ABRAK75

ABRAK75

Yesterday I published a chart suggesting upside potential for the DJ-FXCM US Dollar Index (see related idea below). The support I proposed didn't really hold (but it didn't really invalidate the overall bullish idea either). I have redrawn my chart and currently see a bullish flag formation. I'm bullish above 11,940 points and am anticipating a run all the way...

ABRAK75

***No trading strategy is proposed here, I just wish to share a chart that I caught my eye today. I don't follow individual stocks much on a daily basis, but I couldn't help noticing this multi-year resistance on FB. Technicals suggest that prices might establish a medium-term top below $90 (they may rise back up to test the resistance mind you).

ABRAK75

EURUSD seems to be in a wedge right now, and prices are currently testing a horizontal resistance level at $1.112. I wrong wrong yesterday in thinking the dollar might bounce following the FOMC minutes (see the related idea on the USDOLLAR below), but the wedge here makes me think that shorting the euro might end up a decent play today. I'll be watching this setup...

ABRAK75

The Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index has been consolidating for the past 24 hours ahead of the FOMC minutes later today, and recent price action suggests a triangle formation that may be used for trading major currency pairs. There's a decent support at 11,965 points that currently supports a bullish biais on the greenback. This means that the euro bounce initiated...

ABRAK75

***Most people will refrain from trading the NZDCHF due to increased margin requirements since January on top of the structurally-large spread on such a cross. The technicals of the NZD/CHF are really interesting right now as prices have bottomed out since the end of last week with a daily support at 0.626. The SNB has once again intervened in the Swiss Franc...

ABRAK75

The kiwi dollar has fallen for 11 straight weeks against the US dollar (12 for the British pound), and I have the vague feeling that we may see the NZD/USD initiate a corrective bounce starting this week. Prices gapped downward to hit $0.6641 last night and are currently trading at $0.6697. I'm waiting to see how the US dollar performs with the return of North...

ABRAK75

The GBP/NZD cross has staged an impressive 12-week rally, the second half of which has mostly been through selling pressure on the NZD following the RBNZ's recent rate cut decision. The daily chart is currently suggesting a downside risk as the RSI is starting to form a negative divergence. This divergence still has to be confirmed, and a daily close below 2.218...

ABRAK75

With EURUSD below a long-term trend line at $1.143, I'm currently interested in a bullish dollar setup for the end of the month. The reason why EURUSD has reached higher this past week is due to the dollar's weakness, but I think this is a fake move. The Dollar Index has a major support level at 93 points, which I expect will allow for a new dollar bounce starting...

ABRAK75

Two weeks ago, I presented a bullish case for the German Bund (www.cfdtrading.com). Prices have since bounced on a long-term trend line at 148.50 are are currently testing a resistance at the 152 level. If this resistance (daily Kijun) breaks, this could be a new bullish signal. Depending on how the euro and European equities trade, my targets will be at 153 and...

ABRAK75

The Spanish IBEX 35 index tested the 10,660 handle twice this week, once on Tuesday and again on Thursday. The double bottom on the monthly Tenkan can be interpreted as being bullish and makes me think that the market has completed its corrective phase initiated back in April. If European equities markets start rallying into the end of the month, the third quarter...

ABRAK75

EURJPY has failed to break above its 140.50 resistance this week, and recent price action suggests the beginning of a bearish reversal with a trend line established from last year's highs. I think we'll see a fall back to 138 next week. If the euro gets hit hard in the coming weeks, I believe that a target at 133 would be reasonable for the first half of July.

ABRAK75

The euro has come under pressure in the past couple of hours with fears over a bank run in Greece. I currently have the impression that a swing high is in place, and a break below $1.13 today would suggest a fall back to $1.12 early next week. Such a reversal may also open up a medium-term target of $1.105 depending of course on how the Greek drama plays out next...

ABRAK75

The German DAX index seems to be giving the first indication of a bullish reversal today. A double bottom above the 10,800 handle is currently under way on FXCM's GER30 CFD, and this corresponds with a Fibonacci confluence as shown in my chart. It's definitely too early to be sure that a base has been established, but I think the technicals suggest a bullish...

ABRAK75

The Federal Reserve indicated yesterday that further improvements in employment data need to be seen before raising rates. While non-farm payrolls have been quite solide in the past couple of months, there is indeed a risk that the Fed holds rates steady in September if this summer's employment data disappoints. Given the fall in industrial production since the...

ABRAK75

While the euro has fallen a bit against the yen and the pound today, the dollar's weakness has limited the downside risk in EURUSD. If the dollar ends up rebounding following May's US retail sales data on Thursday, we may very well see the euro fall back to $1.12 or even below given the long term trend line that's currently being tested (it comes in at around...

ABRAK75

The sharp rise in sovereign yields in Europe has taken a lot of people by surprise, and the sentiment in the market is more and more bearish as people are starting to believe Bill Gross's "short of a century" statement made two months ago. We should all be asking ourselves if it's reasonable to expect yields to keep rising over the long term as the ECB will...

ABRAK75

The euro has risen significantly against the US dollar these past couple of weeks, and prices are reaching a key resistance level around $1.153 (February's highs). A long-term trend line comes in at around the same level, which makes me believe that shorting EURUSD will be again possible starting next week. If indeed this is the case, we would need to see the US...

ABRAK75

The TNX is currently testing its 200-DMA, which seems to be at the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is very interesting as market participants are waiting for the non-farm payrolls data on Friday. A daily close above the 200-DMA following the NFPs would suggest a reversal in interest rates for the weeks ahead (which people are already...