furthermore, the (A) point is a lower high compared to (V), indicating that bears are betting on the Low (2) to be broken.
Well, both (2) and the B of ABC are too strong to be influenced by bearish interests, especially considering the uncertainty in fundamentals. So we only have bullish interests in this scenario.
However, if the price breaks 17.85705, the setup will become invalid.
So up we go squeezing above 20 and nearing 24.
Happy Trading,
K.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourlyThe pair has remained holding at the lows and GOLD has spiked further (against my belief). However, GOLD is overbought, and it will correct lower in time. Therefore, the pair here should be BUY on dip for move back towards 19.3000.
Strategy BUY @ 18.9700-19.0400 and place SL below 18.9350 with a profit order @ 19.2350.
Bullish Idea Seems price has found support at the bottom of the upward trend line. Price also touched KC and 4h hour RSI stochastic is oversold and has crossed to confirm upward momentum
