Blue wedge, topside or downside break? Our beloved rand seems to be on the ropes again after a stronger than expected US CPI print. The stronger than expected US CPI is cooling last year’s aggressive rate cut expectations which is dollar positive and drives risk-off sentiment, which is rand negative.
Zooming out, the USD/ZAR pair has been in a wedge pattern since the rand made its 2Q2023 recovery which saw the rand pull the pair to a low of 17.41 before the rand folded back to 19.64 in 4Q2023. The blue support range between 18.31 and 18.40 has capped the rand’s gains since the backend of 2023 and the pair failed to break below the 50-day and 200-day MAs to re-test this support range in January 2024.
To the topside we have the red resistance range of 19.15 and 19.30. The pair is expected to re-test this range following this afternoon’s price action, if it breaks above the black downward trendline.
The critical rates to watch is the January 2024 high at 19.22 and the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97. A break above 19.22 will be an early signal for a possible topside break out of the blue wedge which will see the rand slide back above 19.65. Conversely, a move below 18.97 will allow the rand to re-test the 50-day and 200-day MAs which coincides with the bottom of the blue range.
A downside break will allow the rand to recover to a best-case scenario of 18.00.
Factors motivating a topside break: Expected rate cuts from the Fed in March don’t materialize and commodity prices, particularly platinum, remain subdued. For now, I’m on the fence since these macro-economic factors can flip in an instant.
Technically, not much can be made of from the RSI which still has room to move higher while the failed break below the 50-day and 200-day MAs is rand negative.
Topside or downside break out of the blue wedge, please leave your comment below!
ZARUSD trade ideas
USD/ZAR Look for a series of higher highs and higher lows on the price chart.
Enter a long (buy) trade when the price makes a pullback to a higher low, anticipating that the uptrend will continue.
Place a stop-loss order below the most recent higher low to manage risk.
Take profit when the price makes a new higher high.
Downtrend Trading:
Look for a series of lower highs and lower lows on the price chart.
Enter a short (sell) trade when the price makes a retracement to a lower high, anticipating that the downtrend will continue.
Place a stop-loss order above the most recent lower high to manage risk.
Take profit when the price makes a new lower low.
long expectations on USDZARLooking at the long possibility on USDZAR, we could expect a bullish movement starting at a retracement at 18.83 as its the initial value for both the double bottom formation and the retest on the 11.8% fibo level which marks the average between the 0 and the 23.6% level, this is a very beautiful setup that we shall follow after the breakout on the 19.20 or the bearish momentum.
USDZAR Double confirmation sell signalThe USDZAR pair is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), on a strong consolidation phase as it approaches the end of an 8-month Triangle. Having been rejected last week very close to not only the Triangle's top but also the (dotted) Channel Up top (Lower Highs trend-line), we have a strong short-term sell signal in our hands. Our Target is Support 1 at 18.555.
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Usdzar long sell reversal Looking at USDZAR which on point 19.00226..
If you can take I clear look on the previous 4hour candle stick has hit our support..which means it has confirmed our reversal.on the 24th of Jan 2024 we had a reversal exactly on that point..
Our tp1 will be on point 18.83063
And our tp2 will be on point 18.857289
Our last to which is tp3 will be on point 18.23294
Possible buy OppertunityPrice has found support and is at the bottom of the Keltner channel, price also has pushed below EMA's which is a good entry in my opinion. Overall price is still in a downward trend on the 4h but it seems price needs to push up first. RSI still negative but close to the mean and stoch RSI is overbought on 4h
USDZAR BULLISH TREND WILL CONTINUOUS TO 20.00 HI FRIENDS!!
As we can see this USDZAR again near at support zone we have good chance to join the rally
as we can see US $ is holding support and all major pairs. this pair is also holding a strong support and trading above a uptrend line zone, so our risk and reward ratio is fantastic on this pair let's see what markets brings its just a trade idea share Ur thoughts with us it helps many other Traders.
STAYTUNED!
for more updates
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourlyThe pair went went quickly higher on the back of GOLD decline. the stochastic is positive and still has some more room, and considering GOLD weakness, likely we will see the pair trending higher a bit.
Strategy SELL @ 19.1950-19.2250 and place SL above 19.3150 and profit order @ 18.9750.
USDZAR-NEUTRAL strategy 4-hourlyThe pair did not move higher as I felt it may have, and instead stalled and mover lower to the 18.9300 area. The SL was activated, if short, and now we observe and see coming sessions what direction it will take. The triangle upside was respected and violated on the down side, and stochastic is negative and mid-way now.
Overall strategy play within the 18.6350- 19.1250 band for now.
USDZAR: some rand weakness until elections?A price action above 18.95 supports a bullish trend direction.
Further bullish confirmation for a break above 19.20.
The target price is set at 19.50.
The stop-loss price is set at 18.70.
Remains above its 200-day simple moving average supporting a bullish underlying trend.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourlyThe pair remains up in the air, and we are near the triangle breakout above 19.0600. Stochastic is still positive and high, but the way it seems to hoover, suggests we may see a sudden spike upwards.
Later we can SELL again, but for now, I am not confident on decline right now, and GOLD is staying on the low side.
Strategy BUY @ 19.0300-19.0500 and place SL below 18.9450 and take profit @ 19.1950.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartthe pair is trying to maintain the 19.00s but feel we still have a chance for lower. The triangle break will determine where we will go, but judging stochastic, I feel south still possible, but keeping SL very tight in case wrong.
strategy SELL @ 19.0100-19.0500 and place SL above 19.0975 for now. Profit order @ 18.7350.
Testing critical levelThe pair is currently testing the 61.8% Fibo level at 18.97 and we have the psychological resistance rate sitting at 19.00. A break above this resistance range will see the rand slide to the top end of the current blue downward trend line which coincides with the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.30.
A failed break above 19.00 will allow the rand to pull the pair back onto the 50-day and 200-day MA rates at 18.73 and 18.75, respectively.
Fundamentally, commodity prices, particularly platinum have had a sluggish start to the year which is rand negative. Additionally the dollar has remained solid this week while markets digested last weeks FOMC and strong non-farm payroll prints which also does not bode well for the vulnerable rand. For now, I remain on the fence as long as the pair sits in this big wedge illustrated by the blue trend lines.
Technically the RSI still has room to move higher before entering the overbought zone which is not rand supportive. A cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA is also on the cards which is technically a 'golden cross' and rand negative.
USDZAR Heading shortUSDZAR is likely to further drive down to the 23 fib level....fib level 78.6 has signaled a short move with the instrument having given in to the bears at a resistance zone and pointed to a corrective wave.
please engage with me if you have a different perspective or share the same sentiment.