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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

USD/ZAR weekly timeframe updateI had to invalid my previous long-term USDZAR idea for the 3Q2023 after the rand’s strong rally within the current A-B-C corrective pattern in June and July. The pair is now testing a critical support range between 17.92, the 61.8% Fibo retracement level which coincides satisfyingly with the 50-week MA rate, and 18.03, the pair’s 200-day MA. (17.92 – 18.03) A break below this support range will allow the rand to pull the pair into the major blue support range between 16.70, 2023 low, and the green 61.8% Fibo rate of 17.05. The long-term 200-week MA support at 16.12, which is lining up with the long-term black trendline currently seems a bit far but if the winds blow into the rand’s sails, we may very well see the rand test this support later this year. Now the question is what factors could create a favourable climate for those rand breezes. Well for starters, the rand’s carry trade advantage. The difference between long-term SA bonds and US securities is currently very favourable for the rand with SA 10-year bonds yielding north of 11%. Another positive factor is the SA trade balance which is currently sitting at a surplus of R10 billion. Additionally, the interest rate hiking cycle seems to be taking a breather as well as global CPI and PPI figures which is adding fuel to risk-n investor sentiment which is rand positive. There are however some tides which could limit the rand’s recovery. The main one is the expected “mild recession.” A mild recession, the Federal reserve's words not mine, would put commodity prices under pressure as well as dampen investor sentiment (the rand behaves like a commodity currency). Additionally, the most recent GDP figures from China also does not bode well for commodity prices and SA exports. China 2Q2023 GDP figures came in lower than expected at 6.3%, yoy, up from 4.5% in 1Q2023. Bear in mind this is the year-on-year growth following the reopening of the Chinese economy after the lockdowns in 2022… So, on the flip side, dampened investor sentiment and weak commodity price growth will strengthen our support range between 17.92 and 18.03. A failed break below this range will see the pair inch back higher towards the blue 50% - and 38.2% Fibo retracement rates at 18.31 and 18.69 respectively. I’m relatively neutral at the current price range but if I had to stick my neck out, I’m leaning towards a break below my critical support rate (17.92 – 18.03) over a push higher back above 18.50. The weekly technical indicators are also rand positive with the MACD holding a strong sell signal while the RSI has plenty of room to move lower before hitting the oversold range. On the daily indicators, the pair is oversold, rand overbought, which could allow the pair to test the top end of the current downward channel.
Short
by Goose96
1
USDZAR Finding Support on PitchforkThe USDZAR found support on the lower point of the Pitchfork & could not continue to the 200 day moving average, the expectation is price to begin trending upwards, the black and the pink lines form a parallel channel within the pitchfork, price fell out of that channel & where the black meets the pitchfork line is an interesting place for price to consolidate (double resistance) before another attempt higher. Given time, we expect the trend to support the Rand firming over the medium term. We must also be cognizant of the environment, recession figures will begin to feed into emotions, so a US dollar spike is not out of the question resulting in a hit on stock markets.
Long
by runyamhere
6
USDZAR analysis with the rand to strengthen to R15.90?Right off the bat, I normally get short analyses wrong with USD/ZAR. But the system is the system, so I have to keep to the rules. Since the trade hit my first target at R18.90, it's been forming an Inverse Cup and Handle. Now the price has broken below, which means the USD is likely to weaken from here. The indicators however are conflicted. 7>21 (about to cross) Price >200 - But the price could also drop below it entering a downtrend RSI<50 Target 1 for this analysis is an absurd R15.90. Let's see how this plays out. For argument sake, I hope it's right this time. Paying 27 US Dollars for 2 Prime cans was not the best investment of my life. And I know, I got ripped off!
Short
by Timonrosso
USDZAR - 200dmaUSDZAR has arrived at the 200dma after tagging my top side level of R19.13 Will need to see how it reacts here today and tomorrow. R18.43 needs a retest. The 200-day moving average is a technical analysis tool that helps investors and traders determine the overall market trend. It is calculated by taking the average closing price of a security over the past 200 days (or 40 weeks) and plotting it on a chart. The moving average can give traders a sense regarding whether the stock is in an uptrend or downtrend. When the price of a stock is above its 200-day moving average, it is generally considered to be in an uptrend, while when it is below the 200-day moving average, it is considered to be in a downtrend.
by Trader-Dan
4
Buying opportunitie on usdzarUsdzar tapped into a daily point of demand on a daily time frame, after it created a change of character then continued to break structure to the upside confirm bullish trend. All confluence have been met. 1. price confirmed reversal of structure and confirmed further by breaking structure ( drop base really,price dropped ,took liquidity and tapped into the daily poi.price then created a consolidation phase which is the base the price rallied up and broke structure.) 2. After price broke last higher low, created a chock. 3.price created liquidity in a form of trend line 4. Price left imbalance and also left an order block at a discount level of Demand. 2
Long
by wisemanhlokoa
1