Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

Pretty much enough said. Warning given weeks ago. Now it is turning. ALL the leads are bearish, red flags ON Just waiting for the playbook to pan out with a hard pull back. Last week we already saw the equity markets do a trend reversal pattern of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Time to deliver the main Bearish course... Stay safe!

Auguraltrader

As pointed previously for the last few years... the SG10Y Singapore Govt 10 year Bond Yields chart have an uncanny correlation to give us a heads up on when the US Equity markets like the S&P500 SPY SPX are going to keel over and drop. On such instance is here and now. A higher high and a clear breakout after a Fibonacci retracement, within a bigger retracement....

Auguraltrader

Just yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below. So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of...

Auguraltrader

As expected, not a good finish, not a great start. Now, a potential trend change pattern might be forming. This pattern has a series of two of each Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). With that criteria fulfilled (LL 926 and 925.75), the Critical Support Line can be drawn at 925.75. A breach and breakdown to close below 925.75 is likely to send the US equities...

Auguraltrader

In this second part, the Crude Futures Daily chart is used. In this chart, there are marked points where the SuperTrend Buy signal is triggered and is coincided by a green Rate of VolDiv (RoVD, bottom panel). There is one on 8 October but there was no comcomitant indication and clearly it "failed". The others that fulfilled the condition are marked with a yellow...

Auguraltrader

Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on. Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next. For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick. In essence, the...

Auguraltrader

The Weekly Leading Indicators have had broken into Bearish mode. SG10Y have broken up of a trendline TIPS and TLT have broken down support JNK similarly broke down of support The combined US Equities weekly chart are at an indecision range, but daily chart analyis tells of a more bearish story. SOXL is holding up somewhat though. So while all 4 Leading Indicators...

Auguraltrader

Quick analysis of the Combimed US Equities daily chart... A significant rebound last week put the closing back into the decision box. Thing is, it went out the other end, as expected it would, BUT ended with a doji (indecision candlestick) and came back into the box... which suggest an exit to thru the lower end. This is abou to happen over the last days of the...

Auguraltrader

Previously, called for a moderated 88K BTCUSD by the end pf 2024. Its two days away and currently about 93K. What I like about these recent downside targets is that they get close but not there nor exceeded. This tells me that there is underlying demand. However, as previously marked, it really appears that regardless of support currently, there should be a...

Auguraltrader

One week to wipeout the last five and a half weeks, at leasst 70% of the rally gains. What does that tell you? Very strong and surprising large bear. So the EWS (Singapore Straits Times Index ETF) is telling us so... MACD has a lower high, obviously weak, and now a cross down. The Rate of VolDiv custom indicator is pointing to continued lower inflows since...

Auguraltrader

Previously marked that BTCUSD would make a Mid-Dec 2024 top, at about 107K. Happened 17 Dec as previously marked! DONE and checked sweetly. This was folllowed by an a large bearish marubozu candlestick downwards which broke back into the decision box, indicating that it would go out the other side. And it did, just yesterday, but it rebounded within the day to...

Auguraltrader

Here is a rehash of the relationship between the Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yields and US Equities ETF, SPY (Blue Line). Noted that when the SG10Y technically breaks out, the SPY technically breaks down, and vice versa. This is not 100% but happens an estimated 80% of the time, and recent occurences since September are marked out with bullish green or bearish red...

Auguraltrader

ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators. You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough. There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year....

Auguraltrader

Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best...

Auguraltrader

PReviouslyly posted about the Bearish outlook for the Weekly :Leading Indicators... now it appears that Monday is giving the Daily Leading Indicators a new outlook. A possible Bullish turnaround... Breakdowns and Breakouts observed.

Auguraltrader

I know that there are many people out there projecting Bitcoin movements, and some are accurate, while others are, well..., less accurate. I think we need to learn and discern what is sound, what is probable and what should we follow. Here I present a continuation of the usual projections that I have been doing for bitcoin, and more, including market instruments,...

Auguraltrader

Managed to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from...

Auguraltrader

Not so much bullish from US elections, and quite the opposite really. Already broke the support line as previously marked. Now, it is in a decision zone. MACD is crossing down and VolDiv already crossed down. Looks a more bearish outcome tho... even with a surging US market, the EWS would probably taper down instead of fall off cliff kind of thing.