AssetDesign

AssetDesign

stocks follow money supply. That's all there is to it.

AssetDesign Updated 

Undoubtedly, most are bearish and I also am as just the pure interest rate situation would require that market prices adjust lower. But I started the year off with a bullish outlook and need to add some calls here this morning, just in case we did complete wave 4 and are headed higher in a wave 5 move.

AssetDesign Updated 

Could be just error, but a break below the channel line would be a significant trend change. Now to be ignored as valuations based on interest changes show SPY should be 10% lower

AssetDesign Updated 

Looking like a corrective wave 4 with yet another wave up to complete this longer term B wave.

AssetDesign Updated 

testing the morning's high. Sold the last of my calls and now have a bunch of cheap puts (weren't so cheap when I bought them ;-) ) Still thinking about an earlier post I wrote valuing the SP with the higher interest rates. 405 seemed the likely target. That's how I'm playing it now into October.

AssetDesign

Looking for trendlines or corrections seem to be folly. Just look at the last couple of centuries. Seems that market timing, looking for corrections, it's all folly. The market is never going to correct in a meaningful way.

AssetDesign

Played around with simple Present Value calculations and calculating with a higher interest rate. All other things being equal, SPY should be priced at 405. Assuming we are in the end of a B wave for an A-B-C correction wave

AssetDesign

Really felt this morning that the early pop was a last gasp and shifted to a bear posture. Failing to get back into the up channel is pretty telling. Next stop under 430.

AssetDesign Updated 

Alcoa is such a mystery to me. On one hand, I want to add to an already heavily hedged long position but looking at the general downtrend and the recent consolidation here, I'm wondering if AA is destined for another leg down, that might bring prices to 25 or even 17. I keep thinking that whenever I want to add to my AA position, I should buy Nucor instead but...

AssetDesign

Appears that price is in a wave 3 impulsive wave. Should it break through the overhead resistance just below 245, stock could have a long way to run. Not to mention that it has been a buyout target and will benefit significantly from higher oil prices. It also pays out a variable dividend based on quarterly performance.

AssetDesign Updated 

If this recent move proves to be an A-B-C correction, then some cheap puts are in order here. I bought some Jan 25 Puts. I also hold a BAC covered call position for Jan 35. So I am also acting to ensure protection against potential downside that can drop price into the low 20s.

AssetDesign

One trading theory I've come upon suggests that a price may find support at the .382 fib line. price would then rally to the .238 fib line above. This suggests a price range between 440 and 470. To test this assumption, I'm looking at the October 460-470 call spread, currently at 2.5. Proving the idea with a move to 470 would pay 10.

AssetDesign

The market's resiliance today really didn't surprise me as I am expecting a test of the high through this or next week. Price continues to find support at the 40 day moving average. At this moment, no reason to expect that to change. It would likely take some major piece of news to disrupt the strong uptrends that exist on so many averages.

AssetDesign Updated 

Three waves or Five? That is the question. It appears that we are entering the final stages of a wave 3, that generally defines a corrective move. I'm anticipating a test of the recent highs this week followed by a Wave 4 move down to the 430 level followed by a final move to the 500 area going into next year. Overall, I continue to be long term bullish. ...

AssetDesign Updated 

There's no telling how rapidly SPY will run out of steam and seriously correct. Short and intermediate trends continue pointed up. Two things lend to establishing put positions here. One is the Parabolic stop has triggered a sell this week. Also, volatility, as illustrated in the BB Band Width indicator is starting to decline. That generally indicates the...

AssetDesign Updated 

TLT tests the closing low of three weeks ago. This used to be a pretty reliable indicator and a buy signal for me. Took a pilot position at 99.80. Stocks appear to be overextended so any selloff might cause a move to bonds.

AssetDesign

An intermediate term look seems to show that we are in a wave 3, currently forming an extension. Don't think that there is much more downside, looking for support at 435. Stocks will continue to rise even as the Fed continues to raise rates until they bust something and need to reverse course.

AssetDesign

Expecting upward thrust this week to fade with price falling back to recent low of 27.75 by next Friday. Selling July 15 29 -31 call bear spreads at $0.75. But do have a long term stock position in my core accounts.