1BigPapi

1BigPapi

In the past two weeks Bitcoin successfully retested the Nov-21 former resistance as support. The 23.6 fib level held (with intraweek wicks lower). This indicates bulls are in control. Price is approaching the value gap that rejected Bitcoin last summer. This is historically a heavy sell range, and its likely to get messier here through the next week or two....

1BigPapi

Bitcoin Update: Following the late January breakout, Bitcoin returned this week to retest the November 2021 diagonal resistance flipped support (bullish). It is holding (for now) - but watch it closely going into the weekly close tonight. Note that even if we respect the Nov 2021 support, price may continue riding the diagonal down to retest $20k psychological...

1BigPapi

2023 started with the first positive (bullish) momentum breakout since 2021. Going into February it needs to reset, which means price retracing. Bulls want to hold the first green box (~$21k) and confirm the Nov-21 diagonal resistance (white line) as support. Bears want to drop below that Nov-21 diagonal resistance (white line) to retest lower levels. I'm...

1BigPapi

Looking at the current cycle: W.D. Gann , Charles Dow, and others discovered that price typically retraces 50% to 62%. Of course trading isn't always that easy, but sometimes charts line up beautifully. Bitcoin retraced to 50%, recovered to 38%. This implies a healthy correction. Curious to see if it holds that 38% level.

1BigPapi

The Dollar Index is testing the key level around 101.x. This range served as resistance 7 times since 1986. All eyes are on US economic data (and Euro zone), but if the Dollar loses 101 on the monthly it likely leads to heavier downside, meaning upside for crypto

1BigPapi

Thoughts on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Since the 1980s, the 101 range rejected DXY 7 times. Its currently retraced to diagonal resistance flipped support, extending from the early 2000s, now at 101.8. With the Fed approaching peak rates, this confluence of levels could signal more downside. The next FOMC is a critical one. If the DXY continues it's descent,...

1BigPapi

I'm not fudding $APE, its one of only 5 altcoins I own. But I think its gonna wreck late / FOMO buyers later in January or February after the mint. High staking emissions; hype growing like repeat of Otherside when APE dropped >80% in the 5 weeks after. Yuga vesting also unlocks in March. Be careful, take some profit.

1BigPapi

Price dropped down to the current support on the M2 adjusted chart. This support level correlates with the 2019 top, and the assumption here is that the money adjusted level is coming into play the same time the Fed is considering tempering rate hikes. Of course the big focus now is peak hike versus monthly hikes, but once the response to the new peak hike plays...

1BigPapi

Fed saying the peak rate 5% next year. imo this news -had- to accompany a 50bp hike or apes would have prematurely partied. I think the 4000% climb up to now was worse. They want to raise as much across 2023 as they rose in November 2022 alone. Of course there are layers of complexity here, but looking at the topical move here, I don't think its thats bad and...

1BigPapi

So .. the word on the street is that the Fed *may* temper future hikes, but reversing course takes time, and that was during a less stressful macroeconomic and geopolitical climate. Reference 2015-16. US Dollar Index ( DXY ) logged 3 tops in 2 years before collapsing thru 2017. I've been DCA'ing into crypto for months occasionally. I try to buy during extreme...

1BigPapi

Markets remain neutral to bearish bias on higher timeframes. In previous bear markets it took BTC around 11 months (330 days) to find a floor, once RSI bottomed. We are around 270 days currently. 330 days will land in Jan '23, but given the macro I would expect a longer bear market than in the past. Now saying this has a bearish to neutral bias.. note that it is...

1BigPapi

The Dollar Index / $DXY continues it's month of weakness, since peaking at 114.8. The DXY is pricing in Fed comments and economic actions by the European and Asian markets. imo market participants are cautiously reentering, anticipating a soft pivot by the Fed in Q1.

1BigPapi

To my crypto fam watching the US Dollar Index Did you notice we fell under the early September resistance? We are also retesting the 2022 fib level at 23.6. Would be nice to see it break down further to 107 and the 38.2 level. Increasing rumors of the Fed relaxing, and even pivoting. I have doubts about a pivot , but going a little quieter into the election...

1BigPapi

Looking at Bitcoin's performance against the M2 Money Supply, we are looking at Bitcoin around $13k when measured in 2017 terms. You can interpret this in different ways but recommend you monitor it, and also monitor how it performs as supply drops. The macro is leading markets but demand in this range, whether you call it $19k or $13k, is consistent. If the...

1BigPapi

Performance of major currencies against the US Dollar since March 2020. Some suggest the $DXY will reach 120 (historical precedence), but no one really knows. 120 is in the realm of possible. I suspect the rally continues until something breaks and the Fed relaxes. Even if inflation peaks, there will be additional hikes, and many of these competing currencies...

1BigPapi

For those wondering about the crypto rally: The European Central Bank (ECB) finally raised rates meaningfully. On Thursday they announced a 75 bp interest rate rise, taking its benchmark deposit rate to 0.75%. In response USD / DXY fell several %, BTC and EURO rallied. In general: -DXY down = BTC and EURO up -DXY up = BTC and EURO down

1BigPapi

I'm watching the Bitcoin support levels at the following prices, which would lead us to a higher low: ☙ $23.8k ☙ $23k ☙ $21.7k Losing $21.7k would be a breakdown in the uptrend market structure and lead to a retest of $20k, with the possibility of an extended drop into the teens. Assuming the uptrend remains intact, I'm looking for a retest of resistance...

1BigPapi

Bitcoin's gap towards $28k remains our greatest challenge of the past month, with 3 rejections now. On the other hand, the support is rising and we remain over the 200w MA. If we retrace, I'm looking at $21k. If we breakout I'm looking to rally towards an eventual $28k test. This week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reporting may inject some short term...