USDZAR BUY IDEA### *USD/ZAR - Liquidity Sweep Sets the Stage for Bullish Momentum Towards R20*
USD/ZAR has recently cleared liquidity at a critical support zone, suggesting the potential for a strong bullish rally. With the market absorbing selling pressure, we are targeting the key psychological level of R20 as the next significant resistance.
*Key Observations:*
- *Liquidity Sweep:* Price action dipped below a key level, likely triggering stop-losses and trapping sellers.
- *Market Structure:* Bullish rejections and increasing momentum indicate a possible continuation upward.
- *Psychological Target:* The R20 level aligns with a significant resistance zone and market sentiment.
*Trade Plan:*
- *Entry:* Buy at as bullish confirmations unfold.
- *Stop Loss:* Below the recent liquidity sweep for managed risk.
- *Take Profit:* Targeting the R20 level, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio.
*Risk Management:*
This trade aligns with the broader trend and liquidity dynamics, but proper position sizing and discipline are crucial. Stay vigilant for price action confirming the bullish bias as the pair approaches the R20 target.
ZARUSD trade ideas
Bearish drop?USD/ZAR is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 17.9006
1st Support: 17.7160
1st Resistance: 18.0045
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USDZAR | Analysis Amongst Short Side MomentumDemand inflows into gold have seen USDZAR take a whack.
Would not be surprised if momentum carries lower in near term. Questionable on how far gold will rally as already at key levels.
No longs until larger falls, no shorts further unless re-push in trend.
Final stretch for 2024The rand rode a wave of both local and international positive factors through the year. The local election results along with the new GNU attracted buyers back to the SA bond market in the first half of the year while internationally, sustained risk-on sentiment from the Fed’s aggressive 50bps rate cut in September and a 30% Bull Run in gold prices allowed the rand to pull the pair from a high of 19.35 in February down roughly 12%, to a 20-month low, of 17.02.
Gold prices are however coming off their highs of $2,780 per ounce while the DXY has surged roughly 6.5% since the end of September which is bucking the downward trend for the USD/ZAR trend. This has seen the rand become worst performing currency against the dollar post the US election results after the volatile ZAR slipped almost 6%.
The pair now seems to be in a 5-wave impulse that was initiated at the end of September which coincides almost perfectly with the DXY bottoming out around 100.2. The positive correlation between the DXY and USDZAR has strengthened post the US election which will keep the rand on the ropes as we enter the last stretch of 2024.
The pair is however facing strong resistance on the 200-day MA level of 18.27 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement of 18.43 which will allow the rand to pull the pair back towards the support between 17.88 and 18.00. A failed break below this blue support range will confirm the 5-wave impulse which could see the rand buckle to north of 18.50 as we head into 2025.
Fundamentals: The declining gold price is rand negative however the risk-on sentiment in the market remains prevalent given the price action in risk assets such as equities (specifically tech stocks) and bitcoin. The rand has not been able to benefit from this risk-on sentiment which is not a positive sign. The Federal Reserve is expected to through another rate cut into the mix before year-end as well as the SARB and in terms of monetary policy, I expect the SARB’s hawkish stance to limit the rand’s losses for now. Zooming out, the pair remains in a downward trend shown by the black channel.
USDZAR The USDZAR pair is currently trading in a tight range between 18.22, the 200-day MA resistance rate, and 17.90, the 38.2% Fibo retracement level. These are the critical rates I’m watching in the lead up to the last non-farm payrolls print for the year this Friday. Additionally Fed chair Powell will also speak later this week.
My original idea for a 5-wave impulse higher towards 18.50 is still on the cards in my opinion and a break above 18.20 will confirm this move. A break below the blue support range between 17.85 and 17.90 will however invalidate my original idea.
The DXY and US10 year yields have turned around last week however I believe the DXY still has room to make another leg higher before the end of the year which is rand negative.
Please also see the DXY chart attached.
DXY:
USDZAR-SELL strategy 12-hourly chart GANN SQThe pair seems to have broken out of the range, and judging GANN angles, we may see 17.9450 test short-term, and we may be en route 17.7400 area medium-term.
The USDX is negative too, so this supports further the move lower as a note.
Strategy SELL @ 18.00-18.0650 and take profit near 17.7550 for now.
Bullish DollarBulls looking to strengthen slowly moving into 2025 up to 2028
I give it many years as we've been ranging fir years now and after consolidation comes a big move
I wee buy chart patterns
Flag cup and double bottoms
Mva 50 price is Above signaling buys
Targeting 19 rand a dollar tp 25/26 I see more but I will keep my prediction now basic a logical
18.07-18.1010 buy zone as long above 18.0610
17.56-17.62 sl range
USDZAR next possible moveHi traders is mpho again,what is your opinion between the US dollar n ZAR,according to my view we were trending down but USD get back in the game and brakes the strong trendline support that was holding the trend down, soo am seeing a little retest which it seems to not enough it can be pushed a little down then we goo up,I will advice you to do your own research before you can take trades,trading is risky you might loose all your capitals🙏
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USDZAR-SELL strategy 6 hourly chart GANN SQThe pair has tried higher again, and came back quickly after. Over all, it starts feeling moving south, i.e. stochastic negative, GANN is protected around 18.2250 now and gives room for lower area 17.8350.
Strategy SELL @ 18.1650 - 18.1875 and take profit at 17.9450 for now.
USD/ZAR's Explosive Journey Will You Miss the Next Big Move?Narrative Overview
USD/ZAR is pushing higher into a critical Wave 5 expansion. The pair is now heading toward significant Fibonacci resistance levels with momentum on its side. Traders should focus on opportunities to position for Wave 5 completion, while watching key invalidation points to manage risk.
Key Levels to Trade the Wave 5 Upside
Immediate Targets for Wave 5:
22.25 (1.618 Fibonacci – Diagonal Wave 5):
This is the primary target for Wave 5 completion. Price is expected to approach this level with strong momentum, providing a key area to secure profits or tighten stops.
24.35 (2.0 Fibonacci – Extended Wave 5):
If bullish momentum is sustained, this is the next high-probability target. However, the likelihood of a deeper correction increases beyond this level.
Support Zones for Continuation:
19.34 (Inducement Wave 3 Resistance):
Price may retest this zone as support if there’s a pullback before the final push into Wave 5. Holding above here confirms strength.
14.40 (Wave 4 Support – 0.382 Fibonacci):
This is a major structural support that must not be broken. As long as price stays above this zone, the bullish structure remains valid.
Bullish Invalidation Levels:
11.35 (0.618 Fibonacci):
If price falls below this level, the Wave 5 structure is invalidated, signaling a potential long-term bearish reversal.
Core Outlook: Trading Wave 5 Upside
Primary Scenario – Bullish Expansion:
Price is expected to continue its advance toward 22.25 and potentially extend to 24.35. Momentum will likely remain strong unless a significant correction breaks key support zones.
Pullback Opportunity:
Any retracement to 19.34 or 14.40 could offer an opportunity to enter long positions for the final Wave 5 push.
Action Plan for Traders
Enter Long Positions:
Look for pullbacks into support levels (19.34 or as deep as 14.40) to build positions for the Wave 5 push.
Target 22.25, with an extended target at 24.35 for an overextension scenario.
Manage Risk:
Place stop losses below 14.40, as a break below this level could invalidate the bullish Wave 5 outlook.
Monitor price action closely near 22.25 for signs of exhaustion or reversal.
Key Themes to Highlight
Wave 5 in Play:
USD/ZAR is completing its final bullish impulse, targeting 22.25–24.35 as a significant area of resistance.
Pullback = Opportunity:
Any corrections to support levels are potential buy zones to ride the final leg of this bullish move.
Risk Management:
Protect positions below 14.40, as this marks the structural foundation for the current bullish trend.
USDZAR Neutral at 18.4Hi there,
This is how the USD/ZAR looks like on the 1-hour chart, having encountered a resistance area at 18.4.
It’s possible that it could push higher, but there are interesting levels that might pull the price lower. The levels of 18.1 and 17.7 are such areas to watch, and there is a possibility that the price may plummet down to 17.3.
Overall, the trend is neutral at the current price, which is near a resistance area.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY 3 hourly chart GANN SQRThe GANN suqare is useful to identify potential movements, and the pair seems established inside a wider range. We have to be careful, as upside potential is there and we already have seen the movements yesterday from highs 18.1800 and low 17.9750 area. I feel GOLD is heavily overbought short-term, and yes, we are aware of the potential Ukrain escalations, but then again, GOLD buyers are accessing it only and its clear market is LONG GOLD and prone to sharp decline.
Strategy BUY @ 18.0350-18.0700 and take profit near 18.3750 for now.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 3 Hourly chart GANN SQThe pair has been kind of ranging, and no defined destination. we are hampered by resistance 18.2375 and on down side 17.9700. Even with GOLD strength the interest rate expectation as dampen the SELLERS.
I feel we may see lower again, but not with conviction, so take heed please.
Strategy SELL @ 18.1500-18.1750 and take profit at 18.0350 for now.
Contracting bearish flagDollar Rand is in a corrective phase which may likely lead to an impulse downward due to the current bullish phase failing to sustain its upward pressure and stability and 18.2000. Alternatively, if price actions fail to fall, followed by stability above 18.2000, the pair may continue rising retesting the 18.3000 barrier.
USDZAR SELLSSelling USDZAR here around 18.11 towards 17.90. Observing the trend line break, price should target recent low and create a fresher low. Our most used reversal pattern, head and shoulders seems to be formed and ready to move. ZAR interest rate decision and USD Initial Jobless Claims tomorrow should fuel the sells.