7pasos

7pasos

In a still down sided trend the last days have pushed up deteriorating the bearish perspective for the USDJPY. mostly of this upside advances had been done in a very iliquid market and sorrounded by fundamental news about Sizo Abe taking or not steps towards the hike in the VAT. Yesterday ended the day forming a clear japanese candlestick signal named evening...

7pasos

Here we have the EURUSD 4h showing as well (yesterday talked about elliott) signals to a potential decline: 1) the failure to break above 1.3413 resistance (even could touch it) 2) the clear existance of a bearish momentum divergence evidenced by the AO 3) the potential formation (not completed yet) of a head and shoulders If the price complete the head and...

7pasos

First of all the 4th wave is extraordinary long but yet fits into the starting channell Then other thing that could seem rare but is not at all is the fact that the b wave extend beyond the start of wave a, we should remember that the structure of triangle determine the nature of itself as contracted or expanded due the AC relation, in this case as the triangle...

7pasos

I have few examples of triangles in this site, this is a good once example because its rareness. First of all the 4th wave is extraordinary long but yet fits into the starting channell Then other thing that could seem rare but is not at all is the fact that the b wave extend beyond the start of wave a, we should remember that the structure of triangle determine...

7pasos

The silver correction to the upside yesterday increased it's pace. Some what this is a kind (rare but possible) of alternation, is more common find the fast A and slow C but given the long and strong decline is understandable to find a dubitative A impulsive wave (taking then the shape of a leading diagonal) and be followed by a more decisive impulse taking...

7pasos

At a resistance level the USDCAD is expiriencing some loss of momentum showing a clear divergence in this up side rally. Then at the top of it, with the las friday decline the USDCAD is forming and could trigger a h&S. The other thing that attracts me more to this trade is the convergence of the projection of the head from the las friday close, exactly to the...

7pasos

As told you yesterday, the commodities thend to have more chances to show an extended 5th wave. In rise we saw the "fear factor" who trigger the coverage and therefore the vicious cicle of increase of prices then more coverage. Well to the sell part the extended 5th waves thend to be formed as the clearing houses increase the need of colateral when the price...

7pasos

The 5th waves extensions are more probable in commodities markets because the fear of rise of costs increase the coverage. By the other hand the 3rd wave extensions remains the more probable scenario for the impulsive waves in the direction of the main trend (impulses of impulses) because the 3rd waves is always the stronger one (not neccesary the longest but strongest).

7pasos

There are a few times when the context is not enough to discard a contrary wave count, and I think this is one of those. The expected wave count at this juncture is the expanded flat as possible wave a or w in what we expect be a consolidative 4th wave (if you change the time frame to daily can see that the wave count to the downside starts after a long timed...

7pasos

The EURJPY is showing by now a intention to form a candle pattern nowed as evening star and if today ends as looks now, will be a good signal because makes a lot of sense a reversal right here because: 1) after a 5 wave decline and a zigzag correction the pair is showing this reversal 2) the zigzag retracement have a nice 1 to 1 ratio between a and c waves 3) ...

7pasos

The leading diagonal is perhaps the most unstudied pattern under the elliott wave principle. Elliott never had a chance to see a diagonal big enough as to determine if all the patterns inside must be zigzags or only corrective ones, and under the leading diagonal the mistery is yet greater. Some recognized elliottist (under the classical aproach) define it as a 5...

7pasos

There is a guide that is named "the clear pattern" which is one where the very RN Elliott stressed at most. Under this guide, is that my actual elliott wave theory of the retrace produced after the long rally ended at the begining of August 2011 and completed at 28th november of 2011, is signaled as a motive patter nowed as leading diagonal and no as a zigzag...

7pasos

Once of the most often think that people ask is if elliott wave technique exclude the traditional technical analisys or viceversa, and the actual answer is no, both of them look at different patterns and them can coexist in the same chart. Here are a beautifull example: after a long 5 wave decline, a new upside stance has started. And at the very same time a...

7pasos

As you can see the Dollar index had been in a box price since 21:00 of last 25th July and the same price box is shown in EURUSD, GBPUSD AUDUSD, therefore until the dollar break out this price box with a decisive candle the best choice you have is to trade (if you find an opportunity) the range created by the price boxes in this 3 major pairs.

7pasos

Ending with this cycle dedicated to the japanese reversal patterns, that we have done this week let me show a chart of USDMXN in daily showing the concept of confirmation: Here we can find a Harami (not so good reversal) some what in the middle of nowhere, it was formed relatively far from the 76.4 fibo support and beyond the 61.8% retracement, but then after a...

7pasos

Even when the harami (a big body followed by a small body inside, thats call it pregnant) is one of the weakest 2 candles reversal signal when its formed at resistance levels gets more importance. In this chart the context offer this increassed meaning to the harami, because we have at least 3 resistance just at where the price seemed to stall the rally. If you...

7pasos

At the end of a Gartley extending 1 to 1 we find a bearish engulfing with a reasonable risk reward ratio to the initial support target. But could go to push even lower if the rythm of the actual upside trend continue at least for other similar gain. Supporting the bearish engulfing: 1) close below the last high (of the first impulse of the gartley to the...

7pasos

Given the context treated in previous elliott wave counts for the USDJPY we can see this evening star formed yesterday as a good entrance for a new trend with an initial risk reward pretty fair (for a minimum target of the latest support) but also could be great if you let some of the sell to continue running because we expect get lower than the 94's...