1BigPapi

1BigPapi

Altcoin majors performance vs BTC during the ongoing selloff. This is highly informative in deciding what to retain and what to swap for stronger performers. ETHBTC is our baseline for alt performance at around -0.9%. Trade out of anything that underperforms it by more than a few points. Despite what the timeline thinks, a lot of the market still underperforms...

1BigPapi

Looking at the selloff just now, probably heavily linked to macro - PMI came in hot today. This now opens up a greater possibility of dropping further, and realize the bearish divergence on (daily) momentum to play out. That said .. if you zoom out on the weekly.. $85k to $80k show a confluence of support if we do get a bearish breakdown here. Not a huge drop...

1BigPapi Updated 

I've seen many analysts looking for a top in Q1 .. potentially Q2. Lesser looking for something late in 2025 into 2026. You can put me in the camp that will likely exit my biggest positions in Q1 if the market tracks like I'm hoping. I see Bitcoin dominance wavering a bit here, and on the log trend we a resistance approaching around low to mid $100s (estimate...

1BigPapi

Momentum looks healthy, higher-timeframe structure looks like the rest of the alt market: on the verge of a breakout. And with BTC dominance logging a potential rejection from further upside (for now), that adds a little more weight to alt season continuing.. after the small preview of it at the end of November, early December.

1BigPapi

I don't see top signals (structural, momentum, on-chain, etc.), other than sentiment is rising, but that is inevitable given the new pro-crypto president in the US. That said, absolutely no one knows where Bitcoin or crypto goes from here. So much is unprecedented about this cycle. But we can speculate.. and I think we have our small pullback here before...

1BigPapi

The last 4 times we visited this level , BTC saw a healthy distribution, sending us back down. Now sentiment is up, rate cycle is over, we saw minimal sellers on the move up thru Sept.. Will bulls bring enough demand to absorb selling at the Nope Zone this time? I give it around 60% odds of recovering this level. But if we don't make it this time, just stack...

1BigPapi

I've seen posts on social media complaining (or farming engagement) about ETH ETFs. Specifically they are commenting on ETH dropping in price after they launched. Here are a few important facts to consider: BTC was red for nearly a month after launching, losing over 20% Stocks had their worst day in 2 years at the same time the ETH ETFs launched Relax....

1BigPapi

In early June I called this level as a potential downside target. Now Bitcoin is landing on a confluence of: ~bull market support (20w SMA) ~diagonal support extending from Jan-24 ~the next value range along $64.4k This might be LTF long opportunity. Definitely a good time to scoop up a little more spot if you are DCA'ing, like me. Still, I don't think we're...

1BigPapi

Ethereum getting stronger in recent weeks. Might attribute some to cooling off of Bitcoin Dominance after US and China Bitcoin ETF launches. Might also factor in some hope of US ETH ETF. Could hint at a larger Ethereum move in coming month(s) once Bitcoin settles down.

1BigPapi

I'm stacking, here & lower. I see no indication the cycle is over. Doesn't mean I'm right, but thats my plan. I see plenty of reasons for the market to cool off, go volatile & sideways a while. That's okay. I'm not a fibonacci maxi, but textbook retracements for your consideration:

1BigPapi

I'm not one for slapping a few meme lines on a chart and calling it good data. But what if Bitcoin and this cycle really are THAT simple?

1BigPapi

Bitcoin currently stuck under the 8 year diagonal resistance extending from 2016, and a local horizontal resistance around 54%. Could get spicy over the coming days and weeks depending on what happens next. ~If Bitcoin climbs over 55% that would invalidate a nearly 8 year trend, bullish for BTC ~If it proper rejects here (<52%), we get an alt season

1BigPapi

Bitcoin currently stuck under the 8 year diagonal resistance extending from 2016, and a local horizontal resistance around 54%. Could get spicy over the coming days and weeks depending on what happens next. ~If Bitcoin climbs over 55% that would invalidate a nearly 8 year trend, bullish for BTC ~If it proper rejects here (<52%), we get an alt season

1BigPapi

Bitcoin is at it's highest price in 1,144 days. Respect to those who remained here all 1,144 days. In recent weeks we consolidated within the value range of $38k to $48k. Our premise was simple: price over $35k is high-timeframe (HTF) bullish, and over $32k is healthy- keep stacking. This week started spicy for one reason – this morning price broke January’s...

1BigPapi

Respect how clean this correction on $BONK is, so far. 62% fib retracement. Impressive for a meme. But I'm not convinced its finished trending down on higher timeframes. Invalidation of downtrend above ~.000021 BONKUSD (approximate level- technicals are iffy on memes).

1BigPapi

Some traders are buying the Solana Saga phone to claim a 30 million BONKUSD airdrop, currently worth a little more than the phone. Preface: Short term cap gains on BONK claim, for a phone you presumably doxxed to buy, is between 10% & 37%. Averaged to 20%, means you'll owe $100 on $500 of CRYPTOCAP:BONK , $160 at $800. Current Trend: BONK is averaging a 40%...

1BigPapi

Summary : Bitcoin offered a spicy month of green candles. Mid October through to yesterday’s weekly close was 4 weekly green candles, for a collective 40% gain at peak. Some call this the early stages of a bull market, others are looking for a pullback. I think both are possible, and we’ll cover both. My advice for the past year remains the same, dollar cost...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin/Money Supply (M2) - 12 Month Chart This appears to support the floor being set in Q4 2022. Bitcoin is repeating the general corrective fractal of past cycles. But it looks top-heavy. The macro looks messy. We need big adoption this cycle to invalidate diminished returns.