AdvancedPlays

AdvancedPlays

RTY has had a couple of down trend breaks in a row now as it builds strength heading into FOMC. Really nice break and retest on both trendlines shown here, great long opportunity this morning. I would expect RTY to rally into FOMC unless it breaks back below the trendline where I may look for shorts on a retest. To the upside I have two supply zones, final target...

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AAPL gapped down today and is sitting right around an ascending trendline that started at the April low. AAPL has been trending up ever since, but is threatening to break that uptrend now and has been in a downtrend for the past 2 months. A break below would likely lead to a move back to the $200 area. For a bounce, I'd be targeting the gap that was created today...

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VX just broke above a bull flag on the 4hr, but not much of a reaction yet. I don't often trade VX directly, but I think it's important to be cautious longing equities while this is having a bullish breakout. If it fails and can't hold 16.45 that should be a green light for bulls.

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SPX came roaring back once again after the drop in the first week of September, much like August. The question now is do we get another rejection or a new ATH? I believe we'll find out soon enough as we have one of the most anticipated FOMC decisions in years this week. We've seen some extreme volatility since the beginning of August and I expect it to continue....

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QQQ had a small rejection off of a descending trendline from ATH last week and closed slightly below. We also have an uptrend from early August to make up the bottom line of the triangle. I see this as more of a neutral pattern, but it is at the top end and threatening to breakout above for now. First upside target would be ATH and then it's a blue sky setup so...

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Third bull flag in a row, they're everywhere right now. This one is a little different than RKT and Silver IMO because it's a tech stock. I'm not convinced tech is going to be bullish after this week, but if NFLX breaks out of this bull flag and makes a new ATH I'd have to expect more upside after. This started developing during the first week of August so it may...

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Silver is another interest rate sensitive ticker with a bullish pattern heading into next week's fed decision. It has a nice bull flag on the 1D. It did have a fakeout below, but the lower trendline is still being respected and it closed at the top end of the flag last week. If it breaks above, I'd expect continuation to at least 32.50. Final target will be...

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This is part 2 for the RKT trade idea this week. This is nearly the exact same setup we see on the 4hr, but it's on the 15m. If we get a break to the upside, first target will be the trendline from the bull flag on the 4hr. Final target would be around the 21.28 mark, a previous swing high which is at the top of this bull flag. You can play this smaller time...

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It's no secret that the fed is planning to cut rates this week, although unclear on how big of a cut. Either way. RKT is sensitive to interest rates and has seen some strong momentum as rate cut expectations have risen. I'd be careful trading around FOMC and this week may be prone to fakeouts. However, the chart is currently bullish in addition to the fundamental...

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BTC finally broke above the 58k area after several days of consolidation. Now we have a bull flag forming here on the 15m. First upside target is supply above near 61k, followed by the final target projected using the length of the flag pole.

10:47

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A recap of this week's action, very nice rally but coming back up near ATH now. We have a highly anticipated FOMC minutes release next week along with Powell speaking. We should see some fireworks, we've already had plenty this week. For now I'm trying to reserve judgement until we see the reaction, but I can't help but remain bearish despite the recent rally.

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I don't use fib retracement levels much, but when we get a big move up or down I've found they can be quite useful for determining where a pullback or rally may reverse. We just had a great example of how you can use these retracement levels for practical trading purposes. ES and NQ both sold off in early August before retracing the entire move shortly after....

11:06

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Some analysis for the S&P, most things are looking bullish obviously after the big bounce yesterday. Nothing has changed for me on the overall short thesis, but for now I don't think it's a good idea to keep trying to jump in front of a moving train. We'll see where things end up settling out after FOMC.

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SNOW is sitting right on the previous all time low from 2022 after a brief move below. SNOW also has a nice downtrend that could lead to a big breakout above. SNOW has been deciding what it wants to do at 112 since early August and it should end up with a decent move when it chooses. A longer term upside target would be the gap fill all the way up around 133,...

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TSLA is setting up for a triple top here on the 15m which could lead to a hard rejection. We're also sitting right on the major downtrend line from ATH in 2021. TSLA already tried to breakout above this trendline earlier in the year, but failed miserably. I'm thinking we may have a repeat here, but this 226 area is my line in the sand. I think we'll end up with a...

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QQQ is testing a trendline that has held since late August now. Small rejection so far, we may bounce shortly and end up breaking out above. If not, I'd expect a big failure here. I think this will determine direction for the next few days at least. If bears can't hold it here, there's not much stopping us from squeezing back up to 486. I still favor downside for...

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This is a zoomed in 15m chart, but these levels go back starting in May. That's where the trendline began that we broke below and could retest soon. In addition to that trendline, we would also have the 555 level that should be near the area where we retest the trendline if it happens. SPY still has a ways to go and one important level to break before it gets...

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Nice move back up today after the morning drop for NVDA and all of NQ. NVDA may come all the way back up to 118-119 to fill the gap from last week. I'd expect a failure there and will be looking for puts targeting the trendline below along with 110-109.