Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators. You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough. There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year....

Auguraltrader

Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best...

Auguraltrader

PReviouslyly posted about the Bearish outlook for the Weekly :Leading Indicators... now it appears that Monday is giving the Daily Leading Indicators a new outlook. A possible Bullish turnaround... Breakdowns and Breakouts observed.

Auguraltrader

I know that there are many people out there projecting Bitcoin movements, and some are accurate, while others are, well..., less accurate. I think we need to learn and discern what is sound, what is probable and what should we follow. Here I present a continuation of the usual projections that I have been doing for bitcoin, and more, including market instruments,...

Auguraltrader

Managed to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from...

Auguraltrader

Not so much bullish from US elections, and quite the opposite really. Already broke the support line as previously marked. Now, it is in a decision zone. MACD is crossing down and VolDiv already crossed down. Looks a more bearish outcome tho... even with a surging US market, the EWS would probably taper down instead of fall off cliff kind of thing.

Auguraltrader

Oddly enough, I did not follow one of the great events of 2024. And prior analyses was made on technical indication. When a reversal like this happens, it is rather extreme, and technicals can be put aside. With the election outcome, markets are suddenly RISK ON and very bullish. You see this bullishness with a Marubozu type candle that broke through two...

Auguraltrader

Spoken about the not Perfected Setup… where the highest of the sixth and seventh candle It’s not superseded by the highest of the eighth or ninth candle. So you can expect that in the next 3 to 5 candles, the Setup high (Also, the highest of the sixth or seventh candle) should be superseded before retracement proper. They noted in this chart that the purple box...

Auguraltrader

This is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators. The SG10Y is about to break out The JNK bonds are breaking down Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now) The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are...

Auguraltrader

The combined US equities chart failed to push significantly and is consolidating. when it does this, it looks like it is rolling over to fall off a cliff. IF we look carefully, besides the weakening technical indicators, there is also weakening price action, with the second or third lower high in the hourly time frame. That said, the decision box needs to be...

Auguraltrader

It has been a while since I pulled up this chart. Missed on the bullish breakouts twice in 2024. Thing is that it is very obvious the technical indicators are stretched and long in the teeth... and a recent spike ended with a consolidation. Given all these, a break down of the condolidation support would spell a strong retracement. Coming soon... akan datang.

Auguraltrader

Weekly SOLUSD chart shows an indicative picture perfect Bullish burst. 1. MACD and VolDiv crossover on the bullish territories. The last time this might have happened would be about July 2021 (VolDiv had not enough data to be plotted atat that time); 2. a large consolidation since early 2024 appears to be breaking out and a potential break on the long term...

Auguraltrader

Looking back at the BTCUSD weekly charts, there appears to be similar, if not the same, technical conditions before the start of a massive BTCUSD rally. This comes with both MACD and VolDiv crossovers and a breakout of a trendline after a period of consolidation. Marked out by time lines, the Green lines are the most similar to current (yellow), and the orange...

Auguraltrader

Looking back at the BTCUSD weekly charts, there appears to be similar, if not the same, technical conditions before the start of a massive BTCUSD rally. Marked out by time lines, the Green lines are the most similar to current (yellow), and the orange has only a differing VolDiv. All are breakout points and appears to be great accumulation start points for the...

Auguraltrader

Very quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster. Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review......

Auguraltrader

I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see... This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since. As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The...

Auguraltrader

As previously marked out, the bullish flip was done, and is pretty overdone. Yesterday's close sealed it for a retracement, and technicals (MACD and VolDiv) support that view. should be seeing a downdraft to the last low visit (yellow ellipse). Possible stall at blue ellipse, but look for further breakdown. Exceeding the last low to close below is Bearish. Let...

Auguraltrader

Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to...