AssetDesign

AssetDesign

Silver looks attractive. I was anticipating a three week test of the low, testing 17, but even with the Fed's remarks that aggressive interest rate hikes will continue, silver held its ground. Saw a piece yesterday on seasonality in precious metals prices. The author suggested that silver is seasonally strong from November through the end of February. The...

AssetDesign

I'm looking for a down week in SLV. It could drop to $17, testing the lows set three weeks ago. If it holds the lows, I will buy SLV at $17 and sell the March 31 $18 option. A t current prices, SLV Mar31 $18 sells for $152. Amortized over five months, a 1.71%, or $30.19 per month is earned (27% annualized). A lower stock price will improve this percentage.

AssetDesign

Among the most noticeable market sectors moving last week was the metals, metals miners and other basic materials stocks. The consensus grows that the Fed is running out of room to continue hiking. The market appears to be viewing that the next 75 basis point hike in November may be the last. All eyes will be on the Fed's forward guidance. Any dovish tone will...

AssetDesign

Among the leaders in country index funds this week, ILF soared more than 9%. Top equities here are miners and banks, two of the best performing industries, especially in the last week. In general, markets are poised for a positive move. SPX appears poised to test the 40 week moving average some 9% higher at 4100. ILF has potential to touch the 31 level, nearly...

AssetDesign

Some years ago, I was in between putting a big position on in SLV or GOLD (formerly ABX) at the $17 level. Both were equally priced. Barrick far outpaced SLV into the forthcoming rally and I regretted not buying it at $17. At $14 - 15 this week, I opened a long position. One thing I read and liked is that future Barrick dividends will include participatory...

AssetDesign

The market has been acting very well but can the momentum continue into next week? Banks and Oil continue to lead the way but metals and mining stocks have certainly shined today. Market seems to be sensing that the Fed will moderate after the next rate hike. I think we hit a low and will begin Wave 3.

AssetDesign

My current stance that we are in a Wave 2 Correction is being challenged. Price remains below the 40 month moving average with still no sign of a bottom. The Bollinger Band Width measurement shows growing strength in the trend. A spike in the VIX that also can indicate a bottom has not yet occurred. The only positive I see is that there was a little support at...

AssetDesign

In recent reviews of long term trends, I have noticed that the 40 month moving average has marked the bottom levels for Waves 2 and 4 in long term impulse moves. Major corrections have broken below the 40 month average. The December 2018 to March 2020 marked the last major correction phase. The move from 218 to 480 was Wave 1. I propose that we are completing...

AssetDesign

Hard to know if this recent move is the start of a wave 5 up in the corrective rally, or wave 1 of a new downtrend. Lots of resistance in the 3950-4050 range. Will be looking for a short entry before the week is out but still riding the upward trend. Daily stochastics has been positive for the past few days so when I have doubts, I refer back to that...

AssetDesign

I've never seen anyone present an Elliott Wave cycle on this time scale. Although the move doesn't maintain a parallel channel, I put forth the case that the Depression era was Wave 2. Wave 4, from 2002 to 2009. Wave 5 likely has much longer to go. Looks like maybe we are just in wave 4 of Wave 1 of 5 for the final 5th long term wave. Any thoughts?

AssetDesign

Not yet breaking out. Downward trend still intact. Bought a bunch of cheap October puts just in case. PM rallies hardly ever last.