ABRAK75

ABRAK75

Let's keep it as simple as possible. The dollar's in a trading range with clearly-defined support and resistance levels. The market's currently trading in a non-optimal zone for anyone wishing to do long on the dollar. And for those wishing to short, while it may be feasible at current levels for a short-term strategy, you run the risk of seeing the market quickly...

ABRAK75

While the overall economic picture in the US is stable, there are several hints that investors are less optimistic about prospects for the future. The US Treasuries yield curve has flattened gradually since the end of last year (and significantly since the "taper tantrum" period in the second quarter of 2013). Just look at the spread between the 2-year and 10-year...

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Back in November, I suggested that we could see a short squeeze in the gold market if prices were to fall below $1080, followed by a sharp bounce at the start of 2016 (please see the related idea below for the original chart and analysis). While I had specifically indicated $1010-1020 as an ideal zone to watch for such a reveral, the market ended up bottoming at...

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Not a pair I'd like to trade, but I found this chart interesting. Prices are currently rebounding off the 61.8 retracement level drawn from May 2015's lows to last year's highs. A downward-sloping trend line can be drawn from December's lows, passing by those made in February. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the dollar bounce back up to the 0.97 mark, which...

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EM FX and commodities currencies are fairing pretty well since the start of the year, but market sentiment may change with the coming of the new quarter (market participants may focus more on the US during the second quarter with perhaps a realization that the first quarter slow down was temporary). On a technical basis, I see reason to be cautious on the AUD/USD...

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A few days ago, I posted a bullish scenario on the USD/CAD. Prices have fallen back to their annual lows, but I maintain my bullish stance on a technical basis ahead of the US NFPs (note: Canadian employment figures are scheduled for 8 April). Prices came close to hitting the 1.285 level yesterday before they erased the day's losses and finished the trading...

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Brent prices recently retreated after testing a long-term bearish trend line (only visible on log chart). Technicals currently favor a bearish bias below $42, which is a previous support level. Renewed selling pressure towards the quarter's close would expose $38 and $36 as short-term targets. A break above $42 would suggest a change in market dynamics, which...

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There was a significant "blowout" movement in USDCAD prices this past quarter, but I have a hard time changing my fundamental assessment that the Canadian dollar should remain overall weak against the greenback this year. Technical analysis currently supports a bullish hypothesis on this pair as prices recently rebounded on a long-term trend line. Note the...

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It's interesting to note that the USDBRL pair hasn't risen any further despite the route in the Brazilian bond market and the Fed rate hike this week. Of course, both were largely priced into the market. We're currently at one of those crossroads where fundamentals favor further US dollar strength against the Brazilian real whereas technical analysis suggests that...

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While I am still a dollar bull and don't yet see no fundamental signs to change that position, I can't help but notice a $80 technical zone that may provide gold support in 2016. I had already noted $1110-20 as a possible support (old resistance from 2008), but I only just realized that $1110 is the 50% retracement from the 1976 lows ($101) to 2011's highs...

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The chart speaks for itself. The Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index might try bouncing here at the start of the week ahead of US retail sales data on Wednesday. Without this trend line, prices are really in the middle of a range, meaning that anything can happen here depending on this weeks economic data.

ABRAK75

USD/CAD has fallen quite sharply since the beginning of the month, and prices are pulling back towards some technical levels that may provide support this week. Watch for signs of selling fatigue to set in around 1.2800/70. Note the daily RSI fairly close to 30 in a prevailing uptrend (this is just complementary info). If prices do bounce like I'm expecting,...

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$55/barrel should be followed closely this week as Brent prices are currently in a technically strategic zone for swing traders. Even though oil prices are likely to remain suppressed while the global economy adjusts (new equilibrium in supply and demand), I have the sense that those who call for $20/barrel in the WTI market are too aggressive and are likely...

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I just wrote about the gold/silver ratio and how it's suggesting a possible new cycle in the silver market (see suggested idea below). To further develop this hypothesis, I find that silver prices are at an important crossroad following last week's rally. The US dollar's sharp fall following the week September US employment data has given relief to battered...

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The Gold/Silver ratio is currently suggesting that silver might outperform gold if commodities continue to rise. I'm basing this mostly on the recent price action in the GC1!/SI1! ratio as signs of fatigue have appeared just below a long-term channel resistance. Note that silver prices alone successfully held the 2014 lows at $14. Those who are aggressively...

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We're still left with a lot of uncertainty as to when, and if, the Fed might tighten. While a rate hike in October or December isn't off the table, it could easily be pushed to the beginning of 2016. This depends on how US and Chinese data appears going into the end of the year as well as how stock markets perform, as any additional volatility spike could...

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Here's a chart that I find really interesting. I only now realized that the failure below $1.17 three weeks ago shows up at a pullback on a historical trend line that the euro break back in January. I would like to wait for the FOMC statement this week and see if this chart can help continue justifying a long-term bearish bias on EURUSD. Right now, I see an upside...

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The EUR/GBP cross is currently in a technical position that I'm not very comfortable with. On one hand, prices remain in a long-term downtrend explained by monetary policy divergences between the BoE and the ECB. But on the other hand, the euro has been recently bid in despite of Mario Draghi's recent talk of expanding/prolonging the ECB's current QE program. The...