SPY quickly broke out of its downtrend and even broke out above a bear flag that had been forming. We had a low volume week last week, but SPY closed strong, pushing all the way back up to $520. It's wild to look at where SPY is now considering what the market was like just a few weeks ago. Bears get squeezed once again. I have a lot of suspicions about this...
ES moved up slowly last week on unusually low volume. It had been forming an ascending wedge, which would normally be bearish, but this time it broke out above. I'm skeptical of this move due to the volume, but as long as it can maintain above this wedge and/or 5200, I think a rally back into supply at 5300 is likely. We'll have to wait and see if that ends up...
NQ had a nice rally this morning, but quickly rejected after consumer sentiment and some fed speakers. I thought it would hold above 18240 on a retest, but it hasn't so far. If it can't reclaim, it will most likely head back towards 18k.
This is kind of a messy looking chart, I don't usually like to have this many lines. What I'm trying to illustrate is that VX has been slowly stair stepping down in a pretty controlled manner. I was surprised to see this morning's rally fail with VX doing this, but there is just no momentum or volume this week. Not sure what to make of all of it. The low volume...
TNX just bounced off the bottom end of its ascending channel and formed an inverse H&S while doing so. Kind of scary looking for bulls.
Gold recently sold off after falling below its ascending wedge, but looks ready to make a recovery after breaking above a descending trendline. I'd expect upside from here, or a retest of the trendline before moving higher.
RTY just had a nice rally and appears to be consolidating for another move higher.
YM just had a nice breakout and retest from a descending wedge/channel. Now it looks like it's flagging for another leg higher.
VX is near all time lows, had a nice rejection today off the 14.05 level which has sparked a rally. I wouldn't want to be shorting SPY or anything else until this gains some more strength. It had been slowly grinding down in a stair stepping manner which usually means it's going to continue.
SPY has been ripping through all resistance levels since bottoming out in April. VX continues to decay. We're not getting much volume and conditions have been choppy, but if SPY can break yesterday's high and hold on a retest, we could see a rally back to $520.
TNX has been rising, but it's forming an ascending channel that could lead to a bearish break below. Currently sitting near the bottom end of the channel. The jobless claims from today should push this lower as traders anticipate rate cuts starting in September.
ES has broken above a bearish ascending wedge pattern on the 4hr. It failed to sustain above yesterday, but has recovered today so far. If it manages to keep going, I'll be looking to long on any pullbacks that tap the top end of the wedge.
ARM had a big gap down after earnings, but has managed to hold above the bottom end of the bear flag so far.
NQ has been chopping as of late with ES, but looks like it has a chance to breakout soon. I have to expect the range will hold until it doesn't, but here's some paths if it happens.
I'd expect ES to be relatively flat after we didn't get much of a reaction to jobless claims. It's been chopping for several days and I have no reason to believe it will break today, but if it does breakout here are some paths.
QM has been trading in a descending channel since breaking down below its previous ascending channel. There's too much speculation about tensions in the middle east and elsewhere to take any big chances on this IMO, so it's best to wait for a break and retest, whether it is to the downside or the upside.
There's a lot of bears out there right now calling for a crash, and I thought we'd have continued downside as well after seeing VX break out of its major downtrend it has been in since 2022. However, in classic fashion VX hard failed within a few days and ES has already recovered a lot of the losses within a few weeks. VX has continued to weaken since the market...
In addition to my 1D bull flag chart, here's my 4hr chart. Trendline galore.