ABRAK75

ABRAK75

The French CAC 40 is pulling back towards trendline + range support at 5,120/40 points today, and price action during the US session this afternoon should determine the market's trend for the rest of the week. A bullish reaction on the support would suggest a bounce back up to the 5,260 handle while a break below 5,120 could validate a double top. I'd prefer...

ABRAK75

The aussie-yen cross tested a trend-line resistance at 93.30 yens Friday, and price action before the week's close suggests renewed selling pressure starting on Monday. 91.80 and 90.80 seem like plausible targets for short positions below 93.30. If the TL resistance breaks, however, I'd be rather bullish with an initial target of 94.50 given that prices are...

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At the beginning of the month, I wrote about a potential double top on the NZDCAD cross (in French : bit.ly). It's way too early to confirm, but the recent weakness in the NZD suggests that the kiwi dollar may continue to lose ground while the CAD benefits from the bounce in oil prices as well as the rise in inflation in Canada. There is a big risk ahead with the...

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The NZDUSD is testing a medium-term trend line at $0.773, and it the risk/reward ratio is particulary attractive on the short side of the market with stops just above $0.776 and bearish targets at $0.76, $0.74 and $0.72$. REnewed selling pressure depends more on the US dollar right now, but the NZD could come under pressure if the RBNZ hints at a rate decrease...

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I've been bullish on European equities since the start of the year (my French readers on DailyFX.fr know this), but I'm starting to think that these markets might start to consolidate. I'm not sure if the timing is right (I'd prefer around the end of the month with the FOMC meeting on the 29th), but I've just noticed a potential negative divergence on the daily...

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People are starting to talk about the Russian ruble again after 3 months of practically no chatter on the Twittersphere following the December RUB crisis. Amazingly, the ruble is one of the best currencies in 2015. Given the poor fundamentals in the Russian economy, I'm starting to become a bit skeptical on the potential for further USDRUB losses over the medium...

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The British Pound has really underperformed for the past couple of weeks, partly due to the Bank of England's dovish stance after slashing its inflation forecasts in February. But part of the pound's recent weakness is most likely due to the upcoming general elections in the UK (7 May). I tend to think that all those speculative shorts will end up leading to the...

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The 50-day Disparity Index shows a hidden divergence on the EURUSD that has formed over the past 2 months. It's easy to say that the euro's bearish trend is strengthening ever since the high made at $1.103 on Monday, but it's important to highlight the fact that the presence of such a bearish divergence will likely lead to a break of March's lows ($1.046) with...

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The EURCAD cross is clearly bearish below 1.375, and renewed selling pressure would suggest a fall back to the 1.337 support. The daily RSI is also below a key resistance level. The current levels are attractive for short strategies with stops above 1.375 and a take profit at 1.339.

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I'm overall bullish on the USDCAD (and have been since the end of 2012), but I see downside risk on this pair during the second quarter. 1.28 is a major resistance level that has held since January, and without a monthly break above this level in April, we might just see a correction lower in the coming months. I've noted a negative divergence in the weekly RSI...

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The USDOLLAR is looking pretty bullish this afternoon (morning still in the US) after the inflation and manufacturing sector data published earlier today. Technicals seemed to suggest a risk of further declines in the US dollar against currencies like the euro, the yen and the Australian dollar. But the support seen here (11,880 points) clearly is holding with the...

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Last year, I wrote about a possible DAX-Gold ratio technical breakout to anticipate for 2015 (see related idea below). As of last month, this breakout is underway, signaling that the DAX should continue to outperform gold (in EUR terms). This is pretty impressive given that gold in euro terms rallied over 20% in January (but has fallen since). This chart suggests...

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Since the summer of 2013, I've maintained a bearish stance on the EURGBP cross as I correctly anticipated the central bank divergence theme (article in French : bit.ly). Back in December, I indicated that this pair could reach £0.72 with a break of the 2012 lows. This target is almost reached, and I will be watching the euro for the first signs of a corrective...

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The precious metals markets are looking pretty bullish right now, and I think that platinum might have set in a major base at $1150 in February. It's still too early to determine whether or not the down trend in place since last July is over, but technicals are telling me that a long term low might be established if all metals rally in March. The risk/reward ratio...

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Gold prices are likely bottoming after having retraced a big chunk of the January rally this month. Looking at the XAUUSD chart over the past two and a half years, prices have started to bounce off an old bearish trend line that was broke through at the start of the year. There's also a bullish trend line coming in at the $1190 level. Technicals suggest that a...

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While other precious metals are in clear down trends since mid-2011, the palladium market has always remains well-bid thanks in part to its relative rareness and the fact that it has similar industrial qualities as that of platinum at a lesser cost. Looking at the long term chart of palladium futures, I get the sense that this metal is getting ready to rally this...

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A lot of traders have taken interest in the AUDNZD cross since 2014 as prices have reached a level around 1.04/05 that's held firm since 1979. While we may see another bounce off 1.035 in the coming days, recent price action suggests a risk of diving further towards multi-year lows before a true bottom can take shape. Looking at a monthly chart over the past 16...

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The AUDCHF cross has caught my eye because prices started rebounding off their 2011 lows after the SNB event in January. The fundamentals remain bearish given the Swiss franc's strength and the RBA's monetary policy. The technicals suggest however that this pair could hold above 0.63 CHF with a long-term channel support around this level. This is definitely...