Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

CRYPTO:BTCUSD cycle tops have had greater alignment to peaks in China’s 10 year rate, and lows have had greater alignment to the level of global net liquidity. Relative to extremes at those data points, halvings almost appear neutral. This leads me to be cautious of too much market optimism generated for a combination of spot ETF approval and the upcoming...

Ben_1148x2

Unless we see NYSE:XOM make a strong move above 105, this looks like the end of wave 4. We would expect a 5th wave to take us below the December low.

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:LOW current movement is similar to what we see across the consumer discretionary sector. It has also been consolidating in a long term symmetrical triangle. There are three supporting areas that I've kept an eye on: The 12/13/23 gap (215). Price fell through this level yesterday. The variable weighted average price anchored to the 11/2/23 breakout...

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:MRK has shown a strong breakout. We see a steady secondary downtrend from May 2023 to early December. Anchoring a VWAP to the May 202 high and another to the October low give us a clear indication of support and resistance. I missed the breakout and retest in early December, as well as the break above the VWAP from the prior high. Taking a fib retrace from...

Ben_1148x2

The alt-coin market is hot right now. This could continue alongside anticipation of halving, possibly driven by those feeling priced out of BTC and seeking faster returns. Or we could see alts cool down as speculators rotate back to BTC. TOTAL3 is the total market cap of alt-coins (cryptocurrency less BTC and ETH), representing the most speculative opportunities...

Ben_1148x2

I like the look of the breakout from $NYSE:MOS. Inverse head and shoulders, breaking above a descending wedge, momentum building, and multiple closes above the VWAP anchored to the August high.

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

Be cautious buying this uptrend, and be especially cautious trying to catch the bottom of a mediocre company in a downtrend. I don't view the current environment to be fully risk off or fully risk on, but showing signs of the last leg of the business cycle. My preference is to target 20-30% cash and focus on companies with a high sharpe ratio, and lower ...

Ben_1148x2

State of the market and key past trends Earlier this year I wrote this piece on possible outcomes for monetary policy and what to look for next in the market, and much of this held true. Here is what we can observe in a current update: Local bottoms in risk assets continue to coincide with local bottoms in global net liquidity. Some debate whether central...

Ben_1148x2

I recently posted about the potential to take advantage of seasonal weakness for $NASDAQ:COST. I'm embarrassed to say that I had lost track of them being overdue to offer a special dividend. Since 2015 they have offered a special dividend every 2-3 years. Let's look at how the special dividend announcements have influenced sentiment and interacted with seasonal...

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:COP loves breaking out of descending secondary trends and filling proportional ranges. If history repeats, this sets us up for a move to 124-129. Note that we've hit the volume weighted average price anchored to the prior high. This might act as resistance and trigger a retest of the breakout. This happens ~70% of the time with breakouts from descending...

Ben_1148x2

We’re in a seasonally strong time of the year for the defense sector. NYSE:NOC NOC tends to perform well in the first half of the year. It recently hit its first target in this measured range from the breakout of a descending wedge. A move to ~495 would align to the full range and match the seasonal performance in Jan/Feb. Companies in the defense sector...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:COST is a core holding of mine and one that I use technical analysis to continue building. I've reported multiple setups to build a cost position and recently shared the strong seasonal outlook for November. We have earnings after the close on 12/14, a quad withing on 12/15, and a history of seasonal weakness between December and March. I'll take this...

Ben_1148x2

I am publishing a seasonal opportunity for a ~2 month trade with several small caps. A of the details are listed together on my substack. open.substack.com AMEX:IWM has shown a strong rebound from the October lows, breaking out of a descending wedge on November 3rd, retesting on November 9th, and consistently moving upward since. It is currently testing the...

Ben_1148x2

In September we took a look at the setup forming with ASO and knew that this would take some time to play out. This week we have our first candle body above the the secondary downtrend and looking to reclaim the the primary uptrend. We also have a recent positive MACD crossover. Looking at the proportional range of movement similar to the last breakout...

Ben_1148x2

J.C. Parets had a great post today identifying an 8 month high for AMEX:XLF financials and a break above its descending wedge. x.com This is a deeper dive into the technicals for the sector, beginning with a look at the broader economy and central bank liquidity. Economic outlook The economy remains resilient. Broad economic variables continue to expand....

Ben_1148x2

It will be important to note whether this cluster of anchored VWAPs and key moving averages becomes support or resistance for $NYSE:PG.

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:LLY is a high performing company and my single largest holding. LLY has an incredible pipeline and a strong management team. The GLP1 weight loss medications have undeniable near term and long term potential, and there is strong optimism for the Alzheimer treatment in LLY's pipeline. We need to remain objective to the possibility that the market has priced...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:MSFT has been a top performer among tech. I wouldn't be surprised to encounter resistance between 375-380, but the trend on the weekly and daily time frames support the possibility to exceed $400. I'm looking at any opportunity that comes back to ~$345 for re-accumulation and a move below ~330 as invalidation.