1BigPapi

1BigPapi

Since $25k/early May we remain above a rising support. Ideally we continue to respect it (around $29.5k today), but this volatility is remarkable at times with whales playing games swinging the market around; and the US Dollar Index ( DXY ) is showing a return to strength the past few days, adding bearish pressure to Bitcoin . The chart has key levels marked that...

1BigPapi

For those wondering about Bitcoin and it's recent moves - Lets recap May: We were moving within a symmetrical pattern since early May when dumped to $25k. In the weeks that followed we churned indecisively between the lower $30s and upper $20s, producing the triangle. Symmetrical patterns are challenging for analysts due to lack of a clear bias, and...

1BigPapi

Just noting on the simplest of patterns that Bitcoin broke from the symmetrical pattern it was in, flipped the resistance to support and (for now) but I take this with a grain of salt with the long holiday weekend in the US, there is an element of unknown going into the open tomorrow. If you are trading, just remember to use a stoploss and have a plan in case we...

1BigPapi

Looking at the macro "what-if" scenario for Bitcoin if bears continue to drive the market down below this key support level in the upper $20s. As noted in my last post, despite the US Dollar Index posting a retracement and equities a relief, Bitcoin and crypto markets continue to be pressured by bears and its important to have a plan in mind if we continue...

1BigPapi

Note: this isn't me saying this is going to happen, but its a possibility and worth consideration due to reasons I outline below: If we are looking at a strictly textbook pattern then the symmetrical triangle represents an equilibrium in the market, implying that a counter trend has not yet presented and statistically we should look for a continuation to the...

1BigPapi

BTCUSD approaching the end of three week pattern, bands squeezing, volume at its lowest in the pattern - implying volatility ahead with breakout; but near term indecision ahead of today's FOMC meeting minutes and ECB's report on Euro financial stability. From a pattern perspective you can see a possible ascending triangle, but know knowing how whales drive...

1BigPapi

BTC dominance at 45% and broke above the multi-year downtrend with a higher high for the first time since 2019 but will see if it can close at this level on the weekly to confirm; this typically precedes recovery to bull in time. Of note, this was the first cycle where the majority of time in the bear market Bitcoin dominance continued to trend down. This...

1BigPapi

US Dollar Index (DXY) trapped under the 102.3 resistance with Euro still in an uptrend in anticipation of European Central Bank (ECB) raising rates but biggest retracement since mid May. Today's report from the ECB on Euro zone financial stability or FOMC meeting minutes could impact the current EURUSD and DXY trajectories.

1BigPapi

Small update on the US Dollar Index. Not to say we are out of the woods here, but its nice to see the DXY drop a few % over the past week. There are a few factors driving this but it remains to be seen if it is a brief retracement on the way up, or a more sustained downtrend. Historically this range rejects DXY (it has on several occasions in recent decades),...

1BigPapi

We see DXy finally lead with a strong rejection. That doesn't mean its done climbing, there is still much uncertainty in terms of macro economic climate and this can have a profound effect on the US dollar. I'm watching the 2020 high (around 103) for the next retest; closing under that might suggest a larger drop, but respecting that support could indicate a brief...

1BigPapi

The question on everyone's mind is how long will it ride these blue channels, and where is the floor. I've done some analysis looking at momentum via TSI and there appears to be some subtle but growing bullish divergence on momentum, but it highly depends on a few factors like 1.) the CPI report; any Fed speeches or press releases in reference to inflation or...

1BigPapi

As noted in earlier analysis, there was a decision for the market between the yellow uptrend and the blue downtrend. The market is overwhelmingly leaning into the blue downtrend once again and we are likely to see a retest of this support level in the lower $30s.

1BigPapi

Lets see if this macro support extending from June 2021 holds, currently around $35.5k. If bulls can defend this range we might have some spicy green days coming. If they lose it, then lower $30s and upper $20s are the next targets for bears.

1BigPapi Updated 

Well the $DXY went from dumping yesterday on the FOMC news to pumping today on .. well who knows what. News of a weak Euro possibly? That said, there are still plenty of bearish divergences on momentum, and midst a range of HTF historical resistance for DXY. But if we break clear of this and continues the mad dash to the upside, it might spell some doom for...

1BigPapi

During the US Government's FOMC press conference we logged a 1% move on DXY, dropping to the previous support level between 102.4 and 102.5. That doesn't mean it can't/won't recover and rally more, but its not looking good in the near term as markets appear to believe the 0.5bp hike signals a weakening dollar. As with earlier FOMCs, if they don't like how the...

1BigPapi

I highlighted the major decision point in purple. This is where we see a retest of the macro support (dating back to 2020) and locally since early 2022. Its also a decision whether the blue downtrend from November or the more recent uptrend in 2022 will be the prevailing trend in coming weeks.

1BigPapi

While I am not a fully committed bear yet (but acknowledge things are pretty bearish these days), I still think a rally in coming weeks/months is possible -- BUT given the macroeconomic environment.. one should always have a plan for either direction.. so lets talk about bearish scenarios. Lets talk about a scenario where we lose the macro support (yellow...

1BigPapi

The purple circle represents a key support level, both locally and on the macro dating back to Q4 2020. That is a support extending from October 2020 to present. Its also the next step down in the purple downtrend that is the prevailing trend currently. Ideally if the macro market conditions stabilize, we retest that support and look for a bounce. Closing under...