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SOUTH AFRICAN RAND / U.S. DOLLAR

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ZARUSD trade ideas

Rand to feel the carry trade squeeze The rand held up well despite the spike in volatility over the past two week however the macroeconomic back drop does not bode well for our local unit. The carry trade is unwinding forcing investors to close their Yen shorts which is the cause of the massive spike in volatility. The Nikkei is down 8% while the USDJPY has already dropped another 2% in early morning trade, this is not normal behavior. The rand is a risk-on asset and market sentiment is aggressively swinging to risk-off sentiment which is rand negative. The support at 18.12 is holding its ground and if the rand fails to pull the pair below this rate it will signal that the rand post-election rand strength has petered out. The pair is currently testing the resistance rate at 18.37 and a break above this level will see the pair break the downward channel to climb and test the 200-day MA at 18.62. If the current stress from the unwinding of the carry trade persists and we see a continued sell-off in risk assets the rand will soon find itself testing the downward trend line around the psychological 19.00 mark with a move towards 19.35 firmly on the cards.
Long
by Goose96
PreFed ZARThe rand has been on the back foot in the second half of July despite the broad based dollar weakness which has seen the USDZAR pair touch a high of 18.53. The rand has however managed to pull the pair back below the 50-day MA rate at 18.30. The critical level to watch is the blue resistance range between 18.50 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of 18.56. A failed break above this level will allow the rand to pull the pair back below the 18.00 handle towards 17.80. A break above the 200-day MA at 18.64 will however invalidate this move. The break out of the rising wedge is rand positive as well as the fact that is managed to close last week below the 50-day MA resistance rate.
Short
by Goose96
3
Bullish reversal off 50% Fibonacci support?USD/ZAR has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 18.2155 1st Support: 18.1280 1st Resistance: 18.4373 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Anticipating a dropPrice has been bullish until the 4h fair value gap got triggered at 18.50000. Now we have a bearish sentiment, because price swept the 4h liquidity before the mitigation. To strengthen this scenario price has cleared the swing low to give us displacement, we are now looking for a flip that will make a sweep and simultaneously mitigate the rejection block at 18.38950 for bearish positions. This rejection block resonates with our 4h fair value gap, however, we should be wary of the unmitigated zone above. Fundamentally USDZAR is expected to trade at 17.00000. Looking to risk 600 pips in order to accumulate 3000 pips…
by tokelohomi