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ZAMBIAN KWACHA / SWISS FRANC

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ZMWCHF trade ideas

MY TRADING PLAN (THE FOUNDATION TO MY TRADING)This is a condensed version of my trading plan. I follow this plan faithfully every day, It is the foundation to my trading. I mentioned in my approach segment of this trading plan that I build my strategies based on the tactics within my playbook. All the tactics I use to build strategies I have listed here on tradingview and they are as followed: Chart Patterns: FLAG PATTERN (TREND CONTINUATION) RECTANGLE PATTERN (TREND CONTINUATION) SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE (TREND CONTINUATION) ASCENDING TRIANGLE (TREND CONTINUATION) DESCENDING TRIANGLE (TREND CONTINUATION) WEDGE PATTERN (TREND CONTINUATION) ASCENDING TRIANGLE (TREND REVERSAL) DESCENDING TRIANGLE (TREND REVERSAL) SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE (TREND REVERSAL) DOUBLE TOPS & BOTTOMS (TREND REVERSAL) WEDGE PATTERN ( TREND REVERSAL) TRIPLE TOPS & BOTTOMS (TREND REVERSAL) HEAD & sHOULDERS (TREND REVERSAL) 1-2-3 REVERSAL PATTERN (TREND REVERSAL) Candlestick Patterns: SHOOTING STAR (BEARISH REVERSAL) HANGING MAN (BEARISH REVERSAL) BEARISH ENGULFING (BEARISH REVERSAL) DARK CLOUD COVER (BEARISH REVERSAL) EVENING STAR (BEARISH REVERSAL) DOJI (TREND INDECISON, REVERSAL) HAMMER (BULLISH REVERSAL) BULLISH ENGULFING (BULLISH REVERSAL) PIERCING LINE (BULLISH REVERSAL) MORNING STAR (BULLISH REVERSAL) Indicators: OPENING RANGES (PROVIDING A MARKET BIAS) - MY TOOLBOX (MY TECHNICAL TOOLS) ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO
Education
by stephenleachman
36
MY TOOLBOX (MY TECHNICAL TOOLS)My toolbox is a list of technical tools that I implement in my strategies. Each of these technical tools can be used separately or together depending on the strategy, understanding the purpose of each tool and knowing how to apply them within the market is crucial to their accuracy. Below is how I personally apply these technicol tools within my toolbox. Fibonacci Retracement: After price makes an impulse move I use fibonacci retracements to find levels that price can end the retracement and continue back into the direction of the overall trend. The levels I use .386 .50 .764 .786 and .886 percent levels. In a strong trend I Look for price to at least retrace .386 percent of the impulse movie. Many times different triangle patterns will form around this level. The .50 and .618 I like to consider Reasonable retracement levels of the overall trend. The .764 .786 and .886 I like to use on a type of 1, 2 ,3 reversal where price makes a strong impulse move against the trend (A retracement) on this movie is where I draw the fibonacci retracement looking for price not to make a new high or low (continue trend) but rather reverse at the .764 .786 or the .886 percent level. Fibonacci Expansion: After price makes an impulse move and a retracement or consolidation, I then use a fibonacci expansion to find potential targets, where the next impulse move might end. Levels I use .618 - 1.00 and 1.618 percent levels. Note that a 100 percent expansion is an equal mashered move of the first impulse. Andrew's pitchfork: I Use andrew's pitchfork to find the slope of price. The median line I use as a gauge to the strength of that slope. If price is trading in a clear andrews pitchfork (at least 3 touches as support and/or resistance) and if price is trading below the median line then I consider it to be a weaker slop then if price was trading above the median line. these slope lines can act as support and resistance. Simple Moving Average (SMA): I only use the 100 and 200 DAY moving averages on a daily chart as passable support or resistance. Also to provide a longer term directional bias. If the 100 day MA Is above the 200 and price is above both then a quick longer term bios will be bullish and visa versa if the 100 day MA is below the 200 and price is below both then the longer term bios is bearish. The MA cross I would consider as a change or pasibol change in the overall trend. Relative Strength Index (RSI): I use Relative strength index (RSI) as a gauge of momentum and strength of the market. Also I use RSI as a trigger into a trade in certain strategies. I scale my RSI where I can see the 60 and 40 levels and use a 20 period instead of the default 14. I look at 5 levels on the RSI - 70, 60, 50, 40 and 30. If RSI is above 70 its strong bullish momentum. If Above 60 but doesn't pierce 70 bullish momentum. If bouncing from 60 to 40 I consider that a range. and visa versa for bearish momentum, If RSI is below 30, strong bearish momentum. If below 40 but can't pierse below 30 bearish momentum. Note I like to see a 40 hold on a retracement in a uptrend and 60 hold on a retracement in a downtrend. I also watch for divergence as an indication of a reversal and sometimes use trend lines on the RSI for a trigger into a trade. I do this only on a lower time frame 5 or 15 min.
Education
by stephenleachman
6
OPENING RANGES (PROVIDING A MARKET BIAS)A opening range is when the market opens at a particular time such as for the year, month, week and day or session in forex. The market sets a high, a low and reviets those highs and lows but fails to break through creating the range. I personally need to see price test a level at least twice making a type of double top, double bottom forming the range. opening ranges are the same concept as any other type of range, your ether playing inside the range or waiting for a breakout. once price breaks out it becomes a trading opportunity and even more opening ranges can set a direction bias of the market. The types of opening ranges: Daily Or Session in forex open range - Assets traded on an exchange, Look for price to set an OR in the beginning of trade on that exchange. Forex on the other hand watch for the open of the session to set a doble high, doble low and whait for the break. Remember in trading the session Opening range breakout only trade currencies correlated to that session. This is an intraday trade setup and can not be used for a longer term bias. Weekly opening range - In forex the weekly open begins on sunday at 5PM EST, From this time look for the market to set a double high, double low marking the range. Remember that time is not an issue, to set a weekly OR it could take 1 day or a couple of days the most important thing is that it set at least a double top & bottom befor the break. Once price breaks to one side and there's a pullback that's supported, the breakout direction can now also be used as a bias for that week. a lot of times there will be at least 2 impulse moves on a weekly OR break , an impulse move after the pullback consolidation and then another impulse move usually the second impulse move is towards the end of the week. monthly Opening range - I personally don't use monthly OR much but they can give a directional bias for that month. Yearly opening range - which can be used to provide an overall direction for the year. Usually the first couple of months within the year markets will make a large range trying to figure out where it should go Once that range breaks to one side it's a owerful signal that price will continue in that direction for a while. Remember this is a longer term time horizon so yearly OR breaks can lead into big moves. NOTES: I only trade the session and weekly Opening Range breakouts, the monthly and yearly OR breaks I only use for a longer term bias. Trading the OR Breakout is always best to go in the direction of the trend. Conventional Way To Trade The Bullish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a break of the top of range. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a pullback at the breakout level. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. Conventional Way To Trade The Bearish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Sell a break of the Bottom of range. (3)Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2) Sell a pullback at the breakout level. (3) Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4) Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different.
Education
by stephenleachman
BREAKOUT VS PULLBACK (AGGRESSIVE VS CONSERVATIVE)Breakouts and pullbacks are both points of entry. A breakout is when price sets a high and or low and later pushes through (breaking out) setting a new high or low. According to my personal trading plan, trading breakouts are more of an aggressive entry point due to the potential for false breakouts and possibly poor risk - reward. It is vital to wait for the breakout candle close before entering, (It is not considered a true breakout until the breakout candle closes) and a lot of times this could lead to a not so attractive risk - reward. On the other hand trading a breakout could give an entry that price might not pullback to thus providing a good entry point. The most important factor of a breakout is momentum some would say volatility but as I mentioned previously I consider volatility the rapid change in price whereas momentum is the direction in which that volatility is moving. There must be signs of strong momentum in the direction of the breakout If not then what looks like a breakout could just be volatility and high volatility with little momentum leads to false breakouts. (I use RSI but You could use any momentum based indicator to gage market momentum and just by waiting to for the breakout candle to close is a sign of momentum the higher or lower the close from the breakout point the stronger the momentum. VS. Pullbacks: After price makes a clean breakout, Its a very high probability that price will return to (Or Around) the breakout point. In my personal trading plan trading a pullback is considered a conservative point of entry. This is due to the fact that given price made the breakout providing a directional bias, entering in on a pullback could provide better risk - reward. Pullbacks can appen very quickly or they could take awhile and possibly could never occur at all. on pullbacks I like to see momentum winding down kind of gearing up for the next push. Know the market condition and implement the appropriate entry point into the strategy that best fits.
Education
by stephenleachman
2
FALSE BREAKOUTS (MARKET DECEPTION)All Warfare Is Based Upon Deception: This was spoke by the 6th century Chinese general Sun Tzu. "All my rules in trading and the foundation of my trading plan itself is based off the book The Art Of War". So how do I apply this quote to the markets: The goal in trading is to accurately predict the future price of an asset and to profit off your predictions. Theres only 2 types of analysis, funcomentol and technical so there are 2 areas we can find market deception, one side deceiving another for financial gains. In fundamentals, market deception is found within companies and centrolbanks. In technical analysis It found in false breakouts and here's why: False breakouts happen when the market is in a consolidation or a range usually after a trending move ending at a support or esistance. It is a time of low volatility. after awhile of consolidation or ranging there will be a breakout and this breakout could be considered as ether a reversal or continuation of the overall trend. the deception is when price breaks out all the breakout traders are buying or selling into that direction. where's the logical stop loss level in this type of trade 9 times out of 10 above or below a previous high or low. unforchunatly the market makers and quants know that, so they slam price back the other way taking out all the stops in its path. (If you bought a breakout you're stop would be a sell order enough of these sell orders in one location once triggered would act like a push to a large boulder downhill.) In conclusion this is a deceptive move for market makers, Proprietary traders and quants, the so called smart money to add liquidity to the markets and of course make profits for themselves on the losses of others which is what trading is all about. NOTE: There's 2 types of false breaks, first being the above described based on deception which happens in a low volatility and the second are false breaks that happen in high volatility like in a very choppy market.The second I don't pay much mind to because I don't trade in choppy markets. The first, on the other hand is very important to watch for in low volatility at key support and resistance levels. being able to spot false breaks gives you the ability to utilise them and if caught in one and faked out of the trade, the understand of why gives you the ability to turn a disadvantage into an advantage.
Education
by stephenleachman
2
OPENING RANGES An opening range is when the market opens at a particular time such as for the year, month, week and day or session in forex.The market sets a high, a low and reviets those highs and lows but fails to break through creating the range. I personally need to see price test a level at least twice making a type of double top, double bottom forming the range. opening ranges are the same concept as any other type of range, your ether playing inside the range or waiting for a breakout. once price breaks out it becomes a trading opportunity and even more opening ranges can set a direction bias of the market. The types of opening ranges: Daily Or Session in forex open range - Assets traded on an exchange, Look for price to set an OR in the beginning of trade on that exchange. Forex on the other hand watch for the open of the session to set a doble high, doble low and whait for the break. Remember in trading the session Opening range breakout only trade currencies correlated to that session. This is an intraday trade setup and can not be used for a longer term bias. Weekly opening range - In forex the weekly open begins on sunday at 5PM EST, From this time look for the market to set a double high, double low marking the range. Remember that time is not an issue, to set a weekly OR it could take 1 day or a couple of days the most important thing is that it set at least a double top & bottom befor the break. Once price breaks to one side and there's a pullback that's supported, the breakout direction can now also be used as a bias for that week. a lot of times there will be at least 2 impulse moves on a weekly OR break , an impulse move after the pullback consolidation and then another impulse move usually the second impulse move is towards the end of the week. monthly Opening range - I personally don't use monthly OR much but they can give a directional bias for that month. Yearly opening range - which can be used to provide an overall direction for the year. Usually the first couple of months within the year markets will make a large range trying to figure out where it should go Once that range breaks to one side it's a powerful signal that price will continue in that direction for a while. Remember this is a longer term time horizon so yearly OR breaks can lead into big moves. NOTES: I only trade the session and weekly Opening Range breakouts, the monthly and yearly OR breaks I only use for a longer term bias. Trading the OR Breakout is always best to go in the direction of the trend. Conventional Way To Trade The Bullish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a break of the top of range. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Buy a pullback at the breakout level. (3)Stop can be place below the range low or 50% retracement of bottom to top of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key resistance level each setup will be different. Conventional Way To Trade The Bearish Opening Range Breakout: -----Breakout----- (1)Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2)Sell a break of the Bottom of range. (3)Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4)Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different. -----PullBack----- (1) Wait for a clear opening range to form. (2) Sell a pullback at the breakout level. (3) Stop can be place above the range high or 50% retracement of top to bottom of range depending on risk - reward. (4) Target should be structure based at a key support level each setup will be different.
Education
by stephenleachman