ArcadiaTrading

10:29

ArcadiaTrading

- PPI data came in better then expected increasing the likelihood of a pause to 50-60% - XLF gapped down new lows but closed around cash open area, meaning there wasnt a lot of bear follow through after the gap down. The first sign bulls want to see is XLF holding its lows and start to bounce or even just going sideways is good for tech bulls. Bears want to see...

10:28

ArcadiaTrading

- CPI data came in expected today, excpet core is 0.1% hotter market didn't really care since we need something really hot to not get a 0.25bps - PPI data likely will come in expected as well today, since CPI was pretty aligned so technical matter more now - SPX came close to 200 MA today rejected the 3940 area but QQQ is above 200 MA - QQQ and SPX reject...

06:02

ArcadiaTrading

- CPI data tomorrow will likely determine if we can break that triple top on QQQ - money rotating around today to tech sectors no a complete FEAR day where money is leaving the market. - KRE / XLF ETF needs to bounce for SPY to bounce - 0.25bp current priced in at 62%, and a pause at 38% - if we break that triple, im looking for a daily bounce and would liking...

06:13

ArcadiaTrading

- UNG NG BOIL have retraced over 50% fib of the A to B move from the bottom, that's a clear sign that we will likely get an equilibrium base on how significant these swings are. - NG has a tendency to break a resistance and have no follow through vice versa breaking a support and have no follow through so im looking for a equilibrium tightening up price action...

13:48

ArcadiaTrading

- Very notable drop in the last 3 days for all sectors. Most important factor to remember is always following the trend and dont try to fight against it. Even though today there was a lot of opportunity in both direction it was quite a choppy day. - I mentioned yesterday any pop bullish on premarket data will be a good short for all sectors and i will be getting...

05:40

ArcadiaTrading

- QQQ double topped with Tuesday top, had a 15m bull flag during consolidation with no red flags until mid morning. - XLF increasing bear volume with zero bounce and very notable big money exiting. Fear creeped into the market - VIX up 20% - QQQ went from lead bull to bear when all sectors starting to drop at the same time after XLFs huge drop. dragging SPY...

05:42

ArcadiaTrading

- After this mornings hourly bear flag with no follow through from bears bulls try to play defense and we had a megaphone pattern play out in the morning. - QQQ was holding SPY up for the entire day, then the last 30mins bear sectors in SPY joined Bull sector QQQ. - need to confirm a hourly uptrend to set the daily higher low for bulls. - would like to see...

05:30

ArcadiaTrading

After breaking 12 EMA 15min time frame yesterday bears have been suing it for full control underneath it. - at this price point SPY retraced over 60% QQQ retraced 50%. Burden is on the bulls to step up here. Bear still comfortable - if QQQ start dropping more than 50% retracement everything will start favoring the bears - Jerome Powell spoke today and now...

06:51

ArcadiaTrading

Last week i mentioned the 15m 12 EMA guide for holding onto profits for both SPY and QQQ which we bounced off again this morning. After we broke the 15m 12EMA today i took a day trade on SQQQ and sold it close to the end of the day because we are still in a strong hourly uptrend and I do not want to hold overnight playing countertrend. Notes: - still need to...

07:35

ArcadiaTrading

Last weeks NG video i mentioned that this is likely a climax bottom and we are heading higher with potential inverse H&S pattern, it ended up playing out in the hourly time frame and bulls were a lot stronger than i expected. - Looking at the 4h time frame 12 EMA as full bull control support if we don't lose it then we wont be getting 4h and daily consolidation...

09:52

ArcadiaTrading

A deep technical analysis as to why I took profit on my 8000 shares of TQQQ and some mistakes I made on my trade that I could of done better. - Also what to look for on Monday, Monday is likely a buying the dip opportunity day for the next move up on SPY and QQQ, i explained what we should be looking for to be buying in again. - the weekly higher low is set and...

03:50

ArcadiaTrading

Yesterday I talked about how bears had no follow though at market open and bulls took over after we broke above resistance and that we will very likely get another bull move today higher. - Both SPY & QQQ were trending on the 12 EMA super strong and did not break below it at all - bull 100% comfortable holding their positions throughout the entire day with zero...

03:11

ArcadiaTrading

Yesterday i talked about 3 scenarios where one of them was we break below the double bottom support at 290 area for QQQ and bears have no follow through and we V shape. Essentially its exactly what happened bears had a nice overnight drop and pre-market control, the moment market opened bulls took over filled the gap within the first 30minutes. - Red flag for...

02:35

ArcadiaTrading

We have been trading in range since last Friday, i am looking for volatility to come in very soon either tomorrow or Friday after we have been tightening up for some time. I am sightly more bullish because i am looking for a weekly higher low, if this isn't the weekly higher low i would get stopped out with a small loss at these levels as now we have a clear...