AndyM

AndyM

One of the properties of extended waves 5 is that they start really slow. The disbelief in the nascent uptrend is so strong that the counter-trend sentiment just keeps rising as the trend develops and matures. Only toward the middle of the trend the public begins to realize that something's wrong.. and then all happens.

AndyM

The downtrend will take a few months, will take EURUSD to 0.75, USDJPY to ~100. At the same 10Y treasuries will get to 10-12%, SPX will crash to 1500, USDRUB will reach 250+. Crude will revisit single digits.

AndyM

0.707 fib, very clean ABC in the downtrend. Smells reversal.

AndyM

USDJPY still has one leg up to go until it hits 142.5...146. The sole objective of FX market over the last 15 years was to push EURJPY up, and this little upswing in USDJPY is the last attempt to move it higher by a few pips, before both EURUSD and USDJPY crash down together, dispatching EURJPY to below 88. All of this is supposed to happen in H2'23.

AndyM

The Turkish Lira will lose at least another 50% of its value this year. USDTRY at 50 is not impossible, actually very realistic. Because Extended wave 5, baby...

AndyM

The triangle within wave 4 has ended. Either today, or on May 3rd. What will happen next has never happened before. The crash in Treasuries in extended wave 5 is scheduled for H2 - the time when 10Y will definitely hit above 10%, dragging the entire market as low as SPX 1000...1500. The closest analogy to the coming crash is 1929. But remember - the crash of...

AndyM

There will be an overwhelming amount of events happening in H2'23: - A crash in Treasuries (10Y above 10%) - A crash in EURUSD (0.75 is waiting) - A totally unexpected move in USDJPY to 100 - A crash in SPX below 1500 - A crash in RTS to 250..300 - A silent withdrawal of financing of Ukraine by US and EU - Peace talks RU <> UA on Russian's terms

AndyM

4300 has been hit. The uptrend potential is depleting rapidly as the bullish sentiment turns critically high. I wouldn't hold longs at the moment. The downtrend will start developing in the next few weeks. Where this will lead in H2'23 - nobody ever has seen anything like that in the markets.

AndyM Updated 

A good bullish last week of May should be expected. Lots of potential in individual stocks (DB, TSLA - all going to wipe out shorts, as usual). Good remaining uptrend in EURJPY. Treasuries may bounce a bit. SPX still going up, 4300 is realistic.

AndyM

Treasuries are falling and nobody seems to care. The comparison to the Titanic is very valid. That scene from the movie, when the ship has already hit an iceberg, the engines brought to a halt, but the rich kids just keep playing with chunks of ice on the upper deck. Close-up on a bar table.. and a glass of whisky slides off, falls on the deck and breaks into...

AndyM

We need to see a very powerful move in USDJPY that would mark the end of the upward correction.

AndyM

The move to 4300 should be very fast - a few days.

AndyM

The triangle is now 100% completed, and wave 5 is imminent. And nobody seems to care. As it should be.

AndyM

The weakening of the Euro agains the dollar begins. But at the same time, we'll see the weakening of the Euro against all other xUSD pairs.

AndyM

Triangles in wave 4 often yield powerful waves 5 that almost always take less that 50% of the time spent in wave 4. We spent 6.5 months in Wave 4, which means that wave 5 should be completed by end of August at the latest. Conservatively, I forecast 10Y reaching 10% by end Sept. In fact, it can happen as early as mid. July. Not only 10Y Treasuries gets to 10%,...

AndyM

I am not kidding at all about 10Y at 10%. Three months from now 10Y will get there in an extended wave 5, and short term yields will spike to 15-20%.

AndyM

The triangle continues to evolve, and is not finished yet. Ideally I would like to see one last upswing to 108...109, and then the triangular wave 4 will be completed. The completion of wave 4 is what separates the calm from the true storm. The crash of Treasuries in wave 5 will produce a worldwide market crash not even comparable to those of 1929, 1987, 2000, or 2008.

AndyM

1.3440 must be hit, but might retest 1.3400 as well.