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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Top side test of the Blue wedgeThe rand had a tough week at the office following the budget speech which saw the USD/ZAR pair touch a 4-month high of 19.40. The pair is now testing the downward blue trend line which forms the blue wedge pattern in place since 2Q2023. A break above this trend line would see the rand fold to 19.63 and possibly higher towards the all-time highs of 19.94. The fact that the rand failed to hold the pair below the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 is technically rand negative and on top of that the 50-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA (golden cross). The only scope for a rand recovery is if the dollar depreciates significantly off the back of early rate cuts from the Fed or if precious metals go on a raging bull rally. Until then it seems as if the rand will remain on the ropes. The daily RSI still has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones which is not rand supportive.
by Goose96
USDZAR Trade IdeaTLDR: Looking for LONG entry confirm. 4H HTF Trend = Bullish Internal trend = Bearish Currently we are at 4H demand, with trendline liquidity and FVG's sitting above. There is an extreme unmitigated demand zone with liquidity sitting above. The scenario does exist that we hunt the most extreme zone. Need internal trend to shift bullish. M15 Trend = Bearish Looking at sessions as possible entry. All the other USDXXX Pairs saw strong bullish moves yesterday late afternoon. This means USDZAR should have seen an equally strong bearish move, but it didn't translate. I am taking this as an indication that USDZAR has insignificant selling pressure, and will be looking for entry confirm from this area and ride to M15 Strong high. Will try update along the way. ** for my own journaling purposes** ** blessings**
by JohnJEC01
USDZAR Pushing Even HigherHi there, Fundamentals : The South African rand was stable in early trading as investors awaited the release of producer price inflation data and the central bank's rate decision. The rand had strengthened the previous day after consumer inflation fell for a second consecutive month. However, analysts believe that this is unlikely to affect interest rates for now. The South African Reserve Bank governor has stated that he wants inflation to decline sustainably before considering rate cuts. The producer price inflation data is expected to show a decline from the previous month. All economists polled predict that the central bank will leave rates unchanged. Technical Analysis : The continuity of trends in the market cannot be guaranteed, as they are influenced by various factors. To predict the direction of a trend, one must consider both fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis involves examining underlying factors like economic indicators, political events, and market sentiment, -which in this case, appears uncertain. I noticed that 17.85705 is a significant support area for the zone marked as (2), which is in the range of 18.61774. Furthermore, the (A) point is a lower high compared to (V), indicating that bears are betting on the Low (2) to be broken. Well, both (2) and the B of ABC are too strong to be influenced by bearish interests, especially considering the uncertainty in fundamentals. So we only have bullish interests in this scenario. However, if the price breaks 17.85705, the setup will become invalid. So up we go squeezing above 20 and nearing 24. Happy Trading, K.
Long
by Khiwe
USD/ZAR may rise 1117 - 1657 pips19.0660 is our pivot point. Our preference Rebound. Alternative scenario Below 19.0660, expect 18.9760 and 18.9220. Comment The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and negative. The MACD must break above its zero level to trigger further gains. Moreover, the price stands above its 20 period moving average (19.1650) but below its 50 period moving average (19.1890). Supports and resistances 19.4600 ** 19.4070 * 19.3530 ** 19.2990 19.1873 last 19.1010 19.0660 ** 18.9760 * 18.9220 ** Number of asterisks represents the strength of support and resistance levels.
Long
by Daniel_Thompson
Possible retest and continuation to upside or downside to HLOur resistance point is the high of Q4 (R19,6282) which is also the head of the head and shoulder pattern. Looking at recently a AB=CD pattern could complete near the recent higher high which is also last weeks high, and I'm expecting a sell signal could mean a possible reversal to last week low ,which is also the recent higher low (R18,81728) however a possible retest and continuation to the upside is also on the cards near (R19,15924).
by KhoraCapital
Blue wedge, topside or downside break? Our beloved rand seems to be on the ropes again after a stronger than expected US CPI print. The stronger than expected US CPI is cooling last year’s aggressive rate cut expectations which is dollar positive and drives risk-off sentiment, which is rand negative. Zooming out, the USD/ZAR pair has been in a wedge pattern since the rand made its 2Q2023 recovery which saw the rand pull the pair to a low of 17.41 before the rand folded back to 19.64 in 4Q2023. The blue support range between 18.31 and 18.40 has capped the rand’s gains since the backend of 2023 and the pair failed to break below the 50-day and 200-day MAs to re-test this support range in January 2024. To the topside we have the red resistance range of 19.15 and 19.30. The pair is expected to re-test this range following this afternoon’s price action, if it breaks above the black downward trendline. The critical rates to watch is the January 2024 high at 19.22 and the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97. A break above 19.22 will be an early signal for a possible topside break out of the blue wedge which will see the rand slide back above 19.65. Conversely, a move below 18.97 will allow the rand to re-test the 50-day and 200-day MAs which coincides with the bottom of the blue range. A downside break will allow the rand to recover to a best-case scenario of 18.00. Factors motivating a topside break: Expected rate cuts from the Fed in March don’t materialize and commodity prices, particularly platinum, remain subdued. For now, I’m on the fence since these macro-economic factors can flip in an instant. Technically, not much can be made of from the RSI which still has room to move higher while the failed break below the 50-day and 200-day MAs is rand negative. Topside or downside break out of the blue wedge, please leave your comment below!
by Goose96