AccuTrade2000

AccuTrade2000

The case well explains how to combine Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis, not only to avoid potential false signals but also to enter trades more confidently.

AccuTrade2000

A respectable outcome for January job creation with fewer than feared downward revisions to historical data have cemented expectations that the Fed will not be cutting rates imminently. There are still lingering concerns about the quality of jobs being added, but an improving trend in jobs creation since late summer means the Fed will hold rates until 3Q.

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The European Central Bank will publish its staff revision on the neutral rate today. President Christine Lagarde said last week that r-star is “a range that does not give a guideline or a destination” and Olli Rehn added yesterday that “we should not constrain our freedom of action because of a theoretical concept”. That said, with the next couple of cuts not...

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The dollar’s bearish momentum has eased into today’s US jobs release. Most of the tariff shock from last weekend has been absorbed, and markets are also probably reconsidering the optimism on a US-China deal. Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs are due to come into effect on Monday, and the chances of a de-escalation before then have decreased. Also helping the dollar...

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The elephant in the room The focal point of late has undoubtedly been US President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian goods shipped to the US. A 25% universal tariff rate would be troublesome for the Canadian economy—despite the exemption for energy products. But it would also have a notable stagflationary effect on the US—making it an expensive strategy for...

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The dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant. That could more than offset some safe-haven flows on the back of souring China sentiment. In the eurozone, we’ll watch the ECB’s new estimate for the neutral rate. Central banks in CEE maintain a hawkish tone but rates diverge.

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GBP-USD edged lower ahead of the BoE meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp with markets expecting a 100% probability of a rate cut. The BoE members are expected to vote in a 8-1 split with Catherine Mann favoring no change. While the outcome should not have a material impact for GBP, risks remain that the board members vote for...

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USD-JPY moved sideways ahead of President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba’s meeting. The JPY has held on to its gains from yesterday, and notably, it has been the best performing currency in the G-10 space this week. The overnight comments by BoJ board member Naoki Tamura also helped, as he flagged the need for more interest rate hikes (Bloomberg). Some...

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The Bank Of England's trade-weighted sterling index has rallied 1.7% since the middle of January. The recovery from the gilt-triggered January sell-off has undoubtedly been helped by the rally in US Treasuries. Additionally, the recent focus on tariffs has been a EUR/GBP negative, with the UK less exposed and the UK perhaps even being granted a tariff exemption...

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One wild card for EUR/USD this year is what happens in Ukraine. Yesterday the FX market took note of the further rise in Ukraine's hard currency bonds, amid optimism that negotiations could bring a potential peace deal closer. Reports that the US will unveil a peace plan at next week's Munich security conference, in addition to signs that both countries’ leaders...

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The BoJ has made it clear that the path of wages growth is central to its decision process on the timing and scale of monetary adjustment. The December data bolster the case for more hikes, and the JPY also had the added help from weaker equity markets overnight.

AccuTrade2000

The BoJ has made it clear that the path of wages growth is central to its decision process on the timing and scale of monetary adjustment. The December data bolster the case for more hikes, and the JPY also had the added help from weaker equity markets overnight.

AccuTrade2000

Time to exit Intraday short term trade here. How daily close is very important. (100 day and 200 day avareage)

AccuTrade2000

We stick to our call that EUR/USD will start to lose support once crossing 1.040, as the euro remains broadly unattractive from a macro fundamental perspective and Trump has indicated that the EU should be next on the tariff list. A EUR:USD two-year swap rate gap at -185bp is a mirror of that – via the monetary policy channel – and a key disincentive to chase...

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Labour cash earnings rose more than expected in December and the November figures were all revised upwards. If Shunto results are as strong as last year's, we expect the Bank of Japan to hike by 25 basis points as early as May.

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Japan labour earnings data surprised the market significantly to the upside recording the largest rises in nearly 27 years at 4.8% YoY. Importantly, real wages growth has been positive for the second consecutive month and was up 0.6% YoY. Investors and the BoJ will be keenly watching the Shunto or spring wage negotiations in the coming two months. The Japanese...

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Looking at the implications of Trump’s handling of the Mexico and Canada tariff threat, sentiment in the eurozone has improved on the back of expectations that a deal can be struck and protectionism averted. Still, extra caution is warranted in this sense. If part of Trump’s motive to delay tariffs on US neighbours was domestic backlash for potential immediate...

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The USD has emerged as one of the best performing currencies after risk aversion spiked in the immediate aftermath of the tariff announcements by the Trump administration over the weekend. Market sentiment has been improving somewhat since then, however, on the back of investor hopes that the announcements were part of President Donald Trump’s negotiation tactics....